By Kyle Golik
As the final seconds ticked off at Michigan Stadium, Oregon head coach Dan Lanning took a page out of former Duke basketball coach Mike Krzyzewski’s playbook. In big matchups, Krzyzewski would take timeouts to allow his team to watch fans leave the stands and walk out after they conquered a foe.
Lanning felt it was important to allow his warriors see what they have conquered.
“I already told you in the beginning of the week. I’m going to remind you at some point in this game. I’m going to tell you to look up at the stands at some point in this game. And you’re going to start to see them empty out. We’ve made the decision before we even stepped on the field,” Lanning said earlier this week.
Oregon has a manageable schedule the rest of the way assuming it takes care of business against hated rival Washington – a team Lanning is 0-3 against. The Ducks will likely venture to Indianapolis on Dec. 7 for a rematch against Ohio State or take on the story of the year in Curt Cignetti’s Indiana Hoosiers.
At minimum, Oregon should make the College Football Playoff. They will be favored the rest of the way in the regular season. The Big Ten Championship can go several ways, but Oregon will be a force in the Playoffs.
What could thwart Oregon’s chances is the injury to wide receiver Tez Johnson. Johnson suffered a long-term injury against Michigan and was the clear No. 1 wide receiver for Oregon, leading the team in receptions (64 – which is fifth in the nation) and yards (649) to go with eight touchdowns.
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Quarterback Dillon Gabriel, who leads the nation in completion percentage at 74.8%, will begin to lean on senior Traeshon Holden, sophomore Justius Lowe, and junior Evan Stewart to replace Johnson’s production.
Stewart – a transfer from Texas A&M – has the potential to be that guy. He had a breakout against Ohio State, burning one of the nation’s top defensive backs in Denzel Burke for seven receptions for 149 yards and a touchdown.
Missing Johnson will hurt for now, but Oregon has time to find a guy to step up. They have talent on both sides of the ball, being one of four schools to rank in the Top 15 nationally for both total offense (467.4 yards per game – No. 11) and total defense (294.2 yards per game – No. 11). They can match up with anyone – including the vaunted SEC.
There are five teams vying for potentially four spots in the College Football Playoffs, but I don’t feel this is the year for the SEC to beat Oregon.
This weekend’s matchup in Baton Rouge featuring LSU and Alabama is a playoff eliminator. I don’t feel either can beat Oregon on a neutral field. We saw Southern California beat LSU in Week 1, but the Tigers have gotten stronger on both sides of the ball since then. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier leads the SEC in pass completions and attempts. Against Power 4 teams that are in the Top 50 in run defense, LSU has averaged 102.5 yards per game at 3.7 yards per carry. That plays into Oregon’s hands because they have the No. 17 pass defense and the ability to matchup against LSU’s wide receivers.
If Alabama were to win in Baton Rouge, is this a team we can trust under Kalen DeBoer? I still feel Alabama is one of the most undisciplined teams in the nation at 8.6 penalties per game for 79 yards while Oregon is one of the least penalized teams averaging less than half the penalties and yardage as Alabama. Lastly, is quarterback Jalen Milroe doing too much? I feel DeBoer wants Milroe to be more like Michael Penix Jr. To me, Milroe isn’t in Penix’s league. Couple that with the fact that no running back had cracked 50 yards until Justice Haynes had 79 against Missouri.
Tennessee presents a bigger challenge for Oregon with a defense that is in the Top 5 at 12.4 points per game along with the nation’s best third-down defense at 24.3%. Offensively, the Volunteers are as balanced as any in the country with one of the best backs in junior Dylan Sampson who has 19 rushing touchdowns which is second in the nation. Tennessee has averaged 234.5 rushing yards per game this season and has outrushed every opponent and has had at least 143 yards in every game. Oregon’s run defense has surrendered 121.4 yards per game this season.
If Tennessee gets its ground game going, it will be even more difficult for Oregon. Under Josh Heupel, the Vols have rushed for over 200 yards in a game 27 times and have a 25-2 record – winning the last 19 games in a row. Has Tennessee been dominant at all this season especially in SEC play? I still feel first-year starter at quarterback Nico Iamaleava is still raw, but will be special one day.
What Tennessee does well is limit big plays. They’re No. 2 in the nation, allowing only five plays of 30 yards or more. Texas is No. 1 at allowing only four plays of 30 yards or more.
The Longhorns’ schedule has been in question, with Michigan being the marquee out of conference opponent. The Wolverines sit at 5-4 and are fighting for bowl eligibility.
Any team that has had a pulse against Texas has either beaten them – in the case of Georgia – or pushed them to the brink like Vanderbilt. With Florida giving Billy Napier a new lease on life for another season, Florida won’t be an easy out. Arkansas has beaten Tennessee this season, Kentucky isn’t an easy out, and the Longhorns have to visit Kyle Field to face Texas A&M. It’s a schedule where Texas might lose a game – maybe even two if they aren’t careful.
What hurts Oregon in a matchup against Texas is the Longhorns’ elite pass defense. With Oregon down Johnson at wideout, they have to prove they can replace him. Texas has the No. 1 pass defense (135.8 yards per game), No. 1 passing efficiency defense (90.77), and No. 1 in total defense (241.2). It would take an Oregon team at 100% to beat Texas.
Oregon is the class of the Big Ten, there is no doubt of that. Even if they lose a rematch against Ohio State in a potential Big Ten Championship Game, they have proven that they can play with anyone in the league. The SEC isn’t in a dominant phase and there seems to be parity in the league, but Texas and Georgia are the teams that would give Oregon fits. I don’t feel anyone in the SEC can conquer Oregon.
