Penn State was entering a very promising 2020 season.
It capped the 2019 campaign with a Cotton Bowl win, but more importantly, the Nittany Lions realized how elite of a disruptor Micah Parsons could be, and Journey Brown seemed to be the next in line of great running backs for Penn State.
The roster also consisted of future first-rounders Jahan Dotson and Odafe Oweh, potential first-rounder Joey Porter Jr., and future pros in Pat Friermuth, Jaquan Brisker, Michael Menet, Will Fries, and countless others
As Penn State was getting ready for a potential championship season in Happy Valley, the world got rocked by the COVID-19 pandemic and arguably no team got impacted harder than the Nittany Lions.
Parsons opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft amid COVID restrictions, Brown had to medically retire, and as the season unfolded key Nittany Lions like Friermuth and Oweh either opted out or had season-ending injuries that crippled the Lions to their first losing season since 2004.
The 2021 season started fast with the Nittany Lions going 5-0 and making the previous season look like an aberration.
In a top-four matchup at Iowa, injuries to quarterback Sean Clifford and defensive tackle PJ Mustipher derailed the Nittany Lions that day, but the rest of the season they would drop six for their final eight games.
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Entering the 2022 season, the Nittany Lions since Minnesota upset in 2019 was 14-13, and the questions surrounding James Franklin, who was awarded a lucrative contract extension in November 2021, it was a make or break for him.
The Nittany Lions delivered for Franklin in 2022 to the tune of an 11-win season, a sure Top 10 ranking in the polls, and a Rose Bowl win, his third New Year’s Six bowl win at Penn State since 2017.
With a giant bounce-back season, why should you buy or sell Penn State with James Franklin?
Three Reasons to Buy
#1 He Has The Right Staff
One of the core components that made Penn State a dangerous threat in the Big Ten between 2016 and 2017 was Franklin was surrounded by excellent assistants, especially on the offensive side of the ball.
On those staffs, Franklin had future head coaches in Joe Moorhead (Mississippi State), Ricky Rahne (Old Dominion), Brent Pry (Virginia Tech), Charles Huff (Marshall), two future Broyles Award-winning assistants in Joe Brady and Josh Gattis, as well as two future SEC defensive coordinators in Tim Banks (Tennessee) and Sean Spencer (Florida).
Following the 2017 season, most of the high-end offensive minds left Penn State and leaving Franklin to change coordinators multiple times and really identify coaches at all levels on his staff to find.
The odyssey on the offense has been the toughest.
Landing former Oklahoma State offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich has helped tremendously and paid dividends in the recruitment of Drew Allar.
After Charles Huff left Penn State for Mississippi State with Moorhead, Penn State needed to find that dynamic recruiter and running backs coach that helped usher in a new golden age of Penn State running backs.
Franklin identified Ja’juan Seider and has developed himself as one of the top recruiters in the nation. 247 ranks Seider No. 5 in the recruiter rankings in the country.
Entering his third year coaching the offensive line, Phil Trautwein really needed to show progress as the offensive line play had been on a decline leading into his hiring and poor in his first two seasons.
The Nittany Lions in 2022 was able to find balance offensively because of the improved play in the offensive line as prospects Juice Scruggs and Olu Fashanu NFL scouts are salivating over.
Franklin’s staff reclamation project hit a critical junction last offseason when Pry took the Virginia Tech job.
Pry had been a stalwart and loyal lieutenant of Franklin’s and finding the right defensive coordinator was imperative for Franklin.
Penn State made a splash hire by bringing in the much-maligned former Miami Hurricanes head coach Manny Diaz.
The impact Diaz had on the Nittany Lion defense was huge in 2022, with the Nittany Lions finishing in the Top 20 in scoring defense, total defense, and rush defense.
#2 Penn State Has Found A Running Game Again
What propelled Penn State early in Franklin’s tenure which led the Nittany Lions to a Big Ten Championship in 2016 and three New Year’s Six bowl appearances in four years was a dynamic ground game.
Saquon Barkley, Miles Sanders, and Journey Brown were all critical pieces to the Nittany Lions’ success.
During the 2020 and 2021 seasons, the Nittany Lions were trying to find the right replacements.
The Nittany Lions dealt with a revolving door at tailback between Ricky Slade, Cazaiah Holmes, Noah Cain, and John Lovett amongst others but no one was able to assert themselves as the alpha back’s that Barkley, Sanders, and Brown were.
A key component in 2022 was the impact freshmen Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen have had on the Nittany Lions.
The freshmen combined this season for nearly 2,000 yards rushing and 24 touchdowns rushing and receiving, the prior season the top three Nittany Lions backs rushed barely over 1,000 yards and had 6 touchdowns combined.
Moving forward, opposing defenses will be on their toes with a balanced attack of the pass and run from the Nittany Lions.
#3 Recruiting High School and Transfer Portal
One thing Nittany Lion fans will never complain about with Franklin is his ability to recruit.
He finds gems, lands high-end talent, and overall gets great recruiting classes.
The thing Franklin and other coaches had to learn was leveraging the transfer portal.
Franklin saw firsthand with Mel Tucker at Michigan State if you find the right pieces for your program you can turn things around fast.
The Nittany Lions went from losing key pieces to gaining difference makers whether it was Arnold Ebiketie, Mitchell Tinsley, or “Chop” Robinson.
