The first AP College Football Poll was released on Aug. 11, which officially heralds the start of the 2025 college football season.
No more offseason speculation, no more trash-talk, no more hype and no more hot-seat rankings. It’s time for beer, brats and the boys as we watch what teams can take the leap from good to great or fall flat.
Some people question why bother releasing a preseason poll anyway if it doesn’t mean anything until at least week four? The long answer involves metrics, stats, scheduling, media bias/outlook, blah blah blah.
The short answer: we have to start somewhere so, here we are.
Rather than speculate, let’s dig in.
Overrated: Texas, Miami, South Carolina, Florida
Let’s start with Miami.
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Had Cam Ward and company found a way to beat Syracuse last season and make the College Football Playoff, I believe the future No. 1 NFL Draft pick would have made a decent run. However, even with the most talented quarterback in Corral Gables, Fla., since Vinny Testeverde, coach Mario Cristobal still fell short with a 10-3 record, and were left at home watching both the ACC Championship game and the CFP.
I understand those three losses were from a combined 11 points (seven to Georgia Tech, three to Syracuse and one to Iowa State), but the solution to recovering those 11 points was to replace a Heisman Trophy finalist in Ward with Georgia castoff Carson Beck. Nothing personal against the former Bulldog, but when your completion percentage goes from 72 percent (2023) to just 64 percent (2024) in your senior year, that’s not what you want.
Fair, he didn’t have Brock Bowers or Ladd McConkey to throw to in 2024, but there’s no Brock Bowers or Ladd McConkey on the 2025 Miami squad either. The Hurricanes return 55 percent of their production, but has potential to bite them when you consider the ACC average is 59 percent returning. I would take SMU or Georgia Tech over the ‘Canes this year.
Texas, Florida and South Carolina I have in the same boat. “Quarterback Keepers”—meaning they’ll hold relevance for now based on their quarterback play from a year ago. Texas we’ll get to in a second, so for now lets look at the Gators and Gamecocks.
No disrespect to LaNorris Sellers and Mike Shula (Sellers is QB4 on my Draft board), but the losses of Dowell Loggains (2024 OC) and Sellers’ favorite targets in Josh Simon and Rocket Sanders (and the loss of TJ Sanders on defense) to the 2024 draft will have growing pains that keep the Gamecocks out of the playoff. Sellers will keep them competitive, and I think Shane Beamer will get a signature win here or there, but 8-4 isn’t what you expect out of the No. 13 team in the country.
Same for Florida. All-American center Jake Slaughter returns, along with a defense that returns plenty of returning production, along with a Heisman hopeful QB in DJ Lagway, and a coach fighting for his job. All those ingredients make for an interesting team, but a fringe playoff team? Yes, Lagway looked awesome when he was forced into the full-time starting role, but before the Tennessee game, Florida looked awful. This is a make-or-break year for Billy Napier, and a top-15 ranking to start will add extra unnecessary pressure to this upcoming season.
Both Napier and Beamer better be praying that their QBs deliver on the preseason expectations. The one coach who doesn’t is Texas’ Steve Sarkisian.
After years of preparation and grooming, it’s time for the Arch Manning show in Austin, Texas. As someone who grew up watching his uncles Peyton and Eli tear up the NFL, I couldn’t be more excited to see a Manning on the field again.
But I wonder if that’s the main reason Texas came in at No. 1 this year. While playmakers like Anthony Hill Jr. or Ryan Wingo also return, the offensive line lost all four starters. As talented as Manning might be, if the offensive line takes a minute to solidify there is only so much a talented quarterback can do behind it (see 2020 Bo Nix). Having around 69 percent of your defensive production return is nice, but outside of Manning and Wingo, the biggest name on the offense is the coach, Sarkisian.
The Longhorn’s schedule is brutal. We’ll get an early look at just how deserving Arch and company are of No. 1 overall ranking when they kickoff in Columbus, Ohio against one of our first underrated teams.
Honorable Mentions: Alabama, Notre Dame, Oklahoma
Underrated: Ohio State, Penn State, Clemson, Illinois
I know what you’re thinking. How can the No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4-ranked teams be “underrated?”
Simple. All three would have made a better preseason No. 1.
Ohio State did lose RBs Quinshon Judkins and Treyveon Henderson, QB Will Howard and their OC Chip Kelly to the NFL. Jack Sawyer is also playing on Sundays now, and DC Jim Knowles left for our other underrated darling Penn State (more on that later).
