On November 23rd, 2021, when Penn State was sitting at 7-4 on the year (before inevitably finishing 7-6,) Penn State signed their head football coach James Franklin to a new, 10-year contract extension. This contract is worth a guaranteed $70 million dollars, includes a life-insurance loan, annual retention bonuses, and has a value the goes up to $85 million dollars. If Franklin had signed this deal post 2019, I would say it was well deserved, coming off of an 11-2 year and a Cotton Bowl victory.
However, after going 4-5 in 2020 and 7-6 in 2021, while also going winless in their last ten games versus top-10 opponents, that contract seems out of line. It is clearly more suitedt someone capable of, more often than not, beating top teams.
Penn State's last three games in Michigan Stadium with fans….
2016: Loss, 49-10
2018: Loss, 42-7
2022: Loss, 41-17James Franklin: the most overpaid man in the world.
— Drew Pellman #FireHyde ? (@Drew_Pellman) October 15, 2022
2016 was special year for Penn State, despite losing to in-state rival Pittsburgh and being blown out by Michigan in the Big House 49-10. The Nittany Lions would go on to upset #2 Ohio State by forcing the Buckeyes into two huge special teams mistakes and win 24-21 en route to Indianapolis and a Big Ten title. 2016, however, is forever ago at this rate. In college football, we live in a “what have you done for me lately?” type of world. It begs the question, what exactly has James Franklin done for Penn State lately?
Since that 2016 year, he has seen Ohio State mop up the Big Ten. The Buckeyes won four consecutive titles; two under Urban Meyer and two with Ryan Day. He’s also seen Jim Harbaugh and Michigan, who just handled his team this past weekend, win a Big Ten title after a 17 year drought and seems to be a threat to do it again in 2022.
Franklin is in his 9th year with the Nittany Lions and his records against the three best teams in the B1G East in recent years are:
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- 1-7 vs. Ohio State
- 3-6 vs. Michigan (with 3 losses by 20+ points)
- 3-5 vs. Michigan State
Seems worth every penny of that contract right? Especially that $72 million dollar buyout.
Another notable stat for Franklin after the blowout loss to Michigan is he is now 3-6 coming off a bye week at Penn State, with his team allowing 350 yards rushing the last two years coming off the bye week. That’s especially concerning considering his team came into last Saturday with a supposed top 5 rush defense in the nation.
Obviously, Penn State could be in a worse situation coach wise, but it’s clear James Franklin isn’t living up to the dollar amount attached to him. With a potential future star QB in Drew Allar on the bench for a ridiculously inconsistent veteran QB in Sean Clifford, the rest of the 2022 campaign could had a rough ending.
Penn State has Minnesota this weekend in their annual Whiteout game (which can prove to be hit or miss as an advantage for the Nittany Lions). The Golden Gophers started hot and have flamed out the last two games. But after that, they get Ohio State at home, which could be another ugly affair for Franklin if he doesn’t have his team prepared. The following four games, at Indiana, Maryland, at Rutgers, and Michigan State, are all very winnable. So there is still hope to salvage the season somewhat.
But with a fanbase expecting to compete more for Big Ten titles and beyond, can Franklin really expect to skate by rarely beating Ohio State, Michigan, and never making Indianapolis again or even making one playoff? The answer is no. At some point, the fans will start a riot if more isn’t achieved soon. Look at Wisconsin firing Paul Chryst. He was a guy who has the most B1G West titles of any coach and made more appearances in Indy than any coach in the Big Ten currently had and they let him go without hesitation following a rough start to 2022.
It’s my belief that this trend for Franklin of losing to top teams and not winning the hardware will only buy him a 2-3 more years in Happy Valley before they cut the cord and move on. That could be expedited if he continues to lose like he did Saturday in Ann Arbor. It will be very interesting to see how he finishes out this 2022 season and those results will either extend his life at Penn State or shorten it significantly.
Going “1-0” every week only gets you so far, especially when you fail to go 1-0 that week in blowout fashion. If that trend continues, Franklin will find a seat next to Scott Frost and Paul Chryst before you know it.
