Mike Farrell Sports

College Football Recruiting, Opinion, and Analysis

Stop Worrying About Caleb’s Nail Color. Lincoln Riley’s Track Record in the NFL is the Real Issue

While everyone is worrying about the color of the presumptive top pick’s phone and nails, the real danger in drafting him lies in the results, or lack thereof, of Riley’s other QBs

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Nov 18
Nov 18

By Rock Westfall

This week, Caleb Williams drew media attention for his pink phone and nails. That alone is not necessarily a cause for concern. But what is worrisome is that USC head coach Lincoln Riley does not have a promising record of developing NFL-ready QBs.

Lincoln Riley’s Success Fails to Translate in The League  

Since becoming a college football head coach in 2017 at Oklahoma, Lincoln Riley developed three QBs into Heisman Trophy winners. At OU, Baker Mayfield won the Heisman in 2017, and Kyler Murray won it in 2018. When Riley became USC coach, Williams hoisted the Heisman in 2022. Another Riley QB, Jalen Hurts, who transferred to Oklahoma from Alabama, made it to the final table at the famed Downtown Athletic Club in 2019 as LSU QB Joe Burrow was ultimately named the Heisman winner.

Despite the strong college track record of Riley QBs, only Hurts has had sustained NFL success. Ironically, Hurts played only one season for Riley. And there is a reason why Hurts was the exception, which we’ll touch on later.

Meanwhile, Mayfield and Murray have not lived up to billing in the NFL. And there are substantive reasons beyond the color pink why Williams has his share of doubters, despite his near-certain status as the first pick of the 2024 NFL Draft by the Chicago Bears.

Except for Hurts, Riley’s QBs have arrived at the NFL entitled, indulged, and lacking professionalism. 

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Lincoln Riley Failed to Polish Baker Mayfield 

Before Lincoln Riley became the Oklahoma head coach, he was the offensive coordinator and QB coach for the Sooners. Baker Mayfield benefited from Riley’s mentoring to the point that when Riley took over as HC, Mayfield broke out for a Heisman Trophy campaign in 2017. Oklahoma finished 12-2 and made the College Football Playoff.

Following that epic campaign, Mayfield was the hottest prospect for the 2018 NFL Draft and went first overall by the Cleveland Browns. But from the time Mayfield arrived at Cleveland, his career rapidly devolved into a disappointment.

Mayfield was wildly inconsistent at Cleveland, with good years in 2018 and 2020 but poor performances in 2019 and 2021. In 2020, he led the Browns to the playoffs; hence, Cleveland and Mayfield appeared to be all future. 

But with Mayfield’s success came national endorsements, fan and media hype, and expectations through the roof. It all went to Mayfield’s head. He was noticeably distracted and quickly became discredited.

Mayfield never had a polished demeanor since his days at Oklahoma, where he had a rambunctious personality. Mayfield is known for popping off and blowing up in outbursts. Riley never guided Mayfield into maturity and professionalism. Cleveland finally gave up on Mayfield after a disastrous 2021 campaign.

In the past two seasons, Mayfield played for three NFL teams. Last year, he had somewhat of a comeback season, leading the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to the NFC South championship and making the Pro Bowl, eventually leading to his signing of a $100 million contract.

Now, the question is whether Mayfield has found maturity and can sustain his success. He still has plenty of doubters and a roller-coaster resume.

Kyler Murray Left Lincoln Riley Without an NFL-Required Work Ethic 

Murray’s story has been eerily similar to Baker Mayfield’s, both in college and the NFL. After leading Oklahoma to a 12-2 season and a berth in the CFP, Kyler Murray parlayed that and his Heisman Trophy into being the first overall pick of the 2019 NFL Draft by the Arizona Cardinals.

Murray has been unreliable as the Arizona QB. In his third season (2021), he led the Cardinals to the NFL playoffs and was a Pro Bowler. But like Mayfield, Murray was unable to sustain success as his fame and scrutiny increased. 

Most embarrassing of all was a “homework clause” in Murray’s 2022 contract renewal, which was indicative of Murray’s poor work habits and entitled attitude that Riley was unable to coach out of him. Only after the Cardinals caved to public pressure did they later drop the clause.

Jalen Hurts – Tough and Ready Made Upon Arrival  

Jalen Hurts arrived at Oklahoma in 2019 with bruised feelings but also with toughness and tenacity. While playing under the relentless, demanding taskmaster Nick Saban, Hurts was SEC Offensive Player of the Year and First Team All-SEC in 2016. 

But in the 2017 season national championship game against Georgia, Hurts was pulled in the second half for freshman Tua Tagovailoa. Subsequently, Tua led Alabama to a comeback and overtime win for the ages.

Following that championship tilt, Hurts never regained his starting job and left somewhat embittered after the 2018 campaign. Yet Hurts will be the first to tell anyone that, under the pitiless autocrat Saban, he developed toughness, responsibility, a professional demeanor, and a work ethic.

Thus, Riley could work on the football and QB specifics with Hurts, who arrived ready-made for the pros. As quarterback of the Philadelphia Eagles, Hurts has two Pro Bowls and a 2022 NFC championship. He is the only Riley quarterback to succeed significantly in the NFL. But it is Saban, instead of Riley, who deserves the lion’s share of the credit. 

NFL Ignores Riley’s Role in Williams’s Regression – Why?

After leading USC to an 11-3 record and winning the Heisman Trophy, Williams and Riley’s Trojans were touted as favorites to make the 2023 CFP. Instead, the Troy Boys went into free fall and finished 8-5.

Williams’ TD/INT ratio dropped from 42/5 in 2022 to 30/5 in 2023. His yards per attempt went from 9.1 in 2022 to 8.6 in 2023. Most alarmingly, he went from three fumbles/one lost in 2022 to eight fumbles/three lost in 2023.

During the season, there were moments when Williams came off as unfocused, self-centered, arrogant, and less than all-in for the USC cause. Many believe he became bigger than the team. Much of that lays at the feet of Lincoln Riley, who again failed to prepare a star QB with the toughness, leadership skills, responsibility to the team, and work ethic needed for the NFL.

The most disturbing tell was Williams’s insistence that he be a part owner of the NFL team he ends up with. That ego alert came in the midst of USC’s lost season.  

Yet NFL scouts ignore the glaring red flags and remain blinded by Williams’s raw natural ability. 

Caveat Emptor on Riley’s Heisman QBs

Caleb Williams’s apologists claim he had a poor supporting cast at USC in 2023. In that theory, they are really stepping into it.

Justin Fields just wasted three valuable years of his career as QB of the Bears. He was Chicago’s first-round draft pick (11th overall) in 2021. Fields never had a respectable supporting cast and was thrown to the wolves. Despite some flashes of promise and a decent Chicago finish in 2023, the Bears sent Fields to the Pittsburgh Steelers in anticipation of drafting Williams.

Now, Williams is likely to take over that same weak team that Fields could not ignite after Williams was said to have not had enough help at USC. 

Ask yourself this: If Williams could not succeed without solid support at USC, why would he win in the much tougher NFL without a complete team surrounding him? It makes no sense.

Chicago would be well advised to study Williams’ lackluster 2023 campaign and how and why Lincoln Riley’s Heisman Trophy QBs fail to deliver in the NFL. They also may want to investigate their ownership clause.   

Lincoln Riley is not a QB whisperer as much as a coddler and enabler. 

Buyer beware.

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