Trap Door - Three Week 8 Dogs That Could Bite
By Rock Westfall
In Week 8, there are three games where an upset has greater potential than the masses think, including a team and coach with whom everyone is fed up.
Will Eli Serve a Sour Drink on Homecoming Saturday?
The University of Missouri takes great pride in claiming to be the school that created Homecoming. Saturday, the tradition continues with a Homecoming game against the South Carolina Gamecocks. Kickoff time from Faurot Field is 3:30 p.m. ET, with television coverage on SEC Network. The Tigers opened as a 6.5-point home favorite and were bet up to a current line of 7 points.
Besides Homecoming, Mizzou fans have, like golf’s Masters Tournament, a tradition unlike any other. ‘Ol Mizzou faithful always see the dark cloud in the sky. No fan base can match Missouri’s for its pessimism.
Nothing explains the generational misery of Mizzou fans better than the famous 5th Down Game in 1990. The loss to Colorado on a blown count of downs is a day of infamy in Columbia, MO.
Mizzou fans will tell you things are going too well for head coach Eli Drinkwitz and crew. Missouri rebounded from a painful 49-39 home loss to the LSU Tigers with a 38-21 win at Kentucky after the Wildcats opened a 14-0 lead. Mizzou is bowl-bound at 6-1 but eager for more.
South Carolina is 2-4 and falling short of head coach Shane Beamer’s standards and preseason expectations. The Gamecocks are coming off a gut-wrenching 41-37 loss to the Florida Gators. South Carolina led 37-27 midway through the 4th quarter but failed to finish.
Beamer unexpectedly led South Carolina to bowl games in his first two seasons. There was talk of South Carolina taking a big leap forward in 2023. QB Spencer Rattler was mentioned as a potential Heisman Trophy candidate.
Instead, the Gamecocks have become a one-man team. South Carolina ranks 124th for rushing offense, 124th for total defense, and 108th for points allowed. Rattler has carried too much of the burden. Beamer is so frustrated that he broke his foot after kicking a Gatorade tub in a tirade. He will be rocking a cast for a while.
Despite their record, Missouri is far from perfect. The Tigers rank 91st for rushing offense, 73rd against the pass, and 65th for points allowed. Their defense failed to finish against LSU. All this points to a potentially good day for Rattler, who boasts a 163.3 QBR with an 11/4 TD/INT ratio and 2873 yards passing.
The college football investor class would be interested to know that Mizzou has gotten the cash in only one of its last seven games as a home chalk of 7 points or less. In comparison, South Carolina paid in five of its last seven as a road dog of 7 points or less.
Saturday’s matchup is a potential letdown spot for Mizzou. For South Carolina, it’s a chance to rally in support of Beamer and redeem themselves for blowing the Florida game.
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War Eagle Could Soar Against Visiting Ole Miss and Kiffin
Another potential SEC trap is at Jordan-Hare Stadium, where the Auburn Tigers host the Ole Miss Rebels on Saturday. Kickoff time is 7 p.m. ET, with television coverage on ESPN. The public bet the opening line of Ole Miss -5 up to -6.5.
Ole Miss is indeed off to a promising start at 5-1. At the same time, Auburn is 3-3 and struggling to ignite under first-year head coach Hugh Freeze. Both teams are coming off bye weeks and should be fresh. The two weeks give the mastermind Freeze a chance to revamp the offense and add new wrinkles.
Auburn’s passing attack ranks an abysmal 123rd in the land. But the opportunity for improvement is possible against the Ole Miss pass defense that ranks 112th in the country. And with the extra week of preparation, Freeze figures to fully exploit the Rebel weaknesses,
Auburn has bossed the cashier’s cage in this series. To illuminate, Ole Miss got the cash in only two of its last 13 matchups with War Eagle. Also, Ole Miss has left without the money in 17 of their last 20 away games as a favorite of 7 points or less.
Auburn will have a good crowd on hand to back them for the upset. The Ole Miss defense remains a work in progress.
Is Clemson Stepping Into a Hurricane?
The free-falling Miami Hurricanes (4-2) will host the Clemson Tigers (4-2) on Saturday night at Hard Rock Stadium. Kickoff time is 8 p.m. ET, with television coverage on ACC Network. Clemson opened as a -2 point favorite and was bet up to -3.
Nobody wants anything to do with head coach Mario Cristobal and the Miami Hurricanes, which is the entire point of considering The U against a pretty good but hardly great Clemson team.
Cristobal has gone from being the hometown hero returning to save the school he loves and attended to feeling the heat and wrath of fans. His stupidity in blowing a certain home win over Georgia Tech is well-documented. And then last week, the U never seriously threatened North Carolina in a 41-31 road loss.
Yet Miami’s metrics are not atrocious. They rank as a good and somewhat complete team. Clemson’s pedestrian offense is marginally improved but nowhere near prolific. Of great concern is that the Tigers rank 132nd for offensive turnovers.
Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney made news this week implying that Clemson may have to lose a few more games to thin its fair-weather fan herd. Karma anyone?
The investor class is annoyed with Clemson’s weak board value. The Tigers got the cash in only two of their previous seven games. Even worse is Clemson’s mark of 4-10 vs. the line as a road favorite of -4 points or less. Miami has visited the payout window in six of its last eight as a home dog of 4-points or less.
Often, the best time to take a team is when nobody wants them. Especially a capable home team tired of constant criticism getting points against an overrated name brand that has lost a step.
