With all the rumors circulating of the Pac-12’s demise, FSU and Clemson looking to get out of the ACC, and the Big 12 aggressively expanding, college football is in a crazy place. Many fans have yet to have their worries of super conferences forming subside and for good reason. Teams moving means loss of historical rivalries, harder schedules for many teams, and some teams finding themselves on the outside looking in. With all the insanity happening, let’s look at the teams in Power 5 conferences that have the most to lose from realignment.
Pac-12: Oregon State and Washington State
Starting with the center of all the realignment talk we have Oregon State and Washington State as the big losers of the Pac-12. Realignment has been a tremendous worry for fans of the schools and with good reason. Both these schools just don’t have the storied history, strong recent success, or big market like the rest of the current Pac-12 schools do and chances are when everything is said and done they’ll be on the outside looking in of the Power Conferences. Every other college has something going for it: the corner schools have the market and natural fit with the Big 12 and Washington, Oregon, and the California schools are all AAU members which the Big 10 covets (with recent and past success to boot). Neither the Beavers nor the Cougars have a strong argument to be added to any of the 3 conferences that appear to be expanding. Even Boise State has an argument over these two to be added during expansions.
The saving grace here? Both schools have an R1 designation for research and could make an argument with the Big 10 they keep the academic standard they’re looking for. Realistically? Neither school is a member of the AAU and the lack of anything to note in football, basketball, or market share means they’ll probably find themselves members of the MWC when the dust settles. If they end up dropping down to G5 expect a rough couple of years as budgets are slashed, some staff is let go, and facilities likely have any upgrades delayed.
ACC: The Triangle Schools (Duke, UNC, NC State)
Let me preface this by noting all of these schools will end up being better off in terms of market and brand awareness. None of them will have any issues getting into the SEC or Big 10 if either conference chooses to expand.
But that’s the problem. They’re all going to make it into one of them, splitting up the Triangle between the two conferences. It’s hard to say who ends up where, but if I had to guess we’ll see either Duke or UNC enter the Big 10 while the other of the pair and NC State find themselves in the SEC.
If this happens, we’ll really start to see how realignment will ruin rivalries. With super conferences, we’ll likely see less out-of-conference play between Power Conference teams. Scheduling for many schools is booked out to ten years and if anything they’ll have to drop games for more conference matchups. One of these schools is going to get left out which seems ridiculous considering all three campuses are minutes away from each other and have a strong history that goes far past football games.
More Sports News
They very well could end up together and UNC likely has some bargaining power to demand all three schools join the same conference if the Big 10 or SEC reaches out to them. For now, it’s hard to see a situation where that pans out and 3 historic programs may find themselves without their biggest games on the schedule.
Big 12: Kansas and Iowa State
Both these programs have been historically bad. Like, really bad. The nice thing in recent years for both of them is they finally had (Iowa State) or have (Kansas) momentum building. Matt Campbell seemed to have something going there for a while with 2017 to 2021 being some of the best football the Cyclones have seen in a while. No reason to count them out after one down year either; they could always bounce back in 2023 and return to the standard Campbell seemed to have set. Kansas has had years of misery to the point that a 6-7 finish in 2023 has plenty of people excited for what’s to come. Both programs seem to be on the upswing after years of misery.
Realignment could ruin any momentum both programs have. The Big 12 is aggressively expanding and looking for quality programs to replace Texas and Oklahoma. Adding UCF and BYU already gives both schools two more tough opponents to get through and while I’m not a huge fan of Scott Satterfield, Cincinnati has seen lots of historic success. If the rumors are true and Utah, Arizona, and Arizona State all are set to join the Big 12 where are Iowa State and Kansas going to find conference wins consistently? All of those schools have shown much stronger commitment to sports from their administrators and have a wider and more committed alumni base to work with.
You never know how things will pan out but it’ll be harder to consistently win as a historically worse team with so many powerhouses joining the conference. The path to the expanded college playoff will still be heavily influenced by conference wins given how many are on the schedule and as better and better programs join the chances of sustained success for Kansas and Iowa State get lower and lower.
SEC: Ole Miss and Mississippi State
Akin to the woes of Iowa State and Kansas, both these schools are going to find it harder and harder to compete in an expanded SEC. Is there anyone who thinks Texas and Oklahoma aren’t immediate upgrades over both these programs? Neither of the Mississippi schools has historically been that bad and have found success consistently going 6-6 or 7-5. If the rumored top targets for the conference are true it’ll be much harder to have bowl eligibility as your floor in the SEC. If Clemson or FSU are added you’re looking at two more juggernauts that can easily strip another win from your schedule. Even if you manage to set 6-6 as your floor the likelihood of having those one-off seasons with double-digit wins gets lower and lower as more strong opponents get added to the conference.
If anything, I think both these schools would want a super conference to happen just so there’s a large number of programs on their level. Both programs are used to the play of the SEC; adding a bunch of teams from the ACC and WVU would help even out the odds that they can stay consistent bowl contenders. I don’t see the SEC going after any school that isn’t currently a good football program so I’m not sure this comes to fruition and Ole Miss and Mississippi State will both see their consistent bowl seasons turn into constantly being on the cusp.
Big 10: Penn State and Wisconsin
These programs probably seem like strange picks but you have to consider the Big 10 is in no trouble whatsoever and even the bottom-feeders of the league are secure for years to come. The dynamics of the conference have been pretty well set since the start of the CFP era and these teams have both seen consistent success. With the recent turnover at Wisconsin, it’s easy to forget how good they’ve been and how many division titles they have in the last ten years. Penn State unfortunately has been stuck in the same division as Ohio State and Michigan but no one can argue with the success of James Franklin. To me, it’s just a matter of time before one of these programs breaks through and wins the conference en route to a top 4 finish in the country. Even with the past two years, Michigan is certainly a beatable team and I don’t think Ohio State has been as unbeatable in the CFB era as the narrative would suggest.
If it weren’t for the CFP expansion I think both of these programs would be absolutely screwed. I don’t think the only requirement for Big 10 expansion is current success in sports but most of their top targets are doing well- Washington and Oregon are both historically great programs that also have played well in recent years. There have been rumors of FSU and Clemson being targeted by the Big 10 as well, both of which would immediately be on the same level as or better than PSU and Wisconsin. If any of these teams make it through I think it all but kills any possibility of either program having a Cinderella run as there are just going to be too many tough games on the schedule.
Even with the expanded CFP, they’re likely going to find themselves with a couple more seasons than expected without a playoff berth. Between USC, UCLA, Oregon, Washington, Ohio State, Michigan, Iowa, and the other team being discussed here how do PSU and Wisconsin manage to consistently get 10 wins year in and year out? Even if they pull together 8 win seasons is that enough to be a top 12 team? The Big 10 is just going to have way too many good teams and eventually scheduling will catch up with them. Every school drops games they should win and it’ll have a nastier effect on both PSU and Wisconsin in an expanded Big 10.
