I love conference realignment talk. It makes for great fodder, riles up certain fan bases and sometimes strikes fear into the heart of others. But the latest FSU and Clemson talk to the Big 12 is absolute crap.
This isn’t the puff piece that FSU and Clemson fans want it to be but it should be a bit of a comfort. While those fan bases have high expectations and hopes of leaving the ACC and having the SEC and Big Ten want them, neither of those things are likely to happen anytime soon. But the Big 12? That’s just not going to happen — good or bad.
The SEC doesn’t want this duo. Not only do league members South Carolina and Florida want zero part of in-state SEC recruiting competition, the rest of the league doesn’t want expansion at all. Texas and Oklahoma were an exception made to bring in bigger dollars from future TV contracts and expand the geographical territory of the SEC for viewership and recruiting purposes. Clemson and FSU might make the league a bit more attractive for a future TV deal but they don’t add geographical eyeballs or recruiting territory. They aren’t redundant to South Carolina or Florida as both Clemson and FSU are on a much bigger upswing and have more momentum, but they aren’t needle movers either. And they would lead to more pieces of revenue sharing of the big pie for the others. The SEC would strike only if the Big Ten swooped in. It would be a move of aggression to keep the Big Ten out of the Southeast. And the Big Ten isn’t swooping.
Aside from lacking the AAU need for the Big Ten that seems vitally important, Clemson and Florida State have a few other things working against them in the eyes of the Big Ten. The Big Ten went after USC and UCLA as well as Oregon and Washington to improve their core as a league to improve future TV deal negotiations and add new TV markets. And yes, Clemson and FSU would bring value to the league in that respect. But, like the SEC, the rest of the Big Ten doesn’t want more teams in the conference until we get to the Super Two level and we aren’t there yet. And the Big Ten strategically has to be careful about how and when they strike into the Southeast. While targeting FSU and Clemson isn’t targeting the SEC directly it’s kinda close to home. The Big Ten can’t afford to have Greg Swankey and company feel threatened at this stage. While Big Ten fans may laugh at this, it’s true. Any move into the Southeast could be countered strongly with the SEC potentially thinking of moving north. If that happens, all hell breaks loose and a war begins. And a war with the SEC isn’t smart at this juncture. Are Clemson and FSU worth the risk? Maybe. But likely not. A full swoop including the Tigers and Seminoles as well as Miami and perhaps UNC would be the smart play but the Big Ten isn’t ready for another four or more teams.
Which leads us to the elephant in the room — tortious interference. All the speculation of conferences targeting another conference’s programs has legal ramifications. Does it happen? Of course. You think Texas and Oklahoma joined the SEC and USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington joined the Big Ten without some legal shenanigans? The Big 12 landed Colorado, Utah, etc without some secret conversations? It happens. But the ACC is in a legal wrangle with FSU and Clemson, and this is real stuff. Any interference could lead to massive lawsuits from the remaining ACC programs and it would get ugly. No one is going to step out of bounds here until most of that is settled.
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From the Clemson and FSU side of things, joining a Big 12 conference, where they are the only two national title winners, would do what for them? It would be a lateral move at best and as much as they hate the ACC, they’d be better off staying put. The Big 12 would welcome them with open arms and probably find private equity to sweeten the pot. But FSU and Clemson want out of the ACC to either join the SEC or Big Ten. And they’ll wait until that can happen.
The ACC will kick this legal battle down the road for as long as it can. They may have a rock solid GOR that can’t be touched or it would end up being a settlement but no matter what, it likely won’t be quick. Clemson and FSU are stuck for the time being and there’s nothing anyone can do about it. Rumors of the Big 12 helping to pay a buyout for both is ridiculous as they don’t have the money for such a thing without dipping into TV revenue and pissing off other teams in the conference.
I love realignment rumors. And we will continue to report and speculate on them because it’s fun. But we will also speak what we know. And right now, Clemson and FSU aren’t going to the Big 12 — and they don’t want to anyhow.
