By Kyle Golik
If you had picked Bowling Green as the week Penn State wide receiver Julian Fleming would get his first reception, you won the poll. The coveted former Ohio State wide receiver, who Penn State head coach James Franklin has lauded since his arrival, has a single reception for three yards through two games at Penn State. This isn’t to say that Fleming is the problem, or Fleming isn’t producing in other areas. For example, his downfield blocking ability has helped the backs and tight end Tyler Warren make plays.
The Penn State wide receiving unit, as a whole, hasn’t been able to get involved, Franklin has his theory for the wide receivers not being able to get better into the fold in new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki’s scheme.
“We’ve just got to get more plays on offense. We’ve got to get off the field on defense, and we’ve got to sustain drives on offense so that we can get more guys involved and more touches.”
That is one theory worth exploring.
So far through the 2024 season, Penn State has averaged 58.5 offensive plays per game, down from 71.4 plays from last season.
Overall, Penn State is on track to potentially have its fewest offensive plays per game since 2015 when the Nittany Lion offense had 63.7 per game. Through Franklin’s first decade in Happy Valley, Penn State has averaged just over 70 plays per game.
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If you compare the rest of the AP Top 10, keeping in mind many have only played cupcakes, 71.6 plays per game. This was skewed by Missouri (80.5), Tennessee (78.5), and Ole Miss (77.5). Penn State is within 10 offensive plays per game with Georgia (60.5), Ohio State (68), and Alabama (66.5).
Let’s unravel the onion one more layer to truly see if Franklin’s theory has merit, because so far it lines up.
Through the first two games, Penn State has 22 targets to its wide receivers. When you compare it to Oregon and Ohio State, who both reside in the Top 10, Penn State lags behind. Ohio State averages 26 targets per game through the first two weeks and Oregon averages 19.5 to their wide receivers. Each have had games where they had more targets than Penn State has had all year. Georgia, who has averaged roughly the same amount of offensive plays per game as Penn State, had 22 targets to their wide receivers against Clemson in Week 1.
Against West Virginia, Penn State had the two splash plays to wide receivers Trey Wallace and Omari Evans that helped give the Nittany Lions a 20-6 first-half lead. You could argue the weather delay thwarted the offensive progression Penn State wanted to do.
I can believe it, but again Penn State went in against Bowling Green and the sharps had them as nearly a five-touchdown favorite. The wide receivers had only nine total targets against Bowling Green, down from 13 against West Virginia.
From what I have seen through the first two weeks, I am not seeing the wide receivers really breakthrough. Against Bowling Green, when Penn State had an opportunity to break through on an apparent Omari Evans touchdown, the refs who missed the potential offensive pass interference against West Virginia, called it against Bowling Green.
Overall, Penn State wide receivers had three receptions for 37 yards against Bowling Green, which isn’t going to get it done in the bigger games that lie ahead for Penn State.
While Franklin may have deflected the question by saying he needs more plays, it isn’t a guarantee that is going to generate more offense. Quarterback Drew Allar is much less efficient when throwing to his receivers. He is 10 for 22 passing to them this season, completing fewer than 50%. When Allar targets tight end Tyler Warren or his running backs, Allar has one incompletion, going 14 for 15 passing.
Now that is typically how it goes because targets to the backs and tight ends are high completion passes, but to be sub 50% to wide receivers in an era where offenses are spread and the bulk of passes thrown are still high percentage passes is alarming.
Take it for what it is worth, Franklin may be right, he needs the plays to work the wide receivers in, but early signs show they aren’t maximizing the limited opportunities getting them now and that is problematic for Penn State.
