Upon Further National Review - Week 9
By Rock Westfall
A National Review of Caleb and Lincoln, Big Game James, Brian and Kirk, The Fatal Attraction of Dan Enos, and more!
When Caleb Williams Leaves the Life of Riley Shall Improve
Following USC’s 34-32 gut-shot loss to Utah, there was social media speculation that perhaps QB Caleb Williams should skip the rest of the season to protect himself for the NFL Draft. Traditionalists screamed that he could not quit on his teammates. At this moment, that is true. USC’s season comes down to a November 4 home game against the Washington Huskies on ABC primetime.
If USC can somehow beat Washington, they will immediately climb back into the race for a berth in the Pac-12 championship game. But if the Trojans lose, making the Pac-12 championship game would be improbable. The national championship, already a long shot, would be impossible.
At first glance, Williams has the best QB rating of his career (179.4). But a deeper dive reveals four interceptions on 237 pass attempts, compared to five picks on 500 attempts in 2022. Also, Williams has fumbled four times in 2023 compared to three fumbles all of last year.
The greatness of Williams is undeniable. He was the 2022 Heisman Trophy winner. And he did enough to win the game against Utah with an 11-yard TD run to put the Trojans ahead 32-31 with 1:46 to play. It was not Williams’ fault that USC’s defense wilted.
Yet having Williams around has not brought head coach Lincoln Riley near a national championship. In their only season together at Oklahoma, the Sooners went 10-2. Last year at USC, Riley and Williams went 11-3. Worse yet, they were cut to ribbons and mauled in a Pac-12 championship game loss to Utah. Following that was an embarrassing loss to the Tulane Green Wave in the Cotton Bowl.
USC is 6-2 this year, with back-to-back losses at Notre Dame and then to Utah. Wiliams is 3-6 in his career vs. Top 25 opponents.
If Williams were to leave today, Riley has highly touted alternatives in redshirt sophomore Miller Moss and freshman Malachi Nelson. While lacking experience, both would likely thrive for the proven quarterback whisperer Riley.
Caleb Williams has outgrown the college game. And it is reasonable to question if he stays to the end when USC is eliminated from the Pac-12 race, would he really still be “there”?
Williams has come off as distracted and dreaming of the NFL bag this season. Some have even called him selfish. Williams irritated many by stating that he wants to be a part owner of whoever he plays for in the pros. It has all distracted a team struggling to beat championship-level competition.
The day Williams leaves Heritage Hall, USC will feel renewed. Riley can get a new QB up to speed without the current noise. The great irony is that USC is not winning at a championship level with Williams. Perhaps it could without him.
Whenever Williams leaves USC, it will be best for all concerned.
Oct 14, 2023; South Bend, Indiana, USA; USC Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) reacts in the closing minutes of the game against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Notre Dame Stadium. Notre Dame won 48-20.
© Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports
Is Riley a Loaded Lincoln off the Base Kingsbury Model?
At Oklahoma and USC, Lincoln Riley has a career record of 72-15. Oklahoma never finished with a national ranking worse than 10th under Riley. Yet in Norman, Riley never came close to winning a national championship. Humiliating playoff losses to Georgia and LSU are hard to forget. And those losses revealed the one-trick pony nature of Riley.
Riley is one of the most brilliant offensive minds in the game. College and NFL coaches seek him for off-season whiteboard and video sessions. Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones is said to covet Riley.
But Riley has never fielded a serious defense in seven seasons as an HC. In this, he has much in common with former Texas Tech and Arizona Cardinals HC Kliff Kingsbury, who now serves on Riley’s staff.
Kingsbury was also celebrated as a QB whisperer and passing game guru. Yet he flopped at Texas Tech (35-40) and Arizona (28-37-1). Kingsbury teams were soft, defenseless, sloppy, and one-dimensional. In that, he is a perfect fit at USC.
Is James Frankin a Luxury Version of the Jimbo Fisher Base Model?
Last week, Penn State lost a 20-12 slobber-knocker at Ohio State. The loss was the latest in a litany of big game disappointments for coach James Franklin. As a result, Nittany Lion fans suffer from a crisis of faith in their coach.
Franklin is a super slick salesman and ace recruiter. His roster is good enough to match up against the best. He has a 5-star QB (Drew Allar) and an elite defense. But at Ohio State, the Nittany Lions offense was rendered helpless and blew numerous opportunities gifted by the Buckeyes. The lack of production also wasted a stellar defensive effort.
Franklin fell to 3-16 in big games with that loss at The Shoe. Franklin is 1-9 against the Scarlet and Gray and 2-12 against Top 25 programs on the road.
Franklin’s reputation as a master recruiter who can’t deliver on game day resembles Texas A&M HC Jimbo Fisher. Fisher is annually celebrated on National Signing Day only to flop with loaded rosters each fall.
On November 11, Penn State hosts the powerhouse Michigan Wolverines. It is a chance for Franklin to redeem himself and change the narrative. Or for another Jimbo-sized disappointment.
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Is it Brian or His Pop’s Gun Offense?
If Iowa fans got their wish and offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz was fired, would it matter? Certainly not in the short run, with a plodding offensive roster and his dad’s (head coach Kirk Ferentz) outdated playbook.
Brian Ferentz has no business being a FBS OC. But he is running the offense that his dad demands. Whoever would take over for Brian would inherit that same dusty playbook. And Kirk isn’t about to change at age 68, and now in his 25th season at the helm.
But beyond the playbook is another issue that critics forget about. Iowa had some dynamic teams in the early Ferentz years. From 2002 through 2004, Iowa finished with a final national ranking of 8th each season. In 2009, the Hawkeyes finished 7th in the land.
Ferentz recruited much better talent in those days. But a litany of off-field issues that included criminal offenses made Kirk gun-shy. As a result of the Iowa administration’s annoyance with the bad publicity, Ferentz stopped recruiting as many at-risk elite players in fear of more off-field woes. And Iowa has been a plodding program of defense and kicking teams ever since.
Brian and Kirk will never be mistaken for the late great Bill Walsh. But there is more to the story than meets the eye. Still, the Iowa offense is an inexcusable, disgraceful abomination that should certainly be more productive than it is.
The Fatal Attraction of Dan Enos
Arkansas coach Sam Pittman, now roasting to near well-done in the pig pit, served up offensive coordinator Dan Enos as an appetizer on Sunday after a 7-3 home loss to the beatable Mississippi State Bulldogs. The Arkansas metrics were abysmal and not going to move.
Pittman praised Enos for working long hours, although he left out the part about Enos taking time to get into social media fights with fans on his coffee breaks. But the deeper question is, what about Dan Enos attracts HCs to hire him?
Bret Bielema failed as the Arkansas HC for many reasons, including his lack of self-discipline and poor relationships with Texas high school coaches that served to damage recruiting. But Bielema also flopped because of his blind spot for Enos.