Bets in college football surrounding the state of Texas should be hot at http://bettingtx.com this season. Here are some intriguing win totals and props to consider.
1. Texas over/under wins at 9.5.
DraftKings set this number, and it’s an interesting one, as Texas won 8 games last season, so quite a jump is expected. If they go 9-3 and win a bowl game, you’re in the money, but that’s a risky bet. Texas is at Alabama in week two, so that’s likely a loss. But beyond that? They should be favored to beat Baylor, Iowa State, and Houston on the road and have easy wins over Rice and Wyoming. So it comes down to TCU on the road and Kansas State and Texas Tech at home as well as the Red River against Oklahoma. I could see 9-3 and hope for the bowl win, but I could also see 8-4 and Steve Sarkisian in big trouble. Take the under.
2. Jimbo Fisher +350 to go over .500 this season.
I made this one up, and I like it. If you have me these odds, I’d take it as there is no way Jimbo Fisher and Texas A&M go 5-7 again. Even if they go 6-6, they should be able to hammer out a meaningless bowl win to get you over .500. New Mexico, Abilene Christian, and UL Monroe should be three wins, and add in Miami and Auburn as likely wins, and you’re at five. You have to hope they can put together two wins at home against South Carolina and Mississippi State and get to 7-5 with losses to Alabama, LSU, Tennessee, Ole Miss, and Arkansas. I’d take the +350 if the odds were given to me.
3. Quinn Ewers passing TDs, over/under 30.
I made this one up, too, as I haven’t seen TD props for Ewers yet. But there’s still a lot of buzz about the former five-star heading into the fall. Last year Ewers threw 15 TD passes on less than 300 attempts as he missed some time to injury. Assuming he throws more than 400 times, and with the weapons he has, led by Xavier Worthy, you’d think he can clear 30, right? Don’t count on it. Max Duggan had 32 last year on 419 passes, and only 14 players had more than 30 all last season. So you’d have to assume a jump in pass attempts, a healthy season, and Ewers not getting yanked for a guy named Arch Manning that all the boosters and fans will be chanting for if he struggles. I’d take the under.
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4. Houston to win the Big 12 at +12,500
8-5 last season was a bit of a disappointment for the program, and everyone is talking more about UCF, BYU, and Cincinnati than they are about the Cougars. Caesars has Houston as the longest of long shots to win the Big 12, and I agree, but taking a flier on $5 to win $62 grand? Why the heck not? The Big 12 has parity, but it lacks elite teams, with TCU’s run last season likely a fluke, Texas and Oklahoma questionable, and no clear winner predicted. Skip the Starbucks for a day and take a shot on Dana Holgorsen and his staff to work some magic. While Kansas drilled them 48-30 last season, they almost beat Texas Tech in a 33-30 loss.
5. Texas Tech pulls a TCU at +900.
Caesars gives Tech the fourth-best odds to win the Big 12 behind Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas State, and I was hoping the odds would be longer. Joey McGuire has a sneaky good team with a solid defense, and if Tyler Shough can stay healthy, they can do some damage. They went 8-5 last season and surprised a lot of folks, but they also won three games in overtime and got beaten by very average teams like NC State, Baylor, and Oklahoma State. I like what McGuire has going, but I’m not ready to try to cash in on these odds unless they get closer to +1500.
