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College Football Recruiting, Opinion, and Analysis

Which Power Four Coaches Face Heat in Year 2?

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Kalen DeBoer
Sep 14, 2024; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Kalen DeBoer during the game against the Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium.

Photo Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

A few weeks ago, I wrote about the Power Four head coaches entering year three. Now we are diving into those entering year two. It used to be that we would rarely see a coach in year two be under fire or on the hot seat, but times have changed. As the money multiplies and demands are added, the expectation to win right now grows and grace periods shrink. In recent years we have seen multiple power conference head coaches get fired at the end of, or before, year two. Ryan Walters, Bryan Harsin, Willie Taggart, are three who failed for one reason or another.

Similar to the year three article I will rank these coaches on a Hot Seat Meter from 1 (coolest) to 10 (scorching). We will see lower numbers here, in part, because few schools want to fire a guy that quick but that doesn’t mean these coaches don’t have heightened expectations in 2025. Much of these ratings aren’t based on a likelihood of getting fired this year, but rather how hot the seat will be going into year three in 2026. We do have significantly more year two coaches, 12, than we did year three coaches, nine. 

ACC

Bill O’Brien, Boston College

Hot Seat Meter: 3

BC went 7-6 in O’Brien’s first year in charge, which was the same record that Jeff Hafley had in 2023. The season started well, was rough in the middle, then ended well. They were not a consistent team. Beating Florida State (when we still thought they might be good), Syracuse and Pitt were good wins but losing back-to-back to Virginia and Virginia Tech were bad losses. O’Brien took over a scandal-ridden Penn State team and quickly got them competitive. He then was a good head coach with the Houston Texans, winning four division titles in six years (it was as a GM he was bad). I expect his plan to work and growth to happen. If BC misses a bowl game he might face some pressure entering 2026, otherwise he’s looking ok. 

Manny Diaz, Duke

Hot Seat Meter: 2

I was a big fan of the Diaz hire, and even I didn’t expect it to get off to a start like this. Diaz did inherit a good situation from Mike Elko, you’ll find him later in this list, but going 9-4 exceeded all expectations for the Blue Devils. His defenses always play aggressive and leave the DBs to fend for themselves, and that has worked wonders. QB Darian Mensah comes in from Tulane to run the offense this year. Diaz is another coach who has identified talented assistants around him, that will be a pattern here for the guys who dominated year one. He looks to have things in a great place. Duke isn’t just a “basketball school” anymore. 

Fran Brown, Syracuse

Hot Seat Meter: 1

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Few coaches hit the ground running faster than Brown at Syracuse. The former Georgia DB coach took the Orange from 6-7 under Dino Babers in 2023 to 10-3 last year and a Holiday Bowl win. He has hired good assistant coaches, done well in the portal and is recruiting at a highly competitive level. If he keeps this up he won’t be in the ACC for long, the Big Ten or SEC will come calling. He has simply been fantastic. 

Big Ten

Curt Cignetti, Indiana

Hot Seat Meter: 0, maybe even colder. Microwave him and he’s still a zero. 

The best season in Indiana Hoosier history was Cignetti’s first season. An 11-1 regular season record and a trip to the inaugural 12-team playoff were a dream for Indiana, something no one expected entering the season. Their only two losses were to Ohio State and Notre Dame, who played for the national title. Cignetti had one of the most impressive first seasons in recent memory, though Sony Dykes is up there. Cignetti has an enormously long leash now and has earned it. We’ll see him here for a long time if he wants to stay. At 64, I do wonder if he’d be in the running for bigger jobs. 

Jonathan Smith, Michigan State

Hot Seat Meter: 5

I loved the Smith hire when it happened, and certainly it still could work but year one was a struggle. The Spartans finished 5-7 with only two conference wins. Smith’s team wasn’t awful, but context matters and he was expected to be better than that and among the better first year coaches in the Big Ten. A bowl game is needed in 2025 otherwise he’ll be on a seat that is heating up entering 2026. QB Aidan Chiles, who followed him from Oregon State, must play better for that to happen. The Spartans roster looks improved, and Smith did take a few years at OSU to get his system in place and have a winning record. He might not be given that long of a leash here. 