Returning to the fold is future No. 1-overall pick WR Jeremiah Smith, as well as the talented Carnell Tate to give five-star QB Julian Sayin some weapons. The Buckeyes return some key pieces on the interior offensive line, which will be crucial for the success of their new quarterback. G Carson Hinzman and C Luke Montgomery are both experienced players who will be relied on for leadership and stability upfront.
Caleb Downs isn’t just a returning defensive player. He’s easily the best returning defensive player in 2025. Ryan Day also replaced both his coordinators with in-house veteran OC Brian Hartline, who has been Day’s right-hand man since day one, and former NFL DC Matt Patricia.
So yes, I would take the Buckeye’s skill players over Manning. Ohio State has yet to slow down ever since Urban Meyer took over in 2011 and there’s no reason to believe that’ll start fresh off winning the national title.
Penn State and Clemson have a better argument though, because while both return plenty of production like Ohio State, both return their NFL-ready starting QBs.
People probably watched Clemson get blown out of the water by Georgia in week one last year and tuned them out. What a shame, if that was you, because the Tigers put together a respectable 10-3 ACC Championship run and made the playoff, behind Cade Klubnik. Klubnik, who threw for more than 3,600 yards and 36 touchdowns to six turnovers, is back with third-year OC Garret Riley. Couple that QB production with 80 percent of your production returning, and Clemson could make a nasty run this year.
Penn State would get more benefit of the doubt from me becuase as much as I like Klubnik, I like the poise and arm strength of Drew Allar more. He doesn’t have as many passing TDs as Klubnik, but he is more accurate and has a better arm. In terms of physical size, Allar is more NFL ready. Speaking of the NFL, had he declared for the draft last year, many analysts had him at QB3 behind Ward and Shedeur Sanders. This year, many have him at QB1 ahead of Manning.
They have a veteran offensive line to protect Allar, and while the loss of TE Tyler Warren to the draft sucks, the reports out of fall camp for Penn State indicate that Luke Reynolds and Khalil Dinkins are more than poised to replace him. Overall, the Nittany Lions return 89 percent of last year’s playoff run production, and stealing away the Buckeyes’ DC (Knowles) to call defense is the cherry on top.
So, while No. 2 is respectable, this Penn State team could have easily been the first Nittany Lion squad to start the year No. 1 since 1997.
Then there’s Illinois.
You probably wouldn’t think of the Fighting Illini as a darkhorse for the playoff, but Brett Bielema has all the tools necessary to make an appearance. Luke Altmeyer wasn’t the flashiest QB in the country last year, but he took care of the ball and finished with a 61 percent completion rate, all while throwing for 22 touchdowns.
With 76 percent of the Illini’s starting talent returning, I am high on their chances to compete for a Big Ten title this year. Ohio State and USC could be the only two ranked teams they face all year, so if Bielema can navigate his squad to win what they’re supposed to they are in.
I realize that No. 12 is a playoff spot, my point is the proven commodity at QB, as well as a decent schedule, should have given the Illini more benefit of the doubt than some teams with unproven commodities at QB and harder schedules (like, say, Alabama).
Honorable Mentions: LSU, Arizona State, USC, Louisville
Others Receiving Notes
Speaking of “Quarterback Keepers” how many spots did Tennessee cost themselves by not paying up for Nico Iamaleava? Credit Josh Heupel for not caving in and telling his star player to kick rocks. That move saved college football from an all-out bidding war between schools and their own skill players on an apocalyptic scale.
Iamaleava was a fine QB, but he was maybe the third or fourth reason behind the Vols’ 2024 playoff run (behind RB Dylan Sampson and a monster of a defensive unit). Still, the young gunslinger was more than serviceable, and quarterbacks in the Heupel system get better with age (see year two for Hendon Hooker, Joe Milton and Drew Lock), so a year-three jump in production wasn’t out of the question.
But Iamaleava wound up leaving, as we all know. Had he stayed at Rocky Top you have to wonder if the voters would’ve preferred Iamaleava’s experience to Austin Simmons’ limited reps and maybe Tennessee and Ole Miss would swap QBs or at least the Vols would be a little higher than No. 24.
The Vols should be good this year, but that decision-albeit, the right one, might have ensured the Vols start and finish at No. 24 this season.
What do you think? Who should be in, who should be out?
