By: Rock Westfall
The Week 10 Trap Door features potentially strong opportunities for these Big 12 underdogs.
Oklahoma and Oklahoma State in Bedlam Finale
Oklahoma (7-1, 4-1) at Oklahoma State (6-2, 4-1) +6, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
The line has held firm since it opened at Oklahoma -6.
With Oklahoma off to the SEC in 2024, this is the final Bedlam matchup, perhaps forever. The Sooners are reeling after a loss at Kansas, while the Pokes have caught fire with four straight wins.
Of major concern is Oklahoma getting the money only twice in their last nine games as a road favorite of 10 points or less. By contrast, the Cowboys got the cash in their last seven games as a home dog in that range. Full disclosure demands an acknowledgment that Oklahoma is 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games with Oklahoma State. The Sooners are 4-0-1 vs. the linemaker in their last five trips to Stillwater.
However, Oklahoma State is in superior current form and has the motivational intangible of wanting to stick it to Big Brother one final time. Cowboy Nation is living to wreck the Sooner Schooner’s ride to the college football playoff as the ultimate parting gift. In addition, Brent Venables’ OU team has to be rattled after two poor performances.
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BYU Motivated for Bounceback Upset at West Virginia
BYU (5-3, 2-3) +10 at West Virginia (5-3, 3-2), 7 p.m. ET, FS1
West Virginia opened as an eight-point favorite and was bet up to ten.
The betting public is turned off by BYU’s 35-6 Week 9 loss at Texas and concerned about the status of lead RB LJ Martin (questionable, undisclosed) and top receiver Chase Roberts (questionable, hamstring). Also, the Investor Class was impressed with West Virginia’s 41-28 win at UCF last week. Hence, BYU is getting an enhanced bargain price.
BYU has visited the payout window in the last three games that followed a straight-up loss. The Cougars are 7-3 against the oddsmakers as road dogs of 7+ points. West Virginia has covered just four of its last nine games that follow a straight-up win. The Mounties covered only two of their last five as home favorites of 28 points or less.
West Virginia’s 76th-ranked scoring defense could leave the back door wide open. BYU plays with pride for head coach Kalani Sitake and will surely want to atone for last week’s poor performance.
https://twitter.com/CriddleBenjamin/status/1719116668071522791
UCF and Cincinnati Reunite in Lost Seasons
UCF (3-5, 0-5) at Cincinnati (2-6, 0-5) +4.5, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU
UCF opened as a four-point favorite and was bet up to -4.5.
These former American Athletic Conference rivals are in their first season as members of the Big 12. They are getting a rough welcome in their new and more upscale neighborhood.
Neither team has shown reliable value this season. Cincinnati has dropped six consecutive games to the linemaker. UCF has only one payout in its previous five games. The Knights have suffered from board value erosion since last season (3-9 ATS). UCF got the cash in only two of its last ten games as road favorites of seven points or less. The home team has visited the payout window in the last four matchups between UCF and Cincinnati.
It doesn’t make sense to lay points in a matchup of two struggling former AAC powers. Especially with a UCF team ranked 102nd for total defense, 103rd for scoring defense, and 101st for turnovers forced. UCF should not be favored against virtually anyone.
The matchup of Cincinnati’s 6th-ranked rushing offense against UCF’s 129th-ranked rush defense bodes well for the Bearcats. UC RB Corey Kiner brings 642 rushing yards with 5.4 yards per carry. Bearcat QB Emory Jones is a dual-threat QB who likes to run. Jones is coming off a bad game at Oklahoma State but should get well against the horrible Knights’ defense.