Deshaun Foster, UCLA

Hot Seat Meter: 4

Foster’s maiden voyage was a tale of two halves. The Bruins started 1-5 but then finished 4-2. They were much better in the second half of the season. Some of that was expected, considering they played way better teams early in the year but they did many things better and looked cohesive and fundamental. I wasn’t a fan of this hire, I still have reservations, but Foster had them looking better late. If he can get transfer QB Nico Iamaleava to keep improving in 2025, he’ll be safe. But a bowl game is probably the minimum expectation in 2025. Considering Foster is an alumnus here, that extends the grace period, but it’s time to start improving or 2026 could be nervy. 

Jedd Fisch, Washington

Hot Seat Meter: 4

I like Fisch, and I’m bullish on Washington being good this year. I think they’re going to be much better. But we can’t bank on that here and year one for Fisch, and UW’s year one in the Big Ten, was a disappointment. In 2023 they played for a national title under Kalen DeBoer, which means the 6-7 of last year was a significant regression. Some of that was expected considering what they lost but a winning record was still seen as the minimum. I think this washes away and a solid 2025 happens. But if I’m wrong, and the Huskies only win five or six again, Fisch will be feeling the pressure entering 2026. 

Big 12

Brent Brennan, Arizona

Hot Seat Meter: 6

Brennan was 4-8 in his first season, which followed Fisch winning 10 games in 2023. Some regression may have been expected but not that much. The Wildcats were the preseason pick to finish fifth and instead finished 15th. Arizona loses their best player in Tetairoa McMillan and second round OL pick Johan Savaiinea, as well. This team looks like it could struggle again in 2025, which puts Brennan on the hot seat entering 2026. RB transfer Ismail Mahdi and WR Kris Hutson could have immediate impact, for Brennan’s sake they might have to. 

Willie Fritz, Houston

Hot Seat Meter: 3

I don’t think many people were happy going 4-8 last year, but I also don’t think it was a catastrophe. As I said, context matters, and moving to the Big 12 in 2023 saw an identical record and the administration knew there would be growing pains. Fritz was brought in for his ability to build, grow and establish programs. That doesn’t happen overnight. His reputation for doing just that is among the best in the country. Improvement is expected in 2025 and making a bowl game would be an attainable goal that can happen. If the Cougars win 4-5 again, I don’t think there is a massive uproar but may increase pressure entering year three. 

SEC

Kalen DeBoer, Alabama

Hot Seat Meter: 4

To the Alabama fans who say he isn’t up to the job, needs to win now or else, he should be fired after this year. You are idiots and I don’t respect your opinion, because it isn’t worth hearing. You are spoiled, but you know that. That’s probably the harshest criticism of a group I’ve ever written, but it’s deserved. DeBoer made the national title in Nick Saban’s last season, unlike Saban. We are only two years removed from him doing that out of a competitive Pac-12 in its final season. DeBoer won nine games in his maiden season, that’s quite good. He has won games at every school he’s been head coach at. He is one of the gems of the game. I put his at four because he does need double-digit wins or else some people will question him going into 2026, this year he is 100 percent safe.

Jeff Lebby, Mississippi State

Hot Seat Meter: 5 

Lebby was an abysmal 2-10 in his first season with the Bulldogs, who did not win a conference game. I do think this year brings improvement, but it is difficult to see them make a bowl game. If they don’t do that then his seat is hotter going into 2026. Two seasons without a bowl game after only missing two since 2009 would not sit well with the fan base. Expectations aren’t sky high, but they do expect that. Lebby took over a rough situation from Zach Arnett, he didn’t do himself any favors in his first year but the roster looks improved in 2025. Blake Shapen is a proven QB and Davon Booth and Fluff Bothwell are solid RBs. The roster still is very young—more than 80 percent in their first or second year in Starkville. 

Mike Elko, Texas A&M

Hot Seat Meter: 2

Elko’s first season at A&M saw a terrible November, but aside from that it was a resounding success. They were the last SEC team to lose a conference game and controlled their own destiny throughout the entire regular season. They look to have a better defense in 2025 with Elko calling the shots. On offense they return the bulk of the offensive line, Marcel Reed at QB, and have one of the deepest RB rooms in America. Expectations are rising for the Aggies, but people are happy and optimistic with Elko. 

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