Heading into the 2025 season, 10 programs have been given at least +2500 odds for winning the College Football Playoff National Championship by Fox Sports. Of those 10 programs, only three have a solid, experienced starter in place. Those programs are Penn State with Drew Allar, Clemson with Cade Klubnik and LSU with Garrett Nussmeier.
What this means is that the other seven contenders have a major question at the most important position in sports. The odds have Penn State at +700, Clemson at +1000 and LSU at +1600. Below is a breakdown of the remaining seven programs in order of their odds to win it all.
Texas Longhorns +550
The time has finally come—Arch Manning is now QB1 for the Longhorns. Manning was the backup the last two seasons for Quinn Ewers. When Ewers was out for two games in 2024, Manning started. The hype for Manning has been immense, as the nephew of Peyton and Eli Manning should be. But while Manning has all of the hype and genetics to be a great college QB, he needs to prove it on the field. Texas loses its top three receivers from 2024, so things will not be easy for Manning. Head coach Steve Sarkisians’ defense is stacked and will keep Texas in just about every game. The schedule isn’t daunting, outside of the opener at Ohio State and a mid-November game at Georgia. With under 1,000 career passing yards and only nine career touchdown passes, can Arch Madness live up to the hype and bring Texas its first natty since 2005?
Interesting to note here that Julian Sayin is taking snaps from Carson Hinzman. pic.twitter.com/CjkxkZE6W5
— The Scarlet and Gray Podcast (@TheSG_Podcast) July 31, 2025
Ohio State Buckeyes +550
Fresh off the school’s fifth national championship, Ohio State will be reloading in 2025. Enter sophomore Julian Sayin. The 6-foot-1 Sayin has yet to start a collegiate game, but wait, there’s more. He loses 2,076 rushing yards from his backfield. On defense, the Buckeyes lose eight of their top 10 tacklers. But this is Ohio State, head coach Ryan Day reloads—he doesn’t rebuild. However, Sayin only attempted 12 passes in mop-up duty last season. One positive for Sayin is that his No. 1 target, sophomore Jeremiah Smith, is back. Smith is arguably the best player in college football. But the big question is, can Sayin get familiar with the college game fast enough to navigate Ohio State’s schedule? The Buckeyes’ home schedule has Texas and Penn State, while road trips include Illinois and Michigan. If Ohio State loses those four games, the reigning national champions won’t make the CFP in 2025.
Georgia Bulldogs +700
Gunner Stockton is going into his fourth season in the Georgia program. The 2025 opening game against Marshall will be his first regular season start and second of his career. The first came in last season’s CFP loss to Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl. The Bulldogs lose their top two receivers from 2024, but similar to Ohio State, the Dawgs reload. Head coach Kirby Smart’s defense will be top-tier as usual, and the same with the offensive line. There is little to no experience behind Stockton, so the redshirt junior will get every opportunity to be successful. The good news is the Dawgs ease into the schedule with home games against Marshall and Austin Peay. The toughest games, against Alabama and Texas, are both at home. A road trip to Tennessee in Week 3 may be tricky. While it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Georgia makes the CFP, how confident can the Bulldog faithful be with a QB who has only thrown 57 career passes?
Alabama Crimson Tide +1000
This appears to be a trend for two of the SEC’s top teams: a QB with zero regular season starts. Redshirt Junior Ty Simpson’s situation is even worse than Stockton’s at Georgia. Simpson has not only yet to start a collegiate game, but he has also never thrown a touchdown pass. The offensive line and receivers return a lot of production from 2024, including sophomore WR Ryan Williams. The defense is loaded and should win a few games for the Tide. The schedule starts off on the road at Florida State, which isn’t ideal for a first career start. If Simpson can’t get out of Tallahassee with a win, Bama may miss the CFP again. Road games at Georgia and the Iron Bowl are always possible losses. Home games against Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma can go against the Tide as well. Simpson may have the most pressure of any of these QBs. Will that pressure lead to losses?
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This is the year. Dante Moore has improved so much under this new offense. He's focused. He's having fun. I wouldn't be surprised if he's a dark horse for the Heisman. pic.twitter.com/SP5jS6RLsh
— B1GtimeDuck (@B1GtimeDuck) July 10, 2025
Oregon Ducks +1200
Dante Moore was a five-star recruit out of high school when he committed to UCLA. Moore started five games as a true freshman and transferred to Oregon at the end of that season. He has more experience than some of the QBs on this list, but that isn’t saying much. Moore has more than 1,600 passing yards with 11 TDs and nine INTs. Moore spent the 2024 season backing up Dillion Gabriel and learning the Oregon offensive system. This year, he loses the top rusher and the top two receivers from the 2024 squad. The defense also lost a lot of production. But head coach Dan Lanning reloaded with the transfer portal, on both sides of the ball. The only question is at the QB position—can Moore lead the Ducks back to the CFP?
Notre Dame Fighting Irish +1200
The program with the biggest question mark at the QB position has to be Notre Dame. The Irish enter fall camp with a quarterback competition between two players who have zero career starts. Barring injury, either redshirt freshman CJ Carr or sophomore Kenny Minchey will be the Irish’s QB1. The 6-foot-3 Carr seems to be the front-runner heading into fall camp. Last year’s leading rusher Jeremiyah Love and leading receiver Jaden Greathouse, are both back. Notre Dame’s schedule has 10 Power Four games, with a road trip to Miami to start. But the schedule is not difficult. The defense loses its two biggest leaders and may take a step back in 2025. A CFP push isn’t out of the question, but that’s a big ask for a QB with zero career starts.
Bryce Underwood's teammates expressed genuine awe in how the 17-year-old prodigy has carried himself since arriving at Michigan.
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) July 26, 2025
Read more on the FOX Sports App or https://t.co/eTD1EK1wxx pic.twitter.com/uQ2sM4ZXU1
Michigan Wolverines +2500
The program with the worst odds to win the national championship is Michigan. The Wolverines had major QB issues last season, leading to a record of 8-5. True freshman Bryce Underwood is projected to be the Wolverines’ starting QB when the season starts. The 6-foot-4 freshman was the No. 1 overall recruit in the 2025 class. The offense loses a lot of production, but most of that has been replaced via the transfer portal. Head coach Sherrone Moore brought in RB Justice Haynes from Alabama and WR Donovan McCulley from Indiana. The Michigan defense will be solid but will show the effects of losing a number of players to the NFL. The schedule is on the lighter side, a trip to Oklahoma and the finale against Ohio State are the toughest. Potential bumps may come at Nebraska and at USC, which could mean 8-4 and no CFP appearance. Underwood’s ability to take command of the offense will determine how well Michigan’s season will be.
