Lanning Gives Away Another Big One
by Kyle Golik
In his now-viral pregame speech prior to the Colorado game, Oregon head coach Dan Lanning began motivating his team, "The Cinderella story is over, man. They're fighting for clicks; we're fighting for wins,” but then posed a question, “There's a difference, right?”
While Lanning would go on further and answer that games are fought on grass and not Hollywood, yesterday’s disaster in Seattle brings his viral moment full circle.
Lanning dropped to 0-3 against the two main opponents all Oregon fans judge their head coaches in games against Washington and Oregon State. The second-year head coach is by no means on the hot seat in Eugene, but I can tell you while Lanning isn’t Cinderella, the honeymoon period is over.
That 0-3 record Lanning now has against Oregon's two biggest rivals can be attributed to being aggressive calls that were unnecessary.
In last season’s encounter in Eugene, Oregon and Washington were tied at 34 in the fourth quarter with 1:26 remaining. Oregon faced a fourth and one on their own 34-yard line. Lanning elected to go for it, the aggressiveness of extending the drive and having the confidence to win the game. when it backfired, it allowed Washington to kick the game-winning field goal and take a 37-34 loss.
In Corvallis last season, Oregon blew a 31-10 advantage as Oregon State surged back to get within a field goal. Oregon still maintained a 34-31 lead with nearly 10 minutes to go in the fourth quarter. But it was a fourth and one on the Oregon 29-yard line, and quarterback Bo Nix was stifled by a Beavers defense that had all the momentum.
Someone needs to check Ancestry and see if Lanning and Los Angeles Chargers head coach Brandon Staley are at all related because of their proclivities of going for it on fourth down deep in their own territory.
Sep 30, 2023; Stanford, California, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning celebrates after defeating the Stanford Cardinal at Stanford Stadium.
© Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
Yesterday, Lanning, like a degenerate gambler trying to get his fix, went for it three times on fourth down in three critical junctions. All three backfired.
In the first gamble game at the end of the first half, instead of trying for a field goal to close the gap to a point, Lanning went for it. Of the three, this one was the least egregious of the gambles, if you make it in the end zone you leave Washington backpedaling in the locker room knowing Oregon gets the ball to start the third quarter with the lead.
A lot of credit on this play goes to Washington cornerback Jabbar Muhammad who was on Oregon wide receiver Troy Franklin like glue. Nix was motioning to Franklin to come back to the back of the end zone, as Nix extended the play on a bootleg, Muhammad’s defense of Franklin forced Nix to throw into a crowd and incomplete ruining the first gamble.
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The second gamble came in the third quarter, Oregon was on a time-consuming 13-play seven-minute drive getting to the Washington eight-yard line. Instead of opting for a field goal which would have closed the gap to a one-possession game, Lanning went for it. This time a Bo Nix pass intended for Troy Franklin was thrown too low and fell incomplete.
Despite all the gambling miscues, Oregon found a way to retake the lead early in the fourth quarter on a Jordan James touchdown to go up 33-29. At this point of the game, Washington's offense had been sputtering punting on consecutive possessions.
Had Lanning elected for the points, it would have been 39-29 if everything else played out the same. Can you imagine the different strategy Washington would have taken and the pressure on them?
Having a two-possession lead would have only magnified an epic goal-line stand where Oregon successfully kept Washington out of the end on three plays within the two-yard line. That sort of momentum would have given Oregon the game.
Even without the field goals, Oregon had the lead, had the momentum, and ran the clock down to 2:11 left. The Ducks on the Washington 47, and coming from a defensive program like Georgia, you know that Kirby Smart would want to punt the ball and force the opponent to go the length of the field for any points.
But it was here that Lanning had his final - and most egregious - gamble. Had it worked, I don’t have a story and a gambler feels the “Law of Averages” would come through at some point. Why I felt this was the most egregious was on the previous play, Washington’s defensive line absolutely mauled the Oregon offensive line where Washington defensive lineman Ulumoo Ale had stuffed Jordan James for a yard loss.
The pressure on third down from the Huskies' defense, also came on fourth down, while Nix was able to scramble to buy some time, Nix could only one hop a pass intended for Tez Johnson incomplete.
The explosive Washington offense which had laid dormant for much of the second half and got stuffed on the goal line, responded quickly on a highlight 35-yard pass from Michael Penix Jr. to Ja’Lynn Polk to get into the red zone. On the ensuing play, Penix found Rome Odunze for the go-ahead touchdown.
While Oregon had an opportunity to tie the game, it should have been ahead by a field goal and that is on Lanning.
Apologetic ESPN analyst Kirk Herbstreit seemed to justify the gambling, saying the aggressiveness was the identity of the Ducks. I understood where Herbstreit was coming from, the tone you set can be a psychological difference-maker for the opposition.
The difference is Washington wasn’t phased and Herbstreit wasn’t familiar with the history of Lanning’s aggressive failures that seem to cost Oregon in the most critical moments.
When points opportunities present themselves, you have to take them, especially in an even matchup. When you miss those points, you often begin to chase them later at some point and in this case, lose the game.
With the Pac-12 Championship Game in Las Vegas, if Oregon and Washington both earn the trip and have the rematch, it is a gambler’s paradise and one Lanning should learn to lay off unnecessary gambles.
