The Lessons of Lincoln Riley

When Southern Cal was able to lure Lincoln Riley away from Oklahoma, the excitement around the program hit a fever pitch.

After what many will consider a successful opening season for Southern Cal, reaching the Pac-12 Championship Game, a New Year’s Six Bowl, and producing a Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback, the season also had its setbacks.

The Trojans lost running back Travis Dye to a serious knee injury against Colorado, and Austin Jones simply wasn’t able to rekindle a ground game. USC was averaging over 180 yards a game heading into the season’s most consequential matchup against Utah in the Pac-12 Championship Game. In that contest, the Trojans mustered a measly 56 yards rushing. 

The other aspect that drew the ire of Trojan fans was the same Achilles heel that plagued Riley at Oklahoma. Poor defense.

Despite those results, there is still a contingent of the Southern Cal fanbase that believes that Riley's offense-first style can overcome those deficiencies and lead the program to its 12^th national title.

There is a segment of that fanbase that feels that unless Riley addresses those deficiencies, the visions of national championships and a dynasty are simply a vision of grandeur.

Those deficiencies were the basis of my article, where I included Riley in coaches who aren’t as good as their record indicates.

I will revisit some of those points here again, but the game’s modern-day “Quarterback Whisperer” has lessons to learn to realize the true potential of Southern Cal. 

Better Scheduling 

The move to the Big Ten cannot come soon enough for Riley’s Trojans.

Last season, Riley’s Trojans faced six opponents that finished 90th or worse in scoring defense, with five being 100th or worse. (Rice, Stanford, Arizona State, Arizona, Colorado, and UCLA.)

I mentioned in my earlier article about Riley that his teams have faced 31 opponents who have finished 80^th or worse in scoring defense, including 19 who were ranked 100 or worse. I strongly feel the lack of a competitive defense is also on display, with Riley’s teams scoring nearly 14 points per game fewer against Top 30 scoring defenses.

The Big Ten will offer Riley’s Trojans tougher competition that will season them for when the competition and stakes are much higher.

I feel that the collapse against Georgia in the Rose Bowl and being dominated by Alabama and LSU is the result of Riley’s teams not regularly playing tough competition.

The Big Ten slate will contain Oregon and Washington, and a rotation of Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State. 

Don’t count out outliers such as Illinois, Michigan State, and Nebraska that have proven to produce tough defenses from time to time.

Parlay ‘The Portal King’ Crown For Defensive Talent

When Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin abdicated his “Portal King” crown to Riley, most of it was due to the impact offensive players - quarterback Caleb Williams (Oklahoma), running back Travis Dye (Oregon), wide receiver Jordan Addison (Pitt) to Southern Cal.

One of the deficiencies Riley noticed was the physicality on the defensive line going into this season, especially with the departure of defensive end Tuli Tuipulotu, who was the Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year with 13.5 sacks.

The average weight of Southern Cal’s last season was 280 pounds amongst the starters, with only three defensive linemen on the roster over 290 pounds.

This season with transfer portal imports such as Anthony Lucas (Texas A&M - 295 lbs.), Bear Alexander (Georgia - 305 lbs.), and Kyon Barrs (Arizona - 295 lbs.), the line is much more physically imposing in Alex Grinch's 3-3-5 stack defense.

While Riley was at Oklahoma, he did the same thing on the defensive line, his first defensive line unit averaged 270 pounds. By his final season, the average weight was around 280 pounds.

One of the things you notice with the elite defensive lines in the nation, like Georgia, is that the line pushes 300 pounds, with EDGE rushers nearing 270 pounds.

Get Aggressive For Elite Defensive Talent

The laurels Riley receives as the “Quarterback Whisperer” are earned. When you attract talent either via recruiting or transfer portal like Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Spencer Rattler, Caleb Williams, and Malachi Nelson, those are warranted.

One of the main criticisms of Riley is his poor defensive efforts at critical times that doom his teams.

You can trace these deficiencies back to recruiting. When leveraging the 247 Sports Class Calculator, when you look at commitments from defensive players during Riley’s time at Oklahoma and Southern California, his teams earned an average Class Score of 179.14.

