By Kyle Golik
NFL Hall of Famer Al Davis once said about coaches that they have a shelf life around 10 years. If a coach did not win or command the respect of the locker room in that timeframe, he was a goner. If a coach did win at some point, he felt players might become tone deaf. Fortunately for Penn State’s James Franklin, he doesn’t have to worry about tenured veterans tuning out his message. In a similar vein, though, recruits might typecast Franklin as a coach who cannot come through in the big moments.
Franklin has achieved a lot at Penn State, guiding the Nittany Lions to the 2016 Big Ten Championship, participating in five New Year’s Six bowls, and resurrecting a program ravaged by sanctions from the Jerry Sandusky fallout. As he approaches his 11th season in Happy Valley, the question becomes: What can Penn State be under Franklin? Some of Franklin’s most ardent supporters remind Nittany Nation it took Joe Paterno 17 seasons to win his first national championship.
While fair to point out, the context of Paterno’s career leading up to his first national championship included three undefeated seasons. His teams were also in an all-time classic in the 1979 Sugar Bowl where the Nittany Lions got denied at the goal line by the Crimson Tide and two close encounters in 1977 and 1981 where injuries and bad bounces cost them key games that could have opened the door.
LaVar Arrington, one of Paterno’s prized pupils, has been a staunch supporter of Franklin and even defended him after another tough Michigan loss last season.
“What I think about is — Joe (Paterno) didn’t beat Michigan or Ohio State either! I didn’t get a win against (Michigan). Not one! We didn’t beat Michigan. So stop comparing (James Franklin) to Joe. That’s the first thing,” said Arrington following Penn State’s 24-15 defeat last season, who played in three of what would be nine consecutive defeats to Michigan between 1997 and 2007 for the Nittany Lions.
With all due respect to Arrington and his Hall of Fame resume, your shortcomings should not be a justification of the state of the program now. With the major investments fans and boosters are contributing through donations and NIL deals, even the university putting $700 million to upgrade Beaver Stadium, the hoped return on investment is major wins and championships. Franklin simply hasn’t fulfilled to the degree that he should.
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During Franklin’s tenure at Penn State he has a 3-17 record in matchups against Top 10 opponents. This includes a disastrous ten-game stretch in those matchups where the Nittany Lions are 0-10, averaging only 18.5 points per game on offense while surrendering 31.4 points per game on defense.
With the Big Ten expanding adding in Southern California, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington, Penn State has been considered by many the consensus No. 3 Big Ten program behind Michigan and Ohio State (who have beaten Penn State in 11 of the last 14 matchups since 2017). Franklin and the program now have to question their position with these other perennial powers joining.
Southern California has reloaded on the defensive side of the ball and Lincoln Riley consistently has elite quarterbacks and potent offenses. Oregon has been consistent since Mario Cristobal took over for Willie Taggart, even defeating Ohio State in Columbus in 2021 – something Penn State hasn’t done since 2008. Cristobal’s successor Dan Lanning seems to have Oregon threatening for its first College Football Playoff berth since 2014. Washington may have lost Kalen DeBoer and a bevy of talent to the NFL, but was able to lure in Jedd Fisch from Arizona, who ended its 2023 season as one of the nation’s hottest teams winning seven games in a row.
Penn State alum Matt Rhule, who now coaches Nebraska, pulled a recruiting coup luring five-star quarterback Dylan Raiola to Lincoln. With the culture changing under Rhule, Nebraska seems poised to break through in 2024 or 2025. Luke Fickell should not be underestimated either at Wisconsin, especially with all the resources at his disposal.
Franklin has been in this current phase of his career where he has struggled to get Penn State elite. His defenders often boast that if there was an expanded 12-team College Football Playoff, Penn State would have made it five times. The key thing is there wasn’t. I almost feel Franklin sympathizers will move the goal post if Penn State continues to flirt with being on the outside of the College Football Playoff.
If Franklin changes his narrative, wins the key big games and makes a splash in the College Football Playoff, he has a job for life at Penn State. He knows that. The base knows that. The base knows with an expanded Big Ten and the talent Franklin has, it is time to see if he can change that narrative.
