By Mike Huesmann
We are starting to get to that time of year when odds and likelihoods on players and teams start coming out. In this article I’ll look at odds for each conference and a dark horse I think could have a shot to win each one. I will list every team’s odds and what place they’re tentatively projected to finish in. Those odds have to be considered in conjunction with the selection, if two teams have a relatively equal chance to win the conference, the team with the longer odds gets the nod here as the perceived windfall is greater. To be considered a dark horse a team must not be among the top three favorites to win their respective conference. Teams not eligible will also be mentioned.
AAC
Dark Horse: USF
The Bulls are projected to finish sixth in the AAC at odds of +1000. This might not be surprising coming off of a disappointing 7-6 season. Year two was a letdown for both head coach Alex Golesh and QB Byrum Brown. I think the Bulls bounce back and out of the teams eligible here. the Bulls and Memphis look the likely bets. A good chunk of the staff returns and notable portal additions include RB Cartevious Norton and OL Thomas Shrader.
Favorites: Tulane, Army, Navy
https://twitter.com/TBTimes_Bulls/status/1916885836164907144
ACC
Dark Horse: SMU
This one feels odd considering SMU was a College Football Playoff team last year. They are a team I’d have in the top three, but Vegas disagrees so I have to pick the Mustangs. SMU is projected to finish fourth with odds at +850. Kevin Jennings, RJ Maryland and plenty of producers return. Rhett Lashlee is one of the better coaches in the country and this team isn’t fading away or a one-year wonder.
Favorites: Clemson, Miami, Louisville
More Sports News
https://twitter.com/ThadWells/status/1929626670354346338
Big Ten
Dark Horse: Iowa
I was looking at picking both Illinois and Iowa here, but the longer odds lead us to the Hawkeyes. At +6500 and projected to finish ninth, they’re a better bet than the Illini at +5000 and projected to finish eighth. Mark Gronowski was a massive pick up and the addition of Warren Ruggiero as coach from Wake Forest could help him make the transition from FCS. Kirk Ferentz, entering season 27 in Iowa City, rarely fields uncompetitive teams. Indiana, projected sixth, is also a team I don’t expect to drop off but unlike with SMU, I opted not to go for a playoff team. Michigan is projected fourth and, frankly, I’m not buying that hype starting a freshmen QB.
Favorites: Ohio State, Penn State, Oregon
https://twitter.com/CoachDanCasey/status/1927157652179550709
Big 12
Dark Horse: TCU
Josh Hoover threw for nearly 4,000 yards last year and 27 TD’s as TCU had a surprising 9-4 season after a disappointing 2023. Sonny Dykes, entering year four, has the opportunity to prove that his 5-7 season in 2023 was an anomaly after a national championship game appearance in 2022. The Horned Frogs have the ninth best odds to win the conference at +1500. This conference has the most interesting of all odds because there is no heavy favorites (Arizona State is +650), but also no extreme longshots (Arizona is +7000), that is compared to the +50000 we are seeing for most conferences. The schedule is tough, which scares me, but TCU returns a lot and seems to be the right pick here.
Favorites: Arizona State, Kansas State, Utah
https://twitter.com/TCUFootball/status/1873107864816177655
Conference USA
Dark Horse: Louisiana Tech
One Sonny to another, this time head coach Sonny Cumbie, a former TCU offensive coordinator. Evan Bullock, only a sophomore, returns at QB for the Bulldogs, the offensive skill players are talented, and the defense was really tough to throw on last year. Stopping the run must improve for this to happen and I think out of all the dark horses here, this team might have the best chance to win the conference. At +850 they have the fourth best odds in C-USA to win it. They play Liberty and WKU on the road, which isn’t ideal.
Favorites: Liberty, Western Kentucky, Jacksonville State
https://twitter.com/ColFootballNews/status/1919598638176580006
MAC
Dark Horse: Eastern Michigan
EMU is projected to finish ninth and sits at +3000 to win the MAC. I see that as too low. The three conference favorites all look very good to me. Chris Creighton has brought stability and success to the Eagles, and I don’t see them having another 2-6 conference record. They ended 2024 on a five-game skid to miss a bowl game for the first time since 2017 (excluding the 2020 COVID year). I don’t think the misfortunes of 2024 continue with Noah Kim and Dontae McMillan in the backfield.
Favorites: Toledo, Ohio, Miami (OH)
https://twitter.com/Moneyline_Mac/status/1931778004969300209
MWC
Dark Horse: Colorado State
This is a team I’ve been bullish on ever since last season ended. I think the Rams will be good. Jay Norvell is a solid coach, Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi returns, the defensive front looks reinforced, and the top teams in the conference (Boise and UNLV) both have massive losses to fill. This will be year four for Norvell. His win totals have gone up every year from three to five to eight. Increasing that again would not shock me. The Rams sit at +1,800 which gives them the fifth-best odds to win the MWC. I waffled between picking Fresno, who I also like, but at half the odds (+900) this one gives you a greater return.
Favorites: Boise State, UNLV, San Jose State
https://twitter.com/DNVR_Rams/status/1930733852215111902
SEC
Dark Horse: South Carolina
In the gauntlet of the SEC this was always going to be difficult to pick, and the odds are so critical here. In the end I joined the Shane Beamer train and am going with the +2400 Gamecocks, which is the eight-best odds in the conference. LSU was in strong consideration with +1000, but that number was a decider. LaNorris Sellers and Dylan Stewart return, the defense will be able to get after anybody. If Sellers can grow as a passer this team is a playoff contender.
Favorites: Texas, Alabama, Georgia
https://twitter.com/TheBigSpur247/status/1929213853520605299
Sun Belt
Dark Horse: Southern Miss
At +3000 and in 12th place, this bet makes sense in a conference that is wide open beyond the top four. New head coach Charles Huff, several assistant coaches and a chunk of this roster won the Sun Belt last year at Marshall. I’m not saying they win it this year, but I do think Southern Miss will be the most improved FBS team in terms of wins over last year after finishing 1-11. With the improvement we’ll see and long odds, you could do worse.
Favorites: James Madison, Louisiana, tie between Louisiana and Georgia Southern
https://twitter.com/RaymondEReeves/status/1867399609246789771
