One of the more intriguing hot spots in the country entering the 2023 season in college football involves all four programs in the state of North Carolina.
Let’s examine each and try to analyze three key issues with each.
Wake Forest
Question 1: What is Wake Forest going to look like at quarterback after the transfer of Sam Hartman?
Arguably the biggest loss to the transfer portal was the Demon Deacons losing Sam Hartman. Hartman departs from Wake Forest after rewriting their record book at every major passing statistical category.
Hartman was often overshadowed in the ACC by other quarterbacks, such as Kenny Pickett, Drake Maye, Jordan Travis, Trevor Lawrence, Brennan Armstrong, and DJ Uiagalelei, who snatched more of the headlines. As Hartman looks to enhance his profile at Notre Dame, the question is how well sophomore Mitch Griffis will replace Hartman?
In the small sample size, Griffis has played, against VMI, completing 21 of 29 passes for 288 yards and three touchdowns.
Dave Clawson’s unique RPO that utilizes an elongated mesh point wrinkle that has aided quarterback development and rewritten over 300 school offensive records during Clawson’s time will help curve the Griffis’ development.
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Question 2: What do the options look like in the ground game?
No one will mistake the Demon Deacons’ aerial attack that will aid Griffis with junior wide receivers Jahmal Banks, Taylor Morin, and Donovan Greene who combined for 24 receiving touchdowns last season.
What hurt the Demon Deacons was a ground game that finished 93rd in the nation at 131.1 yards per game. In five defeats, the rushing attack was largely ineffective, averaging 2.7 yards per carry. If you take away the 170 yards on 41 carries against North Carolina, that number plummets to just above two yards per carry.
The Demon Deacons return leading rusher junior Justice Ellison, who averaged over four yards per carry, and former Top 100 running back sophomore Will Towns, who saw limited action in 2022 will be expected to improve the ground game.
Question 3: Can the Demon Deacons improve their pass defense?
The biggest culprit for the Demon Deacons 115th-rated pass defense a season ago was health.
Clawson recognized following a Gasparilla Bowl win versus Missouri, “We weren’t healthy back there the majority of the year. Caelen (Carson) missed eight games. Then losing Coby Davis after Vanderbilt was a crushing blow. Coby was really playing well and gave us so much flexibility. We had to move Isaiah Wingfield out more at corner. It just seems the one position you can’t afford to get hurt at is the one you get banged up at. When we lost Coby and Caelen, we really lost our two best cover guys, so it was challenging. But again, our guys played hard.”
The experience gained was painful in 2022, but 2023 sees Caelen Carson returning for a full season and DaShawn Jones with another year of experience. This unit should be improved, the question will be with the Demon Deacons having to face quarterbacks like Jordan Travis, Drake Maye, and a return of Sam Hartman in South Bend will make things interesting for this secondary unit.
Duke
Question 1: How do you replace Shaka Heyward at linebacker?
Heyward chose to forego his super senior season in Durham to go pursue his NFL dreams. Duke is losing a team captain and a linebacker in Heyward who was the 13th leading tackler in Duke’s history.
Stepping up on the inside to replace Heyward is former Top 100 linebacker Tre Freeman. Freeman saw limited action in 2022, but in the Military Bowl against UCF, made a signature play by sacking quarterback John Rhys Plumlee for a seven-yard loss on a key third down.
Freeman finished the game with five tackles, three solo, sack, and a tackle for loss. The only question is if he can sustain that level for a full season.
Question 2: What is the key for Duke repeating their success with the ground game from last season?
One of the main reasons Duke surprised the nation in winning nine games a season ago was dominant offensive line play that engineered the fewest tackles for loss in the ACC and only allowed 17 sacks on the season. Losing tackle Andre Harris Jr. will sting, but the Blue Devils return four veterans to the group, none more important than tackle Graham Barton.
Barton was the only tackle in the Power 5 to be graded 85 or higher in both pass and run blocking by PFF and had the most big-time blocks recorded by PFF College at 17. Another strong offensive line will go a long way to helping the Blue Devils repeat their success from 2022.
Question 3: Can Elko engineer another nine-win season?
Mike Elko is going to have to rely heavily on the talent he has in the trenches, especially on the defensive side of the ball. That unit is led by defensive tackle Dewayne Carter. Carter had eight sacks and was second in the Power 5 with quarterback rushes with 52.
The Duke rushing attack looks poised to build on a ground game that averaged 184.2 yards per game, and with an efficient passing game led by junior Riley Leonard, it should have a repeat Top 40 team in total offense.
What hurts Duke’s chances is the schedule isn’t as kind to Duke as it was a season ago.
2023 Duke opens against Clemson, hosts Notre Dame, and travels to Florida State and North Carolina. The margin for error to win nine games again is razor-thin, but back-to-back bowl berths is definitely a possibility.
North Carolina State
Question 1: How do you refresh Brennan Armstrong?
What separated NC State from going from an ACC middle power to a upper-echelon team in the ACC was the play at quarterback. When the Wolfpack counted on Devin Leary to take the next step, he didn’t perform well against Clemson or Florida State. Then unfortunate season-ending pectoral injury closed the book on Leary’s time with the Wolfpack.
