Ryan Day is going to win a national title. I know all the Ohio State haters can laugh about this, but that’s my true feeling. Why? Delve into my mind.
Great coaches are one thing, and we don’t know if Ryan Day is a great coach yet. We know he’s good but three straight losses to Michigan and a couple of playoff losses have many feeling shortchanged. After all, Day was “born on third base,” inheriting a juggernaut program from Urban Meyer, right? But even great coaches need one thing to win — amazing recruiting classes. And Day is stockpiling them.
When I got into this recruiting thing, one thing became clear to me — talent wins. From LSU to Texas to USC to Florida and then Alabama and now Georgia, elite recruiting classes over many years leads to national titles. Mack Brown compiled a few and won it all with Vince Young. Nick Saban did it at LSU once, and then his string of elite classes at Alabama led to six more titles. Pete Carroll, Urban Meyer, and Kirby Smart all did it, with Meyer having done it at Florida and Ohio State. If you recruit in the top three year after year, you will win the big one. It’s hard data.
Day hasn’t had a recruiting class ranked outside the top five in my book since he took over for Meyer. He’s not just due for a national title. He’s overdue based on my recruiting projections. As great as the coaches above were and are, they needed elite talent to win it all. Day has that and has honestly come close, losing to the eventual national champion Bulldogs in a close one in the semis in the 2022 season. He’s also lost in the semifinals to Clemson and lost in the title game to Alabama. That’s some sick competition. But those losses and the losses to Michigan have a coach with a 56-8 career record labeled as a loser.
There are many intriguing aspects to my prediction and theory. Jim Harbaugh never had a top-five recruiting class at Michigan, and he dominated Day the last three seasons and won a national title last year. Jimbo Fisher put together a No. 1 class for Texas A&M and was so disappointing that his enormous contract was bought out last season. And Lane Kiffin had a No. 1 class at USC and was fired on a tarmac. There are exceptions to every rule. And Day is the only coach I’ve ever made this prediction about who is essentially on a hot seat. If he loses to Michigan a fourth time and misses the expanded playoff, he’s likely fired. It’s either boom or bust with Day, but I’m comfortable with that.
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And there are obvious changes to college football that didn’t deter Saban, Brown, Meyer and others from success. NIL is a massive factor in recruiting and Jimbo’s NIL heavy 2023 class didn’t pan out. Portal recruiting is also a huge deal as high school isn’t the only factor in determining future success. Day has a small but elite portal class this cycle but portal players are wildcards. There are so many new factors that make the simple correlation from high school recruiting to national title success more complex.
With all that being said, the talent Day continues to amass (my class in 2025 so far, top three classes each of the previous three cycles) is bound to break through eventually. Even if it’s not this year, if he can make a playoff run and keep his employment steady, he will eventually win it all. Or, at the very least, he better.
