Mike Farrell Sports

College Football Recruiting, Opinion, and Analysis

Maintenance Report: Championship Week

Lead columnist Kyle Golik gives his diagnosis for issues facing Michigan, TCU, and USC as they head into Championship Weekend

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Championship Week is upon us for the 2022 season, with this weekend having major implications to make the College Football Playoff. 

With Ohio State and Alabama lurking in the wings at No. 5 and 6, the margin for error for some is razor thing and for others it is very massive. 

For No. 1 Georgia, to me they are 99.99999% in. The only way Georgia would drop from No. 1 to No. 5 would be if LSU routs Georgia in a game like Georgia did Oregon in Week 1. Even if LSU were to pull the major upset, I feel at worst Georgia would be No. 4. 

For Michigan, Southern Cal, and TCU their margin of errors are much smaller than Georgia’s. 

Michigan

ISSUE: Purdue’s Passing Game

DIAGNOSIS: Bend But Don’t Break

Purdue is a team that always has the proclivity of pulling the upset, with the most wins versus AP Top-2 teams since 1936 when unranked enhances that point. 

Unlike a season ago when Michigan took on an Iowa team that posed no offensive threat to the Wolverines, the Boilermakers arial attack positions them to be very upset minded. 

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Arguably one of the top transfers of the season came to Purdue via Iowa in wide receiver Charlie Jones, who is ranked in the Top 5 nationally in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. 

Quarterback Aidan O’Connell is a senior who is very experienced in big games, has a 2-1 record versus teams ranked in the top four. He also in the Music City Bowl last year won the duel with Hendon Hooker when he threw for 534 yards. However, he is playing with a heavy heart in the wake of the passing of his brother.

This season O’Connell is 2-0 against ranked opponents. 

The margin for Michigan is razor thin, they can ill afford to lose in any way to Purdue, the committee could not justify a redemption for the Wolverines if they lose to an unranked opponent.  

To me, even with one loss, Michigan’s margin of error is smaller than TCU’s.

The Wolverines have to either have their secondary will absolutely eliminate the Boilermakers playmakers on the edge or simply give up field goals instead of touchdowns because Purdue isn’t going to run the ball, it is going to be pass, pass, and more passing. 

TCU

ISSUE: Deuce Vaughn heating up

DIAGNOSIS: Make Will Howard Beat You

Deuce Vaughn was on fire in The Sunflower Showdown, as he gained 229 total yards and a touchdown in Kansas State’s 47-27 win over Kansas last week.

It was Vaughn’s seventh game of over 100 yards rushing for the season, and his third with 50 or more receiving yards. On the season, his 1,643 scrimmage yards and 10 total touchdowns make him the heart of the Wildcat offense.

Vaughn was a factor against TCU in their first matchup, with 121 total yards (83 rushing and 38 receiving) and a touchdown. However, he did miss sometime during that game with a potential leg injury that Kansas State took extra precaution on after an ankle injury against Iowa State earlier in the season. 

Vaughn is heating up at the right time and he will be the focal point of TCU’s defense. If the Horned Frogs can slow him down and put the onus on the shoulders of quarterback Will Howard, it exponentially increases their chances of victory. 

Howard has been incredible in relief of Adrian Martinez, garnering a QBR of 88.8 with 13 touchdown passes to just two interceptions. He has been extremely efficient but hasn’t been put into a position where he has had to pass it to win a big game. 

In the key stretches in the first TCU game, Howard went only 1 for 7 with an interception and no touchdowns to targets not named Deuce Vaughn. That’s not going to cut it in the Big XII title game.

In my mind, and I feel I am in the minority, as most have talked about TCU losing and they are out. To me, it is much more important to see how they lose. 

To me, and any coach would tell you, it is tough to beat the same team twice in a season. TCU has already defeated Kansas State, and you know that the rematch will more than likely be much closer than the first matchup.

If it is about a total body of work, TCU should in a loss 10 points or less drop no less than No. 4. You get to two possessions or more, things change and it’s hard to keep them in. 

Southern Cal

ISSUE: Defense Getting Gashed Up the Middle

DIAGNOSIS: Force Cameron Rising Beat You Outside the Numbers

Many Trojan fans may have thought they saw the best tight end in the nation last week in Michael Mayer and Notre Dame. 

In my estimation, they face the best tight end in the country this week and the Trojans got a healthy dose of Dalton Kincaid earlier this season. 

In their October 15 showdown at Rice-Eccles Stadium, Kincaid had 16 receptions for 234 yards and a touchdown. 

Somehow, Kincaid who was snubbed for the Mackey Award finalists (Brock Bowers – Georgia, Sam LaPorta – Iowa, Michael Mayer – Notre Dame were finalists) will look to show the nation Friday night the mistake of their omission. 

Southern Cal’s porous defense will also have to try to stop an Utah ground game that is No. 10 in the nation averaging 220.1 yards per game. 

A wildcard that I haven’t mentioned and usually he is the first one mentioned is quarterback Cameron Rising. Rising was integral in the second half comeback earlier against the Trojans having five total touchdowns in a 43-42 win. 

What helps the Trojans is Rising and Kincaid aren’t 100% and might be limited for Friday’s game. Look for both to give 100% of what they got in their tanks and what that translates to won’t be known until the game.

The margin for error for Southern Cal is razor thin like Michigan’s, the committee will not put a two loss Southern Cal over a one-loss Ohio State. 

The Trojans are in a win and they’re in situation, but slowing down a potent and balanced Utes offense is critical to clinch the Pac-12 Championship and reach the playoffs.

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