By Alec Nederveld
The Wisconsin Badgers are 5-4, 3-3 in the Big Ten and to me have been one of the more interesting teams in the Big Ten this year. Luke Fickell is in his second year as he changes the program. He, alongside Air Raid protégé Phil Longo and 3-3-5 enthusiast Mike Tressel, planned to modernize the Wisconsin program, although it’s been slower than expected.
What’s worse for Wisconsin is to me, there’s not one problem that can be fixed. The roster just isn’t as talented as in years past, with an underwhelming transfer portal class and players not recruited for Longo’s and Tressel’s schemes. Speaking of that, I still don’t think the 3-3-5, and especially the Air Raid are best for the Badgers. Combine all of that, and you have a very disappointed Wisconsin fanbase.
Can these problems be fixed in 2024? I don’t think so, but I think the Badgers still have a strong future and we’ll see a positive change soon.
Why has Wisconsin struggled in 2024?
Starting with the schedule, Wisconsin had long been able to hide in a weaker Big Ten West division. In some years, the best team in the Big Ten West would be the fourth-best in the conference. This season, divisions are gone and conference realignment has added Oregon, UCLA, USC, and Washington, four more teams in competition with the Badgers.
In 2024, Wisconsin will host three top-five teams: No. 4 Alabama in the non-conference, No. 3 Penn State, and is set to play No. 1 Oregon on Saturday. The Badgers have another loss against then-No. 13 USC in Los Angeles, another team Wisconsin would not have normally played with cross-country travel to worry about.
Still, that excuse doesn’t fly for the fifth loss, a 42-10 loss against Iowa. To the tune of 329 rushing yards and five touchdowns, the Hawkeyes imposed their will on Wisconsin with a lot of the same principles as past Badger teams. Iowa has yet to modernize like Wisconsin has, they were much more physical that game and have been a better program in recent years.
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In the past, Wisconsin should have been able to flip at least one or two losses into wins, but that hasn’t happened in 2024. The Badgers just do not have a very talented roster, and I especially struggle to find impact-makers. On offense, RB Tawee Walker is very good but isn’t on the same level as previous UW backs. Veteran LB Jaheim Thomas leads the team in tackles, but his 52 tackles and two tackles for loss don’t pop off the charts. Honestly, none of Wisconsin’s stats pop off the charts, even from the DBs. I think that’s the best position group on the team yet they only have three picks as a team.
As much as I don’t think the Air Raid or 3-3-5 can be successful at Wisconsin, personnel is certainly holding it back. This is an offense that was supposed to have Tyler Van Dyke leading the helm, instead it’s Braedyn Locke who’s had turnover issues and has largely been ineffective. The defensive line meanwhile is a weakness and Albany transfer Elijah Hills has been the only impact piece.
Still, when so much of the Big Ten is built around physicality, I don’t think the Badger current schemes can ever truly be successful. We are seeing similar problems with USC as the Trojans are 4-5 (1-5 in Big Ten play). They are at the bottom of the conference in sacks (13) and 14th in tackles for loss (40). Wisconsin is in a very similar position, with only 14 sacks and tied for the Big Ten’s fewest tackles for loss with 34. That’s not gonna get it done.
Of Wisconsin’s five wins, only FCS South Dakota (7-2) and Rutgers are above .500. The Badgers did have that strong three-game run in October, defeating Purdue, Rutgers, and Northwestern by a combined 117-16. The Badgers have been beating the teams they should but just can’t break through and get a win to be truly proud of.
How will Wisconsin finish in 2024?
After playing Oregon on Saturday, a game where the Badgers are roughly two-touchdown underdogs, Wisconsin finishes the season with two old Big Ten West teams, going to Nebraska and hosting Minnesota. It would take close to a miracle to beat Oregon, but the final two games are certainly winnable. Nebraska is 5-4 with an offense making major mid-season adjustments. Minnesota has faired slightly better, currently 6-4.
Those two games are winnable, and the expectation should be winning one of them – preferably Minnesota – to reach six wins and make a bowl for the 23rd season in a row. Wisconsin has dominated that series for some time now and Paul Bunyan’s Axe should stay in Madison.
Many analysts are projecting Wisconsin to play in the Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium against a middle-of-the-road ACC team. Ending the season 8-5 is certainly a possibility and it gives Badger fans more confidence entering 2025. Barring a huge collapse, I’m excited for next year for Wisconsin, if the right changes are made.
Why I’m still excited about Wisconsin’s future
There are a couple of caveats to this, but I think Luke Fickell will be able to turn things around in his third year. First, even more of Paul Chryst’s players are pushed out to graduation or the transfer portal, and the ones still here will only take another step forward and have embraced the change.
I also anticipate a change of scheme, particularly on offense. Phil Longo has been on the hot seat for some time now and it’s been proven, barring a miraculous turn-around, his offense doesn’t work. I think Wisconsin should, and will, shift to more of a power-spread look, combining the physical past with a more modern implementation.
I look at Arkansas with Sam Pittman and KJ Jefferson in the 2021 and 2022 seasons as a blueprint of what can be done in Madison. The teams were built around physical football, but they operated out of the pistol and shotgun with tight ends and H-backs instead of the I formation. Their identity was still a physical run game, and it worked very well.
Having a mobile quarterback will really make that offense run well and Wisconsin has one in waiting. Mabrey Mettauer is a four-star true freshman and I think is the future of the program. Mettauer is still a raw prospect, but when he’s ready, he’s a guy you can build around within a power spread and make the most out of it.
Elsewhere, the Badgers are recruiting well and should be able to fill in some of the personnel flaws. Fickell is a fantastic player developer (look at what he did with Cincinnati) and he will have his guys ready to go sooner rather than later. While the 2025 schedule, including trips to Bryant-Denny Stadium and Autzen Stadium, isn’t much easier, I still think we will see a noticeable improvement from the Badgers in 2025.
Year three is usually when you find out if you have the right head coach. It’s a crucial year for Fickell, and I think he and Wisconsin will answer the call.
