SEC Win Totals 2025: Forecasting a Wide-Open Championship Race

By Brett Daniels

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Circa Sports has released its Over/Under win totals for the 2025 college football season and according to their predictions, the SEC will be wide open once again with no clear-cut favorite to hoist the championship trophy in Atlanta. 

Defending champion Georgia, along with Alabama and Texas, are the top tier with over/under totals of 9.5, while the middle of the conference is tightly bunched with LSU, Ole Miss and Tennessee at 8.5, Auburn and Texas A&M at 8, and a trio of Florida, Missouri and South Carolina at 7.5. Oklahoma rounds out the middle tier at an over/under at 7. The bottom of the conference is expected to struggle with Arkansas and Vanderbilt at 5.5, Kentucky at 4.5, and Mississippi State at 3.5.

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Georgia Bulldogs (O/U: 9.5)

The Dawgs finished 10-2 against one of the hardest schedules in college football in 2024 with both losses occurring on the road to Alabama and Ole Miss. Both the Crimson Tide and Rebels will have to come to Athens this fall along with Texas to face a Georgia team that hasn’t lost a home game since 2019.

Projected wins (10): Marshall, Austin Peay, Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Florida, Mississippi State, Texas, Charlotte

Projected losses (2): Auburn, Georgia Tech

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Alabama Crimson Tide (O/U: 9.5)

Year one under Kalen DeBoer was a disappointment in the eyes of the Crimson Tide faithful, losing more than two games for the first time since 2010. The offense was dysfunctional at times and the defense was not up to Alabama standards. In 2025, the Tide will have one of the most experienced defenses in the conference and new OC Ryan Grubb should help the offense to be more efficient.

Projected wins (10): Florida State, ULM, Wisconsin, Vanderbilt, Missouri, Tennessee, LSU, Oklahoma, Eastern Illinois, Auburn

Projected losses (2): Georgia, South Carolina

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Texas Longhorns (O/U: 9.5)

Texas took the conference by storm last year amassing a 7-1 record and appearing in the SEC Championship game against Georgia. Quarterback Arch Manning will be leading the Longhorns in one of the more anticipated seasons for a quarterback in some time. The season opens with a bang against defending National Champion Ohio State in the Horseshoe in week one, however, after that there are only four games that should be competitive (at Florida, vs. Oklahoma, at Georgia, vs. Texas A&M). If the Longhorns can get by the Buckeyes to start the season, another 11-win campaign is very realistic, should Texas drop that game then 9-3 is also on the table.

Projected wins (10): San Jose State, UTEP, Sam Houston State, Florida, Oklahoma, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Texas A&M

Projected losses (2): Ohio State, Georgia

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LSU Tigers (O/U: 8.5)

The Tigers have one of the best—if not the best—quarterback in the conference returning in Garrett Nussmeier as well as exciting linebacker Harold Perkins on defense. The schedule doesn’t do LSU any favors with a difficult road opener against Clemson in the “other” Death Valley along with a visit from Florida in week three and a trip to Oxford to face Ole Miss in week five. The Tigers could play well and still start the season anywhere from 4-1 to 2-3. LSU will get both South Carolina and Texas A&M at home before difficult road games at Alabama and Oklahoma.

Projected wins (8): Louisiana Tech, Florida, Southeastern Louisiana, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Western Kentucky

Projected losses (4): Clemson, Ole Miss, Alabama, Oklahoma

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Ole Miss Rebels (O/U: 8.5)

Lane Kiffin went all in for 2024 and probably had a team that would have advanced in the College Football Playoff, the problem was three losses—one of which was to Kentucky at home in week three. The Rebels won’t be as potent this year but will still be a good team and one you don’t want to play on the road in Vaught-Hemmingway Stadium.

Projected wins (9): Georgia State, Kentucky, Arkansas, Tulane, LSU, Washington State, Oklahoma, Citadel, Mississippi State

Projected losses (3): Georgia, Florida, South Carolina

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Tennessee Volunteers (O/U: 8.5)

This number came out after Nico Iamaleava decided to head to the West Coast and UCLA. The Vols lost the SEC’s Offensive Player of the Year in running back Dylan Sampson and edge rusher James Pearce Jr. to the NFL Draft. Tennessee will have one of the better secondaries in the conference and a solid linebacking corps. This will give them an opportunity to win 8-9 games assuming the offense doesn’t sputter like it did last season. Quarterback Joey Aguilar arrives in Knoxville by way of UCLA from Appalachian State where he had a propensity to turn the football over on a regular basis. Never a good sign in an offense that likes to throw the ball all over the field.

Projected wins (9): Syracuse, ETSU, UAB, Mississippi State, Arkansas, Kentucky, Oklahoma, New Mexico State, Vanderbilt

Projected losses (3): Georgia, Alabama, Florida

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Auburn Tigers (O/U: 8)

Hugh Freeze is a desperate man and the “Auburn Illuminati” are notoriously impatient when it comes to turning the football program around. The Tigers should see competent quarterback play for the first time in many years with the addition of Jackson Arnold from Oklahoma. The former five-star recruit fits the Freeze offense and will have super sophomore Cam Coleman to throw to along with Georgia Tech-transfer Eric Singelton. The defense should be good enough to allow the offense to win games if they don’t turn it over like last season.

