By Alec Nederveld
Boise State was the perfect program to be the first Group of Five representative in the College Football Playoffs. During the BCS era, the Broncos established themselves as a model of consistency and arguably the best of the non-automatic qualifiers. While TCU and Utah also made two BCS bowls, those two programs got their chance to move into power conferences, continuing to prosper in the Pac-12 and Big 12.
The Broncos too have been a very good program, notably winning the 2014 Fiesta Bowl over Arizona and three more Mountain West Championships, but didn’t have a team close to what this 2024 team became.
This year, Boise’s success started with Ashton Jeanty, one of the best running backs in College Football history. His 2,601 rushing yards in the 2024 season was only behind Oklahoma State and NFL legend Barry Sanders in the all-time single-season rankings. Landing Jeanty, who played for Lone Star HS, in Frisco, Texas, and ended as a 247Sports four-star with Power Five offers itself was an anomaly. Keeping him in the Transfer Portal, tampering, and NIL, era is even more impressive, with many suitors and his Group of Five peers choosing that route.
Behind the Heisman runner-up, Boise has a roster that complements his skill set. QB Maddux Madsen was efficient nearly all year and finished the season with 3,018 yards and 28 total touchdowns to seven turnovers. He’s a competitor who was at his best taking advantage of defenses loading up the box and delivering the ball to open receivers like Cam Camper (Indiana’s leading receiver in 2022) and Latrell Caples.
The resume of Dirk Koetter, Boise State’s offensive coordinator is as impressive as any in the country. After 11 years as a college OC, Koetter spent three years as the Broncos head coach before jumping ship to Arizona State, spending six years in Tempe. He spent nine more years as the OC of the Jacksonville Jaguars, Atlanta Falcons, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, where he got promoted to head coach for three more seasons. Koetter spent two more years as the Falcons OC and coordinating the Broncos’ offense for the first and only time in 2024.
On the other side, defensive coordinator Erik Chinander assembled a chaotic defense, leading the country with 55 sacks. Chinander is also in his first year as Boise’s defensive coordinator but worked alongside Scott Frost from 2017-2022 in the same role at UCF and Nebraska. What Group of Five team has that experience within their coordinators?
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Head coach Spencer Danielson, who worked Chinander’s job from 2021-2023 and is also in his first full season has been fantastic as well, keeping everything together and cementing himself as a great coach. He’s developed players like Jayden Virgin-Walker and Ahmed Hassanein, with 10 and 9.5 sacks respectively. Safety Seyi Oladipo had 6.5 sacks too.
This is almost the perfect setup for a Group of Five team to make a run and have success in the playoffs. However, once the Broncos got there, they did some things very well but made very costly mistakes in other aspects of the game that could not be overcome.
In the Peach Bowl against Penn State, Boise State couldn’t overcome an early 14-0 hole and their self-imposed mistakes. The usually reliable kicker Jonah Dalmas missed two field goals. Madsen, who had only thrown one interception after September threw three. Even Jeanty had two uncharacteristic fumbles, one being recovered by Penn State.
Credit absolutely has to go towards Penn State for forcing the mistakes, but even with two turnovers and only one missed field goal, Boise State could have won. Remember, this game was 17-14 in the third quarter and only 24-14 until the Nicholas Singleton 58-yard dagger run with less than five minutes remaining. In total, Boise State outgained Penn State 412-387, giving up the second-most yards on the season in the process. The 304 passing yards from Madsen were also the most allowed by Penn State on the season.
Even if Boise State won, could the Broncos have beaten Notre Dame and Ohio State? Maybe Notre Dame, but certainly not this Ohio State team that had the most talented College Football roster we’ve seen in at least a couple of years. There’s a nearly impossible margin of error for Boise State and especially for another Group of Five teams, where it doesn’t end so well.
Some Past top Group of Five teams wouldn’t have a chance in the playoffs
One season ago, Liberty was the highest-ranked Group of Five team at #23. While the Flames were 13-0 and C-USA champions, their strength of schedule was very poor, not playing a single power-conference opponent and taking advantage of the weakest conference in the FBS. #8 Oregon ended up dominating, winning 45-6.
In the 2022 Cotton Bowl, #16 Tulane narrowly beat #10 USC 46-45 off the backs of 539 total yards and chunk plays against an Alex Grinch-led defense, overcoming a 45-30 deficit with under five minutes in the game.
Going back to the 2019 Cotton Bowl, #17 Memphis outgained #10 Penn State 542-529, but couldn’t get enough stops and fell 53-39.
Like TCU and Utah before them, the most successful Group of Five programs during the four-team playoff era, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF were all scooped up by the Big 12. Nowadays, there are just fewer programs that have the potential to go on a run.
Teams like Liberty, Tulane, and Memphis having an upset win in the playoffs feel even more improbable. They would all be the 12 seed playing on the road at the fifth seed – a much better team in a much tougher environment instead of the neutral site. For Liberty last year, that would mean playing between the hedges at Georgia.
Further, the way College Football is changing will only hurt smaller schools more. Players like Jeanty, small school superstars are unfortunately the exception, power conference schools have more money and will lure those talented players away like we saw with Mensah and Washington State’s John Mateer.
Like the offseason before the 2024 season, there is no slam-dunk top 15 or even top 25 Group of Five team. The best is expected to be UNLV, who hired Dan Mullen to replace Barry Odom, the new Purdue Head Coach. Other key pieces like OC Brennan Marion, QB Hajj-Malik Williams, WR Ricky White, and LB Jackson Woodard are also gone.
The Rebels were in the Top 25 for most of 2024, beating Houston, Kansas, and California in the LA Bowl. Their only losses were to Boise State (twice) and Syracuse in Overtime, who finished as the #20 team. The Rebels have a good roster and will have an experienced quarterback in either Michigan’s Alex Orji or Virginia’s Anthony Coladnrea, but they still lack a superstar like Jeanty and the support around him.
Sure, it’s not impossible for another team – with or without recent success to win a playoff game, but it just becomes more unlikely. Everything in college football works against the little guy and even the best of the Group of Five will have trouble to even win one playoff game.
