By Brett Daniels
The second edition of the College Football Playoff Rankings will be released tonight and after a wild weekend that featured several upsets, the order will certainly change. It will be interesting to see how the committee evaluates teams like Miami and Georgia after losses on Saturday. Are the Dawgs still in the Top 12 after their loss as a credit to their #1 ranked strength of schedule or are they on the outside looking in? How do they view Miami after finally losing a game after flirting with losses on two previous occasions? Is winning the ACC Championship the only avenue for any team in that conference to make the field? How are teams like Penn State, Texas, and Indiana who have zero ranked wins among them valued versus an Alabama team that has three?
Projected College Football Playoff Rankings
1. Oregon Ducks (10-0)
The Ducks had the week off and will travel to Madison to take on the Wisconsin Badgers on Saturday before finishing up the season against Washington at home. Neither of these teams should pose any sort of threat to Oregon and the Ducks should finish the season 12-0. Oregon will face either Ohio State or Indiana in the Big 10 Championship Game.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (8-1)
The Buckeyes will travel to take on Northwestern this weekend before a huge game at home against Indiana for what will likely determine one of the participants in the Big Ten Championship Game. Ohio State will close the season out with the traditional match-up against Michigan in the Horseshoe.
3. Texas Longhorns (8-1)
The Longhorns may be the team that is getting the most benefit of the doubt of any team in the Top 12. Texas doesn’t have a win over a ranked team and will finish the season only playing Georgia (loss) and Texas A&M who are currently in the top eight of the conference. If Texas stumbles again and loses to Arkansas on Saturday or against A&M the last weekend of the regular season, they may not make the playoffs after being in the Top five most of the season.
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4. Tennessee Volunteers (8-1)
The Vols have a huge game against Georgia in Athens this Saturday where a win would all but assure them of a spot in the SEC Championship Game and a Playoff berth. Tennessee has done it this year with a strong running game and defense and will look to get their passing attack on track against a leaky Georgia secondary.
5. Indiana Hoosiers (10-0)
Coach Curt Cignetti has the Hoosiers 10-0 for the first time in their history and will have an extra week to prepare for the showdown with Ohio State. A loss at the Shoe wouldn’t completely derail Indiana’s Playoff chances as they should beat a hapless Purdue team to end the season and finish no worse than 11-1. However, the Strength of Schedule argument will come into play as Indiana will face only one ranked team (Ohio State) the entire season and margin of defeat would matter.
6. Penn State Nittany Lions (8-1)
Penn State is in a similar situation to Indiana in that they will play only one ranked team (Ohio State) and lost to them at home. Games against Purdue, Minnesota, and Maryland to end the season won’t move the meter much on determining whether the Nittany Lions are a Playoff team or not.
7. BYU Cougars (9-0)
The Cougars continue to get disrespected when it comes to these rankings. They have two ranked wins over Kansas State and SMU and are undefeated in a Power 4 conference. The last real test for BYU is a game at Arizona State on 11/23 and then the Big 12 Championship Game.
8. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-1)
The Irish have been on a tear after their bye week, putting up 50 points in consecutive games and shutting down opposing team’s offenses. Notre Dame will host Virginia on Saturday before a neutral site game at Yankee Stadium against Army and the annual rivalry game against USC to finish the season. If they win out the Irish have a very good chance of hosting a playoff game.
9. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-2)
The Tide might have the most impressive win resume of any team in the rankings with wins against Georgia, LSU, and Missouri. The loss to Tennessee isn’t a big negative as the Vols are a top 5 team, although the Vandy loss looks worse. The Tide should make the playoff as long as they continue to win even without an appearance in the SEC Championship Game.
10. Miami Hurricanes (9-1)
With Miami’s loss at Georgia Tech on Saturday the ACC is looking more and more like a one-team league for the Playoff. As it stands now, Miami would play SMU for the ACC Championship where the winner makes the field, and the loser is out.
11. Ole Miss Rebels (7-2)
The Rebels took down Georgia convincingly on Saturday and appear to be hitting their stride at the right time. Ole Miss is likely too far back in the standings to make the SEC Championship Game, and will hope for a Tennessee win this Saturday to give Georgia their 3rd loss and eliminate the Bulldogs from contention.
12. Boise State Broncos (8-1)
The Broncos continue to lead for the Group of Five automatic bid. The biggest threat to them is if Army upsets Notre Dame in a few weeks and finishes undefeated on the season. The committee would have a hard time leaving the Black Knights out in that scenario.
First Four Out
1. Georgia Bulldogs (7-2)
The Dawgs have already faced more Top 25 teams away from home (4) than they have played home games (3). The offense has been dysfunctional, and the defense has been leaky over the last few weeks. A win against Tennessee on Saturday would put Georgia back in the field assuming they win out.
2. SMU Mustangs (8-1)
The Mustangs have Boston College, Virginia, and Cal standing between them and a spot in the ACC Championship Game where a win gets them the automatic spot in the Playoff.
3. Army Black Knights (9-0)
The Black Knights just continue to win and have set themselves up to get the 12th seed in the Playoff with an upset against Notre Dame in a couple of weeks. Army will also need to beat Navy in the annual game the last week of the season.
4. Texas A&M Aggies (7-2)
Texas A&M is tied for the lead in the SEC at 5-1 and will play non-conference New Mexico State on Saturday. The Aggies will need to beat Auburn and Texas to finish 10-2 and have a shot at a playoff berth. The loss against Notre Dame looks better with each win by the Irish.
Thoughts and Observations
- NIL and the Transfer Portal have created a level of parity that we have not seen in College Football. The top 10-15 teams are more closely matched than ever in terms of starting talent.
- Scheduling needs to be addressed and considered strongly in making selections for the Playoff field. Alabama at 7-2 has more top 25 wins (3) than the teams ranked 2-5 have combined. Georgia will finish the season facing three top 10 programs on the road and one top 25 at a neutral site. Penn State, Indiana, Boise State, and Miami will face one or zero ranked teams the entire season.
- Do away with the automatic bids and byes. The field is expected to expand to 16 teams after the current contract expires in 2025. The teams should be ranked and seeded 1-16 regardless of conference.
- The final field of 12 won’t be the most deserving teams. Teams that make and lose their conference championship game will be protected. Like March Madness an upset or two in the conference championships could alter the make up of the final field of 12.
- Conference Break Down: ACC-conference winner only, Big 12-conference winner only, Big 10-Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State, Indiana currently alive, the loser of the Ohio State/Indiana game will be left out. SEC-Texas, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Alabama, Ole Miss, Georgia, Missouri still alive. Missouri probably won’t make the field due to their weak schedule and no quality wins. Georgia/Tennessee is an elimination game for Georgia, Texas/Texas A&M is an elimination game for the Aggies. Ole Miss and Alabama look good to finish 10-2. The SEC should get 4 teams in and possibly 5 depending on how other conferences play out.