Entering the fray to replace the now-Kentucky signal-caller is former Virginia quarterback Brennan Armstrong.
Most prognosticators thought Armstrong teaming with former Clemson offensive coordinator Tony Elliott would be a huge boon considering the success Elliott had at Clemson and Armstrong, who, in the 2021 season, averaged over 400 yards a game in total offense.
However, the returns in one season with Elliott were disastrous in Charlottesville, and Armstrong is seeking redemption.
Remember, Leary broke Philip Rivers’ record for single-season touchdown passes back in 2021. Brennan Armstrong’s 2021 was as good as nearly anyone in the country statistically. If head coach Dave Doeren, new offensive coordinator Robert Anae (Armstrong’s coordinator at Virginia that season), and staff can relight the fire under him, it could be a special season.
Question 2: How early will we see Javonte Vereen?
One of the prized offensive recruits NC State saw in its Class of 2023 was four-star Top 20 tight end Javonte Vereen commit to NC State.
Vereen is seen by many in the same mold physically as former NC State wide receiver Devin Carter. Scouts have assessed Vereen with a large catch radius, who will win more than his fair share of contested situations with excellent high-pointing ability, timing, and dexterity.
Vereen will be mentored by sixth-year tight end Trent Pennix who missed significant time last season after fracturing his left scapula. While Pennix did return to action against Virginia Tech, he wasn’t able to go full speed.
I expect Vereen’s talent to push his way into the lineup. It will be key for him to get acclimated with the offense this spring and develop chemistry with Armstrong.
Question 3: Who replaces Drake Thomas and Isaiah Moore at linebacker?
Doeren’s defense got a gift prior to the Duke’s Mayo Bowl when linebacker Payton Wilson announced he would return for a fifth season.
The former five-star, rated as the No. 4 outside linebacker and had offers from every major team in the country coming out of high school, has had a career riddled with injuries. In 2023, he finally has a chance to fully live up to the hype.
In Doeren’s unique 3-3-5 stack, the linebackers’ ability to make plays is key, and losing Isaiah Moore and Drake Thomas to the NFL Draft will hurt. Replacing them is looking like upperclassmen Devon Betty and Jaylon Scott.
Some names to watch are a pair of redshirt freshmen who will see time this season in Daejuan Thompson and Torren Wright.
North Carolina
Question 1: Can Drake Maye avoid the sophomore slump?
No quarterback broke into the national picture like Drake Maye did as a freshman a season ago. The Tar Heels’ signal caller finished in the Top 10 nationally in yards (fourth with 4,321), passing touchdowns (fifth with 38), and QBR (10th at 82.4).
Most prognosticators have Maye as the biggest threat to dethrone Southern California’s Caleb Williams as the nation’s top quarterback and win the Heisman Trophy in 2023. Maye looks like he will be a future No. 1 NFL Draft choice and has all the intangibles to be a franchise quarterback in the NFL.
Maye possesses a strong, downfield arm that has great velocity on delivery, with accuracy throwing to all three levels of the field. He also has great feel for the position with a great ability to throw early with excellent anticipation and a professional-level ability to throw wide receivers open.
For North Carolina, it is a race to find the pieces to complement Maye to keep him in the national awards race and potentially make the College Football Playoff.
Question 2: Did North Carolina do enough to improve the defense?
By no means did the North Carolina defense improve itself to the point where they would be at a level like Alabama or Georgia, but in my mind, the Tar Heels made key improvements last season and in the offseason to be better. During the 2022 season, they finished as bad as you can be on defense, ranking 116th in Total Defense and 102nd in Scoring Defense.
North Carolina went to the transfer portal and will lean on veteran imports at linebacker Amari Gainer from Florida State, safety Derrik Allen from Georgia Tech, and cornerback Armani Chatman from Virginia Tech.
Gainer left Florida State as their leading active tackler at 210 total tackles. Allen, at safety for Georgia Tech, racked up 46 tackles, two pass breakups, and one interception. While at Virginia Tech, Chatman appeared in 49 games and started 25 games, accruing 89 tackles, 20 pass breakups, and two interceptions.
North Carolina recruited well in the Class of 2023, closing in on a pair of four-star EDGE rushers in Jaybron Harvey, from Durham, NC, Tyler Thompson, from Cary, NC, and a 6’5” 310 pound four-star interior defensive lineman Joel Starlings from Richmond, VA who all may see action in rotation with a veteran defensive line.
Question 3: Can the Tar Heels return to the ACC Championship Game?
The schedule makers did North Carolina a giant favor as the Tar Heels don’t have to deal with Notre Dame in their ACC rotation of games and Florida State. North Carolina has only two road games in their first 10, traveling to Pitt and Georgia Tech. These are both more than manageable matchups.
However, they finish the season with two games on the road at Clemson and NC State. If the Tar Heels take care of business, they have an offense that will threaten to score 40 points per game this season, without a doubt. The question is how much the defense will be improved.
They don’t need to be at an Alabama, Clemson, or Georgia level on defense. Even a league-average defense will get the Tar Heels to 10 or 11 wins in the regular season and a return to play for an ACC Championship.
What will determine a potential College Football Playoff berth is what the Tar Heels do against a deceptively good South Carolina team that beat Tennessee and Clemson to end their season a year ago.
