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College Football Recruiting, Opinion, and Analysis

Trap Door: Why the Huskers, Gophers, and Mountaineers are Week 11’s Best Underdogs

The Trap Door sees two questionable favorites and another too expensive for Week 11.

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Oct 6
Oct 6

By Rock Westfall

The Trap Door sees two questionable favorites and another too expensive for Week 11. 

Huskers Seek Bowl Berth and Redemption Against Tumbling Terps

Maryland (5-4, 2-4) at Nebraska (5-4, 3-3) +2

12 p.m. ET, Peacock

Maryland opened as a -1-point favorite and was bet up to -2.

Maryland has dropped four consecutive games straight up and against the spread. The Terrapins are notorious for their struggles in Big Ten games under coach Mike Locksley. Despite having the opportunity to clinch a bowl berth for the first time since 2016, Nebraska came out flat last week in a well-deserved loss at Michigan State.

Much will be made of Maryland’s touted offensive speed advantage against the plodding Huskers. Yet the Terps rank 58th in the nation offensively. But the Nebraska defense will be motivated after its lethargic performance at Sparty. The Blackshirts rank an impressive 17th in the country. Nebraska coach Matt Rhule is a demanding and master motivator. Last week’s loss is not sitting well in Lincoln.

Soft Maryland is 4-10 against the spread in away games, including 4-8 ATS as road chalk. Conversely, the Big Red is 3-1 ATS as home dogs. Also, Nebraska covered four of its last five after a straight-up loss.

The motivational intangibles favor Nebraska, especially with a chance to clinch a bowl berth at home in front of college football’s best fans. 

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Gophers Seek Gold Against Broken Boilers 

Minnesota +1 (5-4, 3-3) at Purdue (2-7, 1-5)

3:30 p.m. ET, NBC

Minnesota opened as a -1-point favorite, but Purdue was quickly bet up to a -1-point home chalk.

Purdue is a bad football team that should not be favored against almost anyone, especially a Big Ten team with a winning record. The Boilermakers rank 110th for scoring offense. That metric doesn’t match well against a decent Minnesota defense (39th). Also, Purdue has a much more lengthy injury list than Minnesota.  The Boilermakers 109th ranked scoring defense will offer the struggling Minnesota offense a respite.  

The Gophers are 4-1 against the spread when coming off a straight-up loss. And Minnesota paid in eight of its last 12 as road dogs. In comparison, Purdue is 3-11 ATS as home favorites, with five straight failures. The Golden Gophers got the money in four of their last five against the Boilers.

Minnesota is consistently motivated after a loss under coach PJ Fleck and wants to clinch bowl eligibility. Purdue is amid a lost season, and the anticipated atmosphere and small crowd at Ross-Ade Stadium will not inspire anyone.

Mounties Want a Ride on Sooner Schooner 

West Virginia +13 (6-3, 4-2) at Oklahoma (7-2, 4-2)

7 p.m. ET, FOX

The line opened at Oklahoma -13, where it has stayed steady.

Oklahoma is reeling with two consecutive straight-up losses, including last week in the final Bedlam against Oklahoma State. Second-year coach Brent Venables is under fire for the slide and the likelihood of missing the Big 12 championship game and College Football Playoff. OU has been guilty of undisciplined play lately. Meanwhile, West Virginia is bowl-bound and riding a two-game winning streak.

The Sooners have failed to cover three in a row. OU is 1-3 against the spread as home chalk of -14 points or less. West Virginia has gotten the money in six of their last eight games. The Mountaineers saw the payout window in four of their last five as double-digit road dogs. OU got the cash in only one of its last four games against West Virginia.

Oklahoma’s 78th-ranked defense should give West Virginia QB Garrett Greene plenty of opportunities. The Sooners are likely to be pressing against a rapidly improving Mountaineer team.

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