The Nittany Lions have added from the transfer portal for the 2023 season former All-ACC defensive back Storm Duck and wide receiver Devin Carter.
One of Franklin’s bigger criticisms is notable decommitments over the years such as Justin Fields, Dont’e Thornton, and Tomarrion Parker amongst others.
The key is Franklin isn’t afraid to go into recruit nationally and reach for these prospects.
If Penn State keeps winning big, there will be fewer of these decommitments.
Three Reasons to Sell
#1 Ohio State and Michigan
Penn State has to contend with in the current configuration of the Big Ten, annually with Ohio State and Michigan, two teams Franklin has virtually no success against.
Since joining Penn State in 2014, Franklin is 4-14 against the Buckeyes and Wolverines.
The thing is neither team looks to be slowing down either.
When Franklin takes on Top 10 competition his record isn’t much better.
The Rose Bowl win over Utah gave Franklin his third win in 18 opportunities against Top 10 competition at Penn State (Franklin overall is 3-20 against Top 10 teams going 0-5 at Vanderbilt).
The poor track record alone is reason enough to doubt Franklin.
#2 Can Franklin Develop An Elite Quarterback?
Drew Allar is the first five-star quarterback Franklin successfully recruited to Penn State and one everyone will keep an eye on.
When you look at the talent Penn State has sent to the NFL since Franklin arrived in 2014, he has been a consistent pipeline at all positions except the quarterback position.
Franklin inherited a five-star talent in Christian Hackenberg and it never seemed Franklin and Hackenberg meshed from the get-go.
Penn State has seen consistent quarterback play from Trace McSorley and Sean Clifford.
McSorley and Clifford seemed to fit a nimble quarterback profile who both can burn you with their arms and legs. Allar is more like Hackenberg, and has a pocket presence to him but is more looking to beat the opposition with his arm.
The knocks I have on McSorley and Clifford might not be their fault completely.
With the Nittany Lions playing Ohio State every year, the Buckeyes are on a string of quarterbacks who are Day 1 material in Justin Fields, C.J. Stroud, and Dwayne Haskins that NFL franchises are looking to build their organizations around.
Clifford and McSorley are similar that they each may have long careers in the NFL working as backups who can fill in the gaps from time to time.
That disparity has been one of the key differences in why Ohio State has won eight of nine matchups against Penn State.
For Franklin, can he develop Allar into a Heisman-contending quarterback, NFL teams would spend a Day 1 pick on is key for Penn State to make up the difference between them and Ohio State.
#3 Talent Evaluation
Franklin, like the rest of college football coaches, isn’t immune to big misses on the recruiting trail but when Franklin has come up short or made the wrong call it has left Penn State scratching their heads.
Will Levis may go down as a big what-if for Penn State fans as most NFL draft gurus have the Kentucky quarterback being a Day 1 NFL Draft pick.
It is one that got away and one Penn State fans may wonder what Levis could have done had coaches sided with him instead of Sean Clifford.
Franklin’s notable recruiting folly has to be his 2018 recruiting class.
Considered at the time one of the best classes Penn State ever had, it did indeed produce guys like Micah Parsons, Odafe Oweh, and Jahan Dotson who were first-round picks in the NFL as well as stalwarts such as Pat Friermuth, Jesse Luketa, Rasheed Walker who were drafted.
Current Nittany Lions such as PJ Mustipher, Juice Scruggs, and Nick Tarburton will be looked at to be selected in the 2023 NFL Draft.
While still fruitful it is the busts and misses that cost the Nittany Lions in 2020 and 2021.
Levis was part of this recruiting class and was a four-star recruit.
The biggest busts of this class were some of the class’s biggest highlights in former five stars running back Ricky Slade and wide receiver Justin Shorter.
Another miss was tight end Zack Kuntz, who like Levis lost out to another prominent starter in Friermuth. Kuntz last season finished second nationally amongst tight ends with 73 receptions.
Overall this recruiting class lost 10 players to the transfer portal or medical retirement, something that hurt Penn State later.
With Southern Cal and UCLA entering the league in 2024 and teams such as Wisconsin and Nebraska upgrading their head coaches to proven talent evaluators and developers, and still having to contend with Michigan and Ohio State, Franklin cannot miss this bad moving forward.
Conclusion
If there was ever a time for Franklin to break through into the national championship picture, the time is now.
He has the staff, a high-end signal caller, elite running backs, receivers, and tight ends, as well as an offensive line that seems to be getting more high-end recruits and better results.
The defense is deep and Penn State produces specialists the NFL covets.
2023 is a big year for the Nittany Lions, if players develop on the proper course and stay healthy there is no reason not to expect Penn State to contend for the Big Ten Championship but one of the four College Football Playoff spots.
Penn State has to continue to be physical in the trenches and dynamic on the edges, it needs elite quarterback play to take that toughest step, the elite step.
I wrote back in October the time was then as Penn State approached the Michigan and Ohio State games. Penn State ultimately failed in those games but was able to rebound to win a New Year’s Six bowl and Top 10 ranking.
For the Nittany Lions as the offseason begins, to prepare themselves for the elite step and put in the work to beat Ohio State and Michigan this fall.
It’s time for Penn State players, fans, and community to buy James Franklin because there is no better opportunity than now for him to get Penn State back to national championship contention.
