The Mississippi State program turned heads this year when they dismantled Texas A&M and Arkansas back-to-back weeks, scoring 84 points between the two games and looking formidable. Since then, they’ve taken tough losses to Kentucky and Alabama, scoring just 23 points between the last two games.
Is this new for a Mike Leach-led team? Absolutely not. All of his teams have been inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. He has only surpassed ten wins in two seasons as a head coach since 2000, once at Texas Tech (2008) and once at Washington State (2018), where both teams finished their seasons 11-2.
In all three SEC losses this season, the Bulldogs’ offense has looked poor, struggling to run the basic functions of offense and failing to score over 17 points. Coming into the season, I had suggested that perhaps Mike Leach was on the hot seat. Why wouldn’t he be? Is there any promising future under him?
The Future Outlook for the Bulldogs
Right now, Mississippi State is not up to par with the rest of the SEC West in recruiting. They are 11th in the SEC, 33rd in the country, and only are ahead of Kentucky, Missouri, and Vanderbilt as a class in the SEC. Leach has never finished ahead of tenth in the league (2020); a lot of that groundwork was done by his predecessor, Joe Moorhead.
That’s not promising.
To put that into perspective, Moorhead had the tenth-ranked recruiting class in the SEC in 2019, his final season at Mississippi State, the lowest of his tenure. His first class was ranked eighth in the SEC.
I was at the 2019 Music City Bowl, covering the game from the press box. That was Moorhead’s last game as their head coach. It was the end of his second season, an up-and-down year, and they had snuck past their rivals, Ole Miss, with Elijah Moore’s inexplicable touchdown celebration. In that game, Mississippi State blew a 14-0 advantage and lost to the Louisville Cardinals, 38-28.
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We walked out of that press box that night with the mutual understanding that Moorhead was an odd fit for the program and he did not have their confidence. He was on his way out the door. Two days later, Moorhead was fired, paving the way for Leach to take over.
A lot has to be brought into question about the competency of Joe Moorhead and his staff. #MusicCityBowl
— John “Draft” Vogel (@DraftVogel) December 30, 2019
This has the same, similar feeling around the program. We know that the Bulldogs administration isn’t afraid to pull the trigger and move on from a coach if they don’t think he’s the right fit. I think it’s crystal-clear that Leach isn’t a good fit at Mississippi State.
Has Mike Leach been figured out in the SEC?
The Mike Leach air raid system has been well documented over the last few years – an offense that runs the same basic ten plays over and over again and forces a defense to stay disciplined against them. His recruiting pitch to quarterbacks has been simple, with Leach asking how his prospect feels about leading the nation in passing every year.
This year, he’s added a lot more of the run game to his playcalling sheet, adding some RPO looks and designed quarterback runs with Will Rogers. That seemed to provide the spark they were looking for in the wins over Texas A&M and Arkansas as those defenses were dialed in to protect against the air raid and ended up getting run all over. Now, Kentucky and Alabama have both proven that defenses have the answer for this new wrinkle from Leach.
What else can he do?
There’s a lot more at stake over the next four games
After this bye week, Mississippi State has three remaining SEC games left – home games against Auburn and Georgia, a “bye” week against East Tennessee State, and the season finale on Thanksgiving against Ole Miss in Oxford.
If Mississippi State struggles against Auburn, I think it will about spell the end of the Leach era in Starkville. If they struggle against their rivals Ole Miss, a school that Leach has not yet defeated, it is over. Recruiting is dropping, Leach is running out of wrinkles, and in a division with coaches like Nick Saban, Jimbo Fisher, Lane Kiffin, Brian Kelly, and Sam Pittman, Leach just isn’t cutting it at their level.
Only time will tell, but I’m leaning on a new head coach being in Starkville in 2023.
