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Luck of the Draw: 4 Big Ten Teams’ Less Challenging Road to CFP in 2025

What Big Ten teams face the easiest road to Indianapolis and the CFP in 2025? These four teams get our vote.

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Oregon coach Dan Lanning leads his team onto the field before the game against Colorado in Eugene Saturday
Oregon coach Dan Lanning leads his team onto the field before the game against Colorado in Eugene Saturday

By Micheal Germanese

Every conference looks for balance amongst its teams when the schedule is done for the upcoming year. The nonconference portion is out of their hands, with schools scheduling those themselves sometimes years in advance. When it comes to conference opponents, that is entirely up to the conference itself with the goal to maintain an even playing field across the board. But with the new super conference and the elimination of divisions, balancing the schedule is next to impossible.

A nine-game schedule only allows half the teams in the Big Ten Conference to play. Some top teams won’t play each other for a few years in this new era. A team like Penn State, who played Michigan every year being a divisional opponent, miss the Wolverines in 2024 and again in 2025.

Protected rivalries also make it more difficult to balance schedules. Two of the top teams in the conference, Michigan and Ohio State, will play every year. While a team like Illinois plays Northwestern and Purdue. With parity missing among teams and when matchups are guaranteed, it is next to impossible to balance the schedule with these games already set.

The size of the conference, having no control over nonconference games, and protected rivalries all play a role in making it impossible for the Big Ten to balance the schedule. It’s those reasons that have now led to some teams playing a gauntlet to make the Big Ten Championship or the College Football Playoff. While other team’s roads look to be a lot easier to gain a spot in the playoff.

Here are the four teams that had the luck of the draw and ended up with the easiest road to the CFP in 2025.

Oregon Ducks

Home Montana State, Home Oklahoma State, Away Northwestern, Home Oregon State, Away Penn State, Home Indiana, Away Rutgers, Home Wisconsin, Away Iowa, Home Minnesota, Home USC, Away Washington

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Oregon was the only Power Four program in 2024 to go undefeated in the regular season. They earned the No. 1 spot in the CFP after winning the Big Ten Championship in their first year in the conference. Their reward was an extended break and a trip to the Rose Bowl to take on Ohio State. By the time Oregon started to find their rhythm again, the game was already over. The disappointment now gives Oregon added motivation coming into the 2025 season.

The good news for Oregon, Ohio State is its biggest threat to repeat as Big Ten champs and is not on the schedule in 2025. The Ducks also wont play Michigan, Nebraska or Illinois. They will, however, still play Penn State, Indiana, Iowa and USC. Their toughest two-game stretch will come on the road at Happy Vally and home to Indiana.

Oregon’s start to the 2025 season is nothing to write home about. The first four games will give Dan Lanning time to break in Danta Moore as the new starting quarterback. The toughest game of the first four looks to be Montana State who won the Big Sky Conference a year ago. Oklahoma State was a disappointing 3-9 last season while Oregon State was 5-7. Northwestern will be Oregon’s Big Ten first opponent. The Wildcats finished 4-8 last season and are picked to be one of the bottom teams this season.

For Oregon it’s simple. Can Moore be the quarterback everyone is expecting him to be in 2025? If he can, there will be no excuse for Oregon not to be back in the CFP with the schedule they where given.

Michigan Wolverines

Home New Mexico, Away Oklahoma, Home Central Michigan, Away Nebraska, Home Wisconsin, Away USC, Home Washington, Awat Michigan State, Home Purdue, Neutral Northwestern, Away Maryland, Home Ohio State.

On paper, Michigan is coming off a disappointing season going 8-5 and missing the CFP for the first time in three years. It was a season Michigan needed, however, to bring the program into the 21st century. Michigan faced several uphill battles in 2024, from coaching changes to losing key players to the NFL and a tough schedule.

Michigan’s schedule in 2024 featured Texas (CFP), Ohio State (National Champions) Indiana (CFP), Oregon (B1G champ, CFP), and Illinois (AP Top 25). This upcoming season looks nothing like the one the Wolverines faced in 2024. Michigan will miss almost all the top projected teams in the Big Ten. Oregon, Penn State, Indiana, Illinois and Iowa are all missing from the schedule.

