Trap Door – Week 9 Potential Paying Pups
By: Rock Westfall
Three dogs offer the potential to bite hard on questionable favorites in Week 9
Gus Bus Has Overpriced Fare
West Virginia (4-3, 2-2) at UCF -7 (3-4, 0-4), 12 p.m. ET, FS1
After winning and covering four consecutive games, West Virginia has dropped its most recent two matchups straight up and against the spread. A bizarre and gut-wrenching 41-39 loss at Houston continues to threaten the rest of the Mounties season and the job security of coach Neal Brown. On Saturday, the Mountaineers have a solid shot at getting back on track at UCF against the Knights.
UCF is riding a four-game straight-up losing streak with one payout in that stretch, last week in a 31-29 loss at Oklahoma. UCF coach Gus Malzahn is finding life rough in the Big 12.
UCF’s problems, especially on defense (93rd overall, 93rd points allowed, and 123rd against the rush), are a poor matchup for West Virginia’s 25th-ranked rushing offense. Also, WVU QB Garrett Greene (141.8 QBR) should find plenty of opportunities.
Cowboys Seek To Bust Broncos
Wyoming (5-2, 2-1) at Boise State -5 (3-4, 2-1), 5:30 p.m. ET, FS2
Once upon a time, the Boise State Broncos printed money on the famed blue turf of Albertsons Stadium. But these days, the blue turf means little. Boise State is one of the worst values on the board, with only two payouts in seven games. The Broncos are coming off a bye week that followed a catastrophic 31-30 loss at Colorado State, where BSU blew a 30-10 lead with under six minutes to play.
Boise State head coach Andy Avalos is under justifiable fire for the rapid decline of a program that used to beat the elite. The Broncos have an atrocious defense (116th overall, 130th against the pass, 108th points allowed) that gets little cover from an erratic offense (60th scoring).
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Wyoming coach Craig Bohl operates in relative obscurity but is one of the most underappreciated coaches in college football. Wyoming has a Power Five win this year over Texas Tech and was respectable in a loss at Texas, getting the money in the process.
The Cowboys have an adequate rushing attack that should get its share against the terrible Boise State stop unit. Harrison Waylee (540 YDS, 7.2 YPC) leads the Wyoming ground game. QB Andrew Peasley (141.6 QBR, 12/2 TD/INT) is also an asset.
Wyoming has covered five of its last seven as road dogs. The Cowboys got the cash in seven of their last eight against the Broncos.
Arizona Pays Against the Pac-12 Powers
Oregon State at Arizona +3.5 (4-3, 2-2), 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Arizona head coach Jedd Fisch is winning converts in his third year on the job. His hire was met with skepticism, but the doubters are becoming enthusiastic believers. On Saturday night, the Wildcats host one of the biggest games in recent years at Arizona Stadium against the #11 Oregon State Beavers.
The Wildcats are coming off a 44-6 statement-making win at Washington State as 7.5-point road dogs. Before that, they nearly upset USC on the road in a 43-31 loss as 21.5-point dogs. Also impressive was a 31-24 loss to Washington as 20-point home dogs. Arizona can line up with the best of the Pac-12.
The line for this game opened at Oregon State -2 and was bet up to -3.5 and -4 at some books. Thus, the Wildcats are getting an enhanced price as they set a potentially dangerous trap for Oregon State.
Fisch won’t reveal who the starting QB will be on Saturday night. Original starter Jayden de Laura (157.2 QBR) and recent starter Noah Fifita (156.7 QBR) have both played well. The freshman Fifita has twice won Pac-12 Freshman of the Week honors this season.
Oregon State paid in just three of its last eight as a road favorite. Arizona got the cash in six of its last nine as home dogs.