When you compare it to the four programs that have made multiple College Football Playoff National Championship Games and their Class Scores during the same period (2018 to 2023), you begin to see the disparity:

• Alabama - 253.4
• Georgia - 243.37
• Ohio State - 213.53
• Clemson - 208.94

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While it can be argued that Class Score recruiting calculations aren’t an exact science or representation, when you couple this metric with talent exported to the NFL, you see there is a major hole in Riley’s game.

During Riley’s time coaching Oklahoma and Southern California, he has sent a total of 13 defensive players drafted with only one first round draft pick - linebacker Kenneth Murray (2020 - Los Angeles Chargers) during his time. When you look at the same period (2018-2023 NFL Draft), Alabama, Georgia, Clemson, and Ohio State each have produced at least five defensive first-round NFL Draft Picks, with Georgia leading the way with 10.

Looking at Southern California’s current class, as of this writing, the Class Score sits at 151.80. The highlights in this current cycle are Kameryn Fountain, a Top 10 EDGE rusher from Booker T. Washington High School in Atlanta, Georgia, and Top 10 cornerback Marcelles Williams from St. John Bosco in Bellflower, CA.

As of this writing, there are not any more high-profile defensive players that are predicted to go to Southern California, and if this trend continues, the reliance on the transfer portal will be even higher for Riley to make up the difference between Southern Cal and the programs which have so far defined the College Football Playoff era.

For future Trojan defenses, the size of Big Ten offensive linemen might warrant a change from a 3-3-5 stack defense to potentially using a fourth down lineman or adjusting to a similar defense Jim Knowles runs at Ohio State in a 4-2-5 alignment. 

The key is landing those elite EDGE rushers and having large interior defensive linemen in the middle to occupy space and clog holes. Riley and Grinch seem to be focused on this in the present, but this will become even more pressing in Big Ten play.

The Gap In the Running Game

Offensively it is hard to argue against the offensive results Riley’s teams have produced. Riley’s offenses averaged 43.2 points per game during his time as a head coach, so it is hard to nitpick at an amazing strength.

What may be hurting Riley is a lack of emphasis on the running game. In his first three seasons as a head coach, Riley’s running games averaged over 230 rushing yards per game.

In Riley’s last three seasons, that number has dipped to 179.6 yards per game, nearly a 50-yard difference. 

A couple of key noticeable differences when you closely examine the Riley running game.

First, Riley’s teams between 2018-2022 averaged 25.84 rushing attempts for non-quarterbacks, and quarterbacks average nearly ten rushing attempts per game. A quarterback in Riley’s offense has finished in the Top 3 in his team rushing lead each year since 2018, highlighted by back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons from Kyler Murray and Jalen Hurts, with Hurts leading Oklahoma in rushing in 2019.

This gives a sense to elite running backs that a Lincoln Riley offense is not an ideal solution for them.

Riley has gotten Top 10 running backs commitments in recruiting (not transfer portal) before in T.J. Pledger (2018 No. 6), Rhamondre Stevenson (2019 No. 1), Gavin Sawchuk (2022 No. 7), and as well as notably Jovantae Barnes (2022 No. 16).

The latter commits (Sawchuk and Barnes) cannot blame Riley since he wasn’t in Oklahoma for much, if any, of their development. Stevenson has made a name for himself with the New England Patriots.

The big question is what Riley will do with four-star Quinten Joyner, who was rated the No. 4 running back in the Class of 2023. Joyner is presently listed third in Southern Cal’s depth chart behind upperclassmen Austin Jones, and South Carolina transfer MarShawn Lloyd.

One of the popular clichés analysts use about running backs is they need the reps to get into the groove. Riley must find the proper balance between his elite quarterbacks, wide receivers, and ground game.

One of the things Urban Meyer brought up being interviewed on The Herd with Colin Cowherd was something that he fell victim to while at Florida. He was compelled by the amazing perimeter athletes that he needed to get them the ball, and it changed the identity of his team.

Watching Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State, and Clemson for the better part of the last decade, they were proficient in both their aerial attacks and ground game. When elite running backs look for their preferred destinations, Riley’s teams sometimes land the elite backs but more often miss out on these kids. 

Getting the running backs more involved in this explosive offensive will only make the Trojans more formidable.

Conclusion

When I see Lincoln Riley listed in Top 5 coaches lists, it is a bit of a head-scratcher.