By Jay Berry
Lincoln Riley is just halfway through his third season as head coach at USC, and the program might already be questioning their 6-figure investment.
USC hired Riley in 2022 to a 10-year contract worth $110 million. The hiring was not without drama. While he was still in Oklahoma, there were rumors that he was heading to Southern Cal. Riley denied the rumors, but the following day, just hours after they had played Oklahoma State, the move was announced.
At the time, USC Athletic Director Mike Bohn said he was ecstatic. And how could he not be? He was getting a coach who had taken Oklahoma to the college football playoffs three times: a thrilling overtime Rose Bowl semifinal game against Georgia, a loss to Alabama, and a loss to the juggernaut LSU team.
During Riley’s first season in Southern Cal in 2022, they finished the season with a record of 11–3. They got blown out by Utah in the Pac-12 Championship Game and then lost to Tulane in the Cotton Bowl.
That 2022 season saw USC quarterback Caleb Williams win the Heisman Trophy. According to the Heisman website, Williams’ passing yards (4,075) were the eighth-most among Heisman winners, and his 47 total touchdowns (49) were the ninth-most.
In 2023, the wheels started to fall off as they finished with an 8–5 record and a bowl win against Louisville.
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Riley’s teams have always had successful offenses that could put up enormous totals against anyone. His downfall has always been his inability to have a defense that could stop anyone.
Then, with two games left in the 2023 regular season, a change was made. Defensive coordinator Alex Grinch was let go after his defense allowed 572 yards in a 52-42 loss to Washington. Grinch had previously served as the defensive coordinator for Riley’s teams at Oklahoma, so it wasn’t surprising that there was no defense at USC given the lack of defense at Oklahoma under him.
The USC program hoped that things would be different this year. After the Trojans’ opening season 27-20 win at a neutral site against LSU, there was optimism that the Trojans had turned the page and didn’t have to get into wild west shootouts to win. That LSU win, at the moment, looks like a quality win as the Tigers sit with a record of 5-1.
Unfortunately, this season overall does not look good for the Southern California program, as they have a record of 3–4. USC has five remaining games. Three of those are at home against Rutgers, Nebraska, and playoff contender Notre Dame. Two are road games against Washington and UCLA.
The problem with this year’s team isn’t the defense – they cannot close games. They have led in the fourth quarter in all seven games this season. Their inability to finish has them with a losing record seven games into the season.
The Trojans’ offense this season has been as explosive as Iowa’s.
Offensive Explosive Play Rate in Conference Play
OVERALL
Iowa: 12.9%
USC: 11.4%RUSHING
Iowa: 12.1%
USC: 10.4%PASSING
Iowa: 14.1%
USC: 11.4%— Tom Fornelli (@TomFornelli) October 21, 2024
He still has time to figure things out, as he has an enormous buyout and a 2025 recruiting class that some consider a Top 10 group. But that seat could get fairly warm if they finish 7-5 or worse. 8–4 is their best chance that might not happen. No matter how this season finishes, there will be big expectations of turning things around in 2025. After all, he has a six-figure contract and a buyout rumored to be over $80 million.
With seven years left, the USC program can’t afford high-priced mediocrity.