Unlike almost every Southeastern Conference team, Michigan doesn’t play three non-Power Four opponents as they head to Norman, Okla. in week two for a matchup with Oklahoma. The Sooners, like Michigan, are coming off a disappointing year and this matchup could define both teams’ seasons.

The Wolverines’ first six games of the season look to be what will outline how 2025 plays out. Michigan goes to Nebraska on Sept. 20, home against Wisconsin on Oct. 4 and then on the road at USC on Oct. 11. Along with the Sooners early in the season, if the Wolverines can come through this stretch unscathed, 2025 should be a big year.

The one big negative for Michigan’s schedule is that they won’t play in back-to-back home games in 2025. But their only back-to-back road games come against Maryland and Northwestern, who are both are projected to win less than five games.

Nebraska Cornhuskers

Neutral Cincinnati, Home Akron, Home Houston Christian, Home Michigan, Home Michigan State, Away Maryland, Away Minnesota, Home Northwestern, Home USC, Away UCLA, Away Penn State, Home Iowa

The 2025 season will be Matt Rhule’s third season as Nebraska’s head coach. If history is any indication of how the season will go for Nebraska, it should be a great year. Rhule took over Temple in 2013 and went from 2-10 in his first year, to a 10-4 record in his third. Baylor followed the same growth under Rhule going from 1-11 in his first year, to 11-3 in his third. And all signs point to Rhule doing the same this season at Nebraska.

A big reason for that is the very favorable schedule Nebraska finds themselves with. Unlike Wisconsin, which faces one of the toughest seven-game stretches in college football, Nebraska’s biggest stretch is their final two games of the season going to Penn State then home at Iowa.

Rhule made headlines after cancelling the spring game for fear of tempering. The truth is Rhule will have every opportunity to evaluate his team and make changes thanks to a weak nonconference schedule. Nebraska opens the season at Arrowhead Stadium against Cincinnati then heads home for matchups against Akron and Houston Christian. By the time Big Ten plays starts for Nebraska, they should have had every chance to get the offense and defense going.

Nebraska kicks off Big Ten play Sept. 20 against Michigan at home—a game that could have playoff implications for both teams. Nebraska’s next challenging game comes on Nov. 1 When USC comes to Memorial Stadium. Nebraska finally ends the season at Penn State on Nov. 22 and at home with Iowa on Nov. 28. Missing from the 2025 slate is Oregon, Ohio State, Indiana and Illinois—four of the top five teams expected to compete for the Big Ten title.

When Wisconsin Luke Fickell saw the 2025 schedule his first thought must have been, “what did I do to deserve this?” Rhule, on the other hand, was saying “thank you” for not scheduling so many of the projected top teams in 2025. The schedule Nebraska was handed in 2025 should make this the year the Cornhuskers finally gets back to being relevant nationally.

Illinois Fighting Illini

Home Western Illinois, Away Duke, Home Western Michigan, Away Indiana, Home USC, Away Purdue, Home Ohio State, Away Washington, Home Rutgers, Home Maryland, Away Wisconsin, Home Northwestern

Illinois is entering the 2025 season having to only replace five starters from a year ago when they finished 10-3 and ranked 16th in the AP Poll. Bret Bielema has Illinois set up to make its first CFP appearance in program history. But like Indiana, Illinois will face the same criticism if they belong in the CFP. Illinois will need a season that is as close to perfect as possible if they hope to make the CFP.

The Fighting Illini’s nonconference schedule has only two non-Power Four teams in Western Illinois and Western Michigan. The problem—their third nonconference game is against Duke, a team that no one sees as a football power. Yes they are an Atlantic Coast Conference opponent, but the Blue Devils won’t add to Illinois’ strength of schedule argument at the end of the year.

If Illinois is going to make the CFP in 2025, they must upset either Ohio State or Indiana while winning the rest of its games. With this schedule, if Illinois loses two games the CFP committee could easily leave them out of the playoff for a bigger three-loss team. But that’s what happens when Oregon, Michigan, Iowa, Nebraska and Penn State are all left off the schedule.

Bielema looks to have all the pieces in place for Illinois to make a playoff run. Ohio State comes to Champaign on Oct. 15. That day, fans will know if Illinois will be the 2025 version of the Indiana Hoosiers. 

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