by Kyle Golik
Entering last season, Southern California’s Lincoln Riley and Ohio State’s Ryan Day faced great expectations in following up successful 2022 campaigns. Riley had the reigning Heisman Trophy quarterback and Day’s Buckeyes gave eventual national champion Georgia all it could handle in their College Football Playoff semifinal matchup at the Peach Bowl.
As the 2023 season progressed, Southern California couldn’t overcome its defensive woes. Arguably the worst defense in Trojan history spoiled what was the second-highest scoring offense in the program’s history. For Ohio State, 2023 started as business as usual for Day, with the Buckeyes going 11-0 before their annual showdown against Michigan. However, Michigan’s efficient passing game, combined with its dominance on the ground and in the trenches, led to a 30-24 victory. For the first time since 1997, Michigan won its third straight against Ohio State, leaving Day reeling like no coach since John Cooper.
Both coaches entered the offseason determined to address the issues that plagued their 2023 seasons. Riley assembled one of the best defensive staffs in the nation, landing D’Anton Lynn, Doug Belk, Matt Entz, and Eric Henderson to orchestrate a defense that can complement the elite offenses typical of Riley’s teams. Meanwhile, Ohio State had one of the most impressive transfer portal hauls. The Buckeyes capitalized on Nick Saban’s retirement, landing three key Alabama players: safety Caleb Downs, center Seth McLaughlin, and quarterback Julian Sayin. Ohio State wasn’t done in the portal, also adding Kansas State quarterback Will Howard and former Ole Miss running back Quinshon Judkins.
With both programs making major changes to meet the high expectations of 2024, the question remains: Who faces the most pressure to perform?
The Case For Riley
As Riley’s disastrous 2023 season came to an end, he was like Dorothy in The Wizard of Oz realizing he wasn’t in the Big XII anymore. When Riley was at Oklahoma, Big XII defenses weren’t as stout as those he faced in the Pac-12 last season, and they certainly won’t be as difficult as what he will experience in the Big Ten this season. The days of outscoring the opposition and making a few key stops are over for Riley, and he knows it.
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Riley is well aware that $110 million head coaches aren’t paid to go 7-5 and visit the San Diego Zoo during bowl excursions. The staff Riley has assembled should quell any unrest around Troy because that was exactly what he needed to do after 2023’s monumental disaster.
While the coaches won’t play in the games, the scheme and coaching should result in at least a touchdown improvement—maybe even as much as 10 points per game fewer than the 34.4 points per game that last year’s defense surrendered. New defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn isn’t a stranger to major turnarounds, and if Lynn can orchestrate his second Los Angeles defensive turnaround that I suggested, the College Football Playoff isn’t out of the question.
The Case For Day
For the first two decades of the 2000s, Ohio State flipped the script from the disastrous John Cooper era. For the generation of Buckeyes who grew up during this period, there seemed to be three certainties in life: death, taxes, and beating “The Team Up North.” However, the 2020s have not seen an Ohio State win over Michigan, and this has fueled all the angst against Ryan Day.
Day has a 39-3 record against Big Ten teams, 38-0 against teams not from Ann Arbor. Day’s resume since replacing Urban Meyer is as complete as any coach’s in the nation, he is only missing a national championship. What doesn’t help is the current three-game losing streak to Michigan, the first such streak since the John Cooper era. What doesn’t help is Michigan is reigning national champions. What also doesn’t help is during the summer when both Meyer and Jim Tressel showed up for an Ohio State practice. Meyer added fuel to the fire by stating, “This is one of the most talented team rosters in the last decade, maybe ever.” As a result, the pressure in Columbus is at an all-time high.
Verdict: Day
Let me preface by saying that neither coach’s seat is exactly comfortable. With Southern California bringing in a completely new defensive staff, entering their first season in the Big Ten, and showing strides in defense during the Spring Game and in recruiting, I feel that all Riley needs to do is ensure improvement on defense. I understand that a $110 million coach should be contending for College Football Playoff berths, not just focusing on improvement.
Hear me out: if Riley has a typical Riley offense that scores 40 points a game, and it’s not out of the realm of possibility that better coaching, scheme, and discipline could lead to a 10-point-per-game improvement on defense. One thing many fail to mention is that the Pac-12 historically had a lot of great offenses and quarterbacks last season and the Trojans faced most of them: Shedeur Sanders (Colorado), Bo Nix (Oregon), Michael Penix Jr. (Washington), Noah Fifita (Arizona), with Cameron Rising (Utah) sidelined due to injury.
While Riley has the breathing room to perform, I feel Day has to beat Michigan or else. I don’t think Day will be fired after the 2024 season if Ohio State somehow loses to Michigan again, but his seat won’t be comfortable. If Riley’s breathing room is his staff getting in the talent to execute the defenses, I feel for Day, this is a new world of college football with the expanded College Football Playoff. Would Ohio State fans lose their minds if Day lost a fourth straight to “The Team Up North” but took home the national championship? I feel they would be like the spoiled kid who didn’t get sprinkles on their ice cream if that happened, and by that definition, that is why Day’s margin for error is zero and and why he really has to perform for that one week of the year at high noon in The Game.
