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Who Has the Best Odds to Be a Surprise National Champion?

Luke Brumm drops his picks for the teams who have the best odds to be surprise national champions next year.

Luke Brumm| June 12, 2023 (Updated: July 9, 2025)
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Last season, we saw TCU surprise everyone and make the Playoff, and then the National Championship game. There are a few teams who could make a similar splash as them. These teams were all good last year, so they wouldn’t be as big of a shock as the Horned Frogs, but a lot of people would still be surprised if one of these teams ended up lifting the trophy in Houston at the end of the season. 


TCU surprised everyone by making the CFP National Championship last season

Florida State – 8 to 1 

The Seminoles open the season with a huge game against LSU. If they can win that, they can win any game on their schedule. Their other biggest challenge will be at Clemson. I see them winning the rest of their games, so if they go 2-0 vs the aforementioned teams, then Florida State could be right in the thick of the Playoff talk. I love Jordan Travis and the transfers they have brought in. I’m intrigued to see what happens with them. 

FSU QB Jordan Travis.

Penn State – 10 to 1 

The Nittany Lions are a really good team that just happens to play in the same division as Michigan and Ohio State. They went 11-2 last season with those two schools being their only losses. They ended up in the Rose Bowl and blew out Utah. They’ll have a change at quarterback this season, which I actually think will help them. Drew Allar is a former five-star and has loads of talent and potential. If he can put it together this year, Penn State could be a team to watch out for. 

Penn State QB Drew Allar.

Texas – 10 to 1 

I truly believe that Texas would have had a much better record last season and would have beaten Alabama if Quinn Ewers never gotten injured. They ended 8-5 and will definitely look to improve on that this upcoming year. Ewers is back healthy and Georgia transfer AD Mitchell just added more talent to an already uber-talented WR room. They have four and five-star players all around their roster. Steve Sarkisian has a chance to have the best Longhorn team in a long time in 2023.

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Tennessee – 12 to 1 

Tennessee is an interesting team going into this season. They came out of nowhere last year and went 11-2 with wins over Pittsburgh, LSU, Kentucky, Clemson, and most famously, Alabama. Hendon Hooker had an incredible season in Josh Heupel‘s offense. I love his schemes and they set his players up for success. I believe Joe Milton can come in and be very productive in 2023. If the defense can improve, Tennessee could definitely be a playoff and title contender. 

Tennessee QB Joe Milton.

Oregon – 14 to 1 

Oregon ended the season 10-3, which isn’t bad when you consider how their first game went. They racked up eight straight wins after that week one blowout loss vs Georgia. They did lose to Washington and Oregon State towards the end, but those were both ranked teams. Veteran quarterback Bo Nix is back again and scouts have him as a first-round selection in next year’s draft. The recruiting out there has also been tremendous, Dan Lanning has done a great job. I like this program and I think they can challenge USC, Utah, and Washington for that Pac-12 championship, and I wouldn’t be very surprised to see them in the playoff. 

Oregon QB Bo Nix.
Category: College FootballTag: Florida State, Oregon, Penn State, Tennessee, Texas
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