By Micheal Germanese
The Ohio State Buckeyes took home the sport’s top prize a year ago with a 34-23 win over Notre Dame in the first 12-team College Football Playoff. The win gave the Big Ten Conference back-to-back national championships for the first time since 1942. The Big Ten will be looking to make it three straight in 2025 for the first time in conference history.
The Buckeyes at +500 hold the best odds of winning the national championship in 2025. Oregon has the fourth-best odds at the +750 with Penn State at fifth with +800. Michigan rounds out the top 10 with +2500 odds tied with Ole Miss and Miami.
College football national championship odds 2025: Ohio State early favorite to repeat https://t.co/ZDoDwzm1rp
— NewarkAdvocate.com (@NewarkAdvocate) January 21, 2025
College football, on paper, plays a 12-game schedule. However, the top teams only play two to four games that determine the success of the season. The NFL spreads out the talent to balance the league, making it extremely competitive each week. In the NFL, on any given Sunday, a team could win. College football is the complete opposite.
The amount of talent that makes it to the top team gives them a massive competitive advantage. This lack of talent parody from top to bottom in the Big Ten has the top teams only facing a small number of actual competitive games out of the 12-game schedule. The 12-team playoff has made it even worse, with teams being able to lose a game or two yet still play for a national championship.
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Ohio State, Penn State, Oregon and Michigan should make up the top four teams in the Big Ten in 2025. Here are the must-win games for each Big Ten contender if they want to make it to the CFP.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Must Wins: Texas (Aug. 30), at Illinois (Oct. 11)
Ohio State comes into the season with four challenging games in 2025. The week one SEC matchup with Texas, at Illinois on Oct. 11, home to Penn State and finally on Nov. 29 at Michigan. At first glance and having lost the last four games, Michigan looks to be the must-win game in 2025. But like the 2024 result of “The Game,” it could mean nothing in the grand scheme. Buckeye fans proved after the national championship game that “The Game” isn’t above a title.
A win in week one over Texas will give Ohio State a signature win over a top five SEC team. It also gives the Buckeyes the ability to lose two conference games and still get into the playoff.
If Ohio State can take care of Texas and follow that up with a win over Illinois, there should be no reason they’re not back in the playoff again. If Ohio State gets to the Penn State game undefeated, it will take almost any meaning out of the game for Ohio State. Worst-case scenario, if Ohio State loses to both Penn State and Michigan, and finishes with two losses they are still in the playoff. There will never be a scenario that a one- or two-loss Ohio State team doesn’t make the playoff.
Penn State Nittany Lions
Must wins: Oregon (Sept. 27), at Ohio State (Nov. 1), Indiana (Nov. 8)
Penn State will face a three-game schedule in 2025, At home against Oregon, at Ohio State and against Indiana at home. The 2025 Nittany Lions are built a lot like Michigan was in 2023 and Ohio State in 2024. Michigan and Ohio State players returned to college instead of entering the NFL Draft to take care of unfinished business. Penn State looks built in the same way with Drew Allar, Nicholas Singleton, Kaytron Allen and a few other players back. Michigan and Ohio State took home the national championship and Penn State might do the same.
The biggest problem facing Penn State from making 2025 their year is James Franklin’s inability to win big games. In games when Franklin plays teams with the same or more talent ,his record is 1-15 against the top five, 4-20 against the top 10 and 15 -29 against the top 25. Franklin is 125-57 at Penn State but when you only win the games you should, then what does that record mean?
Big Game James!
Franklin is now 4-20 vs. opponents ranked in the AP Top-10 in his career.. 1-15 vs. Top-5 teams. #BigGameJames #NDvsPSU #CFBPlayoff #NCAAF pic.twitter.com/Gpwk8vhlSy
— Cʜᴜᴄᴋ ᴅᴏᴜɢʟᴀs ✪ (@ChuckDouglas_) January 10, 2025
Ohio State and Oregon are two of the top teams in the country and unfortunately for Franklin and Penn State fans, they play both. If Penn State is going to make the playoff, Franklin must do something he has shown no ability to do in previous years. If he does and takes care of the surprise team from a year ago in Indiana, Penn State will be playing in their second playoff. Franklin, with a win, would also cool the criticism for at least the remainder of 2025.
But if Franklin does what he does and loses to the Buckeyes and Ducks, there is a good chance Penn State gets left out of the CFP in 2025. If he were to lose to both it would also be the time for Penn State to make a decision moving forward. Do they want to be a contender or constantly a pretender under Franklin?
Oregon
Must Wins: at Penn State (Sept. 27), Indiana (Oct. 11)
Christmas came early for the Ducks in 2025 with one of the easiest schedules in the Big Ten. Missing from the Duck’s schedule in 2025 are Ohio State, Michigan, Illinois and Nebraska—who could be the surprise Big Ten team in 2025. Oregon, missing almost all the top teams, only plays two games of consequence in 2025, at Penn State and at home to Indiana.
Oregon finished 2024 as Big Ten champs and had the No. 1-overall seed in the CFP, but thanks to a poorly designed playoff model their reward was playing Ohio State again in the Rose Bowl. After sitting for close to a month the Ducks got embarrassed 41-21 to end their season.
With a win in either game, they Ducs should finish the season no less than 11-1 and earn a spot in the CFP. Dan Lanning’s team should also have a chance to defend the Big Ten Championship from a year ago. If Lanning gets back to the Big Ten championship game a tough decision awaits the Duck’s boss. Lanning will need to decide if it’s better to lose or win the championship game.
Michigan Wolverines
Must Wins: Oklahoma (Sept. 6), at Nebraska (Sept. 20)
Michigan fans already have the week two matchup with Oklahoma in Norman circled on the calendar. If Michigan can win in Norman and at Nebraska, the Wolverines should be heading to their fourth playoff in five years.
The Wolverines are coming off a disappointing 2024 season after going 8-5 but finished the season strong with wins over Ohio State and Alabama. Sherrone Moore uses the offseason to bring in Chip Lindsey as the new offensive coordinator to try and fix an anemic offense from a year ago.
Chip Lindsey is hoping to revamp the passing game and create a more balanced offense at Michigan. If there’s one WR who can play a role in helping that become a reality, it may be former Indiana WR Donaven McCulley, who Lindsey is “excited” about: https://t.co/98lk24PoFJ
— Maize n Brew (@MaizenBrew) March 21, 2025
Michigan will face a much more forgiving schedule in 2025. Michigan played four CFP teams a year ago in Texas, Oregon, Indiana and Ohio, State along with Illinois, who finished ranked in the top 25. This season looks to be nothing like that with the Wolverines facing one, possibly two, playoff teams.
If Michigan can get off to a hot start and get to October without a loss the playoff should be well within reach. With wins over Oklahoma and Nebraska, Michigan would only have USC and Ohio State to deal with.
Even if Michigan were to lose both games, a two-loss Michigan—like Ohio State—would find themselves in the playoff 99 percent of the time.
