By Jay Holahan
One of the toughest conferences to predict every year is the Big 12. There will always be a surprise team out of this conference that shocks the pundits, and makes the conference championship game, or in TCU’s case, from a couple of years ago, go to the national championship game.
1. Iowa State Cyclones (Season Prediction: 11-1, 8-1)
The common theme in the Big 12 is tons of offense and very little defense. Iowa State is returning four of its five offensive linemen this upcoming season. This should leave returning quarterback Rocco Becht with ample time to deliver strikes up and down the field, and returning running back Carson Hansen will look to improve his 53.7 rushing yards per game this upcoming season.
The Cyclones are not returning any starters at wide receiver, but you have to trust what the Cyclones are returning and that they’ll make a run. Looking at their schedule, Iowa State will open the year with a challenge against Kansas State. A game that could go down as the best during the opening week of the college football season. Opening with a win will be critical for the success of the Cyclones this year, because if they open with a win, the conference is tough in terms of the road environments Iowa State will play in. Still, they should scrape through with wins and build momentum leading to a showdown with Arizona State that, fortunately for the Cyclones, is in Ames, Iowa. Does this mean Iowa State wins the Big 12 if they meet for the title? Time will tell.
2. Arizona State Sun Devils (Season Prediction: 11-1, 8-1)
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Returning four of your five offensive linemen is a huge plus for the Sun Devils, but don’t make the mistake of thinking that losing Cam Skattebo isn’t going to be a hit. Sam Leavitt and his top receiver, Jordyn Tyson, should provide the majority of this offense on a game-to-game basis for the Arizona State offense. The defense returns nine starters from last season, and they posted the 21st-best rush defense last season, but against the pass is when the Sun Devils were at their worst, ranking 81st. Their schedule is tough, opening up against a Baylor team that will have a chip on their shoulder come the start of the year, and then to open up November against Iowa State in Ames is daunting, especially because Arizona State might come into this game undefeated. However, to end the season, it opens up well for the Sun Devils with home games against West Virginia and Arizona, then sandwiched between those two is Colorado on the road.
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3. Kansas State Wildcats (Season Prediction: 10-2, 7-2)
We are just 6 weeks away from Farm O’Geddon!
Avery Johnson vs Rocco Becht
pic.twitter.com/T8YICaHQpv— Nate Marchese (@CFFNate) July 12, 2025
Avery Johnson is entering his third year, and after a decent season last year, without DJ Giddens, more of the load will be placed on Johnson to carry the Wildcats’ offense. His leading target, wide receiver Jayce Brown, returns, which helps, but another leading target needs to cement itself into this offense. The schedule is tricky—out of the gate, playing Iowa State in Dublin, Ireland—the Wildcats face tough road games against Baylor, Kansas and Utah. The trickiest home game for K-State is against Texas Tech, so the schedule is manageable for the Wildcats to have a double-digit win year and at least two conference losses.
4. Texas Tech Red Raiders (Season Prediction: 10-2, 7-2)
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The backing of Texas Tech’s NIL fund makes the Red Raiders so intriguing for this season. However, in terms of what the product looks like on the field is unbalanced. Tech is a true Big 12 team heading into this season. They posted the fourth-best offense last year and the 121st-best defense. Ranking them higher than No. 4 is tricky because Kansas State and Iowa State feel like the more balanced teams. The Red Raiders will face Arizona State and Kansas State on the road in challenging games that will provide the two losses for Tech, and most likely keep them out of winning the Big 12. A 10-win season is very much in the balance because the rest of the schedule is light.
5. Baylor Bears (Season Prediction: 8-4, 7-2)
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Not sure why Baylor head coach Dave Aranda scheduled to play Auburn at home to open the year, and SMU on the road the following week. One loss would sting, but two would be a killer for the Bears. There are 14 returning starters on this Baylor team, eight on offense. An offense that ranked 20th in total offense will be on display once again. Like Iowa State, this is a typical Big 12 team. Defensively, they ranked 87th in total defense, and most likely won’t be a mark the Bears improve upon this season. With a possible 0-2 start, and the first win potentially against FCS Samford, the Bears will start their conference play against Arizona State. Finally, they catch a break for a few weeks, right? Kansas State travels to McLane Stadium in what could be a must-win for Baylor. A rivalry road game against TCU follows, and then from that point on, the Bears’ schedule lightens up. This will be one of Aranda’s most impressive coaching jobs if he can lead the Bears to a better record than what I predict after this season.
6. TCU Horned Frogs (Season Prediction: 7-5, 6-3)
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TCU has not played up to snuff since the memorable 2022 National Championship game run. Like Baylor, I don’t understand why TCU scheduled two Power Four programs to their out-of-conference schedule. TCU starts with North Carolina at home, then a cupcake against Abilene-Christian, and then the Iron-Skillet Battle returns in an in-state showdown against SMU. Unlike Baylor, TCU doesn’t have its eyes set on making a run to the CFP, but who knows? Anything can happen. Still, scheduling two tough battles could see TCU play itself into a 0-2 hole, similar to Baylor their first conference game against Arizona State, although the Frogs play on the road. A 1-3 start could be on the horizon. Following a “retooling” Colorado team, TCU plays Kansas State on the road; however, following that, the schedule lightens up, which may have TCU finishing with three losses in conference play.
7. Kansas Jayhawks (Season Prediction: 8-4, 6-3)
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Last year was a big letdown for Jayhawks fans. Many thought that Jalon Daniels would step into the starting role and Kansas would contend for the Big 12 title. As we know, the season did not unfold that way. Kansas finished 5-7 overall and 4-5 in the Big 12, for a 10th-place finish. Kansas’ roster returns only six starters, and the Jayhawks need to find chemistry early in the ‘25 campaign. Per the schedule, there is no reason why Kansas can’t open up 5-1 with Missouri being their lone loss as the Border War returns between Missouri and Kansas this year for the first time since 2011. After the first six games, things start to get dicey with Texas Tech and Kansas State being back-to-back tough games, and Iowa State on the road in the second-to-last game of the season. A fifth-place finish in the Big 12 will be a big turnaround after a tough ‘24 season.
8. BYU Cougars (Season Prediction: 8-4, 5-4)
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Without Jake Retzlaff, BYU will struggle. Head coach Kalani Sitake, who has made a solid career out of overachieving expectations, so why wouldn’t this year be any different? A four-loss conference year would be pretty damn good for a team without their best player last season, and returning now ten starters.