Projected wins (9): Baylor, Ball State, South Alabama, Georgia, Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Mercer

Projected losses (3): Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Alabama

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Texas A&M Aggies (O/U: 8)

Mike Elko did a fantastic job in year one as the Aggies head coach. Not many pundits gave them a chance to compete with the upper echelon of the conference, but they found themselves in the thick of the conference championship race with three weeks left in the season. The offense should be explosive with quarterback Marcel Reed and running backs Le’veon Moss and Rueben Owens returning. Texas A&M was active in the transfer portal on the defensive side of the ball and will look to replace DL Shemar Stewart and edge rusher Nic Scourton who were both selected in the NFL Draft. How the transfer class performs will determine if the Aggies are once again in the mix for the conference championship in November.

Projected wins (7): UTSA, Utah State, Auburn, Mississippi State, Arkansas, Missouri, Samford

Projected losses (5): Notre Dame, Florida, LSU, South Carolina, Texas

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Florida Gators (O/U: 7.5)

The Gators are the team that everyone will be talking about at the end of 2025. The schedule is still brutal, and the win total might not be impressive as a result, but the Gators are finally talented enough on both sides of the ball to compete with anyone on the schedule. If DJ Lagway can stay healthy the entire season, Florida has a chance to score a lot of points. The defense was young last season and lost a few pieces to transfer but will be good enough to keep the Gators in games late.

Projected wins (9): LIU, USF. Miami, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Florida State

Projected losses (3): LSU, Texas, Georgia

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Missouri Tigers (O/U: 7.5)

After the quietest 10-win season in the history of college football, Missouri will come back to earth this season. The schedule is soft in nonconference and the Tigers get to play three of the bottom-tier teams in the SEC, which should translate to seven wins. Losing wide receiver Luther Burden III and quarterback Brady Cook will diminish the offensive output and while Georgia transfer EDGE Damon Wilson will bolster the pass rush, the defense is an average unit.

Projected wins (7): Central Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, UMass, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Arkansas

Projected losses (5): South Carolina, Alabama, Auburn, Texas A&M, Oklahoma

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South Carolina Gamecocks (O/U: 7.5)

The Gamecocks are another team that everyone will be talking about at the end of the season. LaNorris Sellers is a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate, and the defense should be a strong point once again. The schedule sets up well for South Carolina with Oklahoma, Alabama and Clemson visiting Williams-Brice Stadium.

Projected wins (9): Viriginia Tech, SC State, Vanderbilt, Missouri, Kentucky, Alabama, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Costal Carolina

Projected losses (3): LSU, Oklahoma, Clemson

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Oklahoma Sooners (O/U: 7)

Oklahoma had a rude welcome to the SEC finishing 6-6 and looking completely outclassed in several games. It didn’t help matters that bitter rival Texas had the opposite experience—although the schedules might have had something to do with that. The defense was good and was the reason that the Sooners won six games. The offense was not good due to injury and inconsistency at the quarterback position. The offense should be better with the addition of Washington State transfer John Mateer and Cal running back Jadyn Ott.

Projected wins (7): Illinois State, Temple, Auburn, Kent State, South Carolina, Missouri, LSU

Projected losses (5): Michigan, Texas, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Alabama

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Arkansas Razorbacks (O/U: 5.5)

Sam Pittman survived the hot seat last year largely on the Razorbacks upset win over then-No. 4 Tennessee at home. The remainder of the season was an up and down affair culminating in a 6-6 record. Pittman will have to do better this year to avoid getting the axe after the season. Nonconference games at a talented Memphis squad from the AAC and a visit from national championship runner-up Notre Dame make that task even tougher. The Hogs will be lucky to reach bowl eligibility this season.

Projected wins (3): Alabama A&M, Arkansas State, Mississippi State

Projected losses (9): Ole Miss, at Memphis, Notre Dame, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Auburn, LSU, Texas, Missouri

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Vanderbilt Commodores (O/U: 5.5)

Vandy had a season that will live on forever in Commodore history. Seven wins, including an upset victory over then-No. 1 Alabama and a bowl victory over Georgia Tech, are to be celebrated in West End Nashville. Unfortunately, the Commodores won’t be sneaking up on anyone this year as the whole league knows how good quarterback Diego Pavia and company can be. Vanderbilt will need to pull an upset to achieve bowl eligibility for the second straight season.

Projected wins (5): Charleston Southern, Virginia Tech, Georgia State, Utah State, Kentucky

Projected losses (7): South Carolina, Alabama, LSU, Missouri, Texas, Auburn, Tennessee

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Kentucky Wildcats (O/U: 4.5)

The Cats are coming off one of the more disappointing seasons in recent memory. Transfer QB Brock Vandegriff didn’t pan out as expected and the NFL-quality players at every level on defense were either injured or didn’t play up to preseason expectations. Kentucky will find it difficult to go over the 4.5 win total in 2025 which may lead to head coach Mark Stoops landing on the hot seat.

Projected wins (3): Toledo, Eastern Michigan, Tennessee Tech

Projected losses (9): Ole Miss, South Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Tennessee, Auburn, Florida, Vanderbilt, Louisville

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Mississippi State Bulldogs (O/U: 3.5)

Mississippi State performed as expected last season in the first year of a coaching change. The Bulldogs were competitive in many games but couldn’t quite figure out how to win. Quarterback Blake Shapen returns from injury to lead the offense against a schedule that includes four of the 12 CFP participants. Finding more than two wins will be a challenge for head coach Jeff Lebby and staff.

Projected wins (2): Southern Miss, Alcorn State

Projected losses (10): Arizona State, Northern Illinois, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Florida, Texas, Arkansas, Georgia, Missouri, Ole Miss