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Chadwell, Kiffin, Deion, and More: Breaking Down the Florida Head Coaching Odds

Breaking down the odds for Florida’s next head coach: Chadwell, Kiffin & more!

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Florida Gators head coach Billy Napier on the sidelines late in the game. The annual Florida vs Georgia football game at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville
Florida Gators head coach Billy Napier on the sidelines late in the game. The annual Florida vs Georgia football game at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville

By: Mike Huesmann

The inevitable firing of Billy Napier is in full swing now. Odds makers have devised betting odds on who the next head coach will be. I do believe a road loss to the underwhelming Mississippi State Bulldogs this weekend could be the end for Napier. Presented below are the odds on who the next coach will be followed by my breakdown of said odds.

Jamey Chadwell is a fantastic coach who should already be a P4 head coach. His success at the FCS level, Coastal Carolina, and Liberty is unimpeachable. He is one of the best X’s and O’s guys in the game. That being said, I do not believe he’ll be the guy. I’d love the hire for Florida, and anyone, but I do not believe Florida hires a G5 head coach. Teams rarely repeat a mistake they’ve recently made, and hiring Chadwell would feel like doing just that, as Napier was a similar hire.

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Lane Kiffin was, and still is, one of my top picks for the job. That said, the buzz around him has quieted in recent days. Florida will definitely make a strong push and offer plenty of money, but he’s already making a lot. Florida will have to convince him of something more—that they are the program he can elevate to a national level in a way that Ole Miss can’t. I’m not sure they can.

Deion Sanders as the third favorite is perplexing to me, like much surrounding him. His ability to build a roster and get talent is top quality, but his ability to win games has been below average. If Deion can get to 8 wins this year, I think he has a chance at a significantly better job, but I don’t know if they do that this year in Boulder. His polarity and poor offensive line play will be used against him. While his marketability helps, it only goes so far in a place where winning is paramount.

Eli Drinkwitz would probably be the favorite if I were the one making the odds today. Alas, I am not and those making this list are well informed. He has won in the conference, could be had, and there are very few negatives surrounding him. He feels like a relatively safe hire that everyone could, at the least, get behind.

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Brent Key is an interesting name on the list and could be in the mix if a few things happen. First, Georgia Tech needs to win plenty of games this year. The loss to Syracuse wasn’t great, but I expect some success in ACC play. The next thing that needs to happen is other candidates turning down the job. Key has done some good things, but I would be surprised if he ends up being the choice. If he does get the job, it may have a consolation feel to it.

The Rest: Brian Schottenheimer has football in his blood, is a Gator alumnus, and is currently the offensive coordinator for the Dallas Cowboys. However, he has never been a head coach at any level, which I think makes him an unlikely candidate for the job. Glenn Schumann has done wonders as Georgia’s defensive coordinator, and Florida will see what Dan Lanning, who has a nearly identical background, has done for Oregon. At these odds, I think Schumann is worth the wager. He is a serious candidate for the job, provided his lack of head coaching experience doesn’t disqualify him.

Chris Klieman has had success at both North Dakota State and Kansas State. His brand of tough, trench-based play will resonate with a fan base that feels the current Gators are the antithesis of that. Matt Rhule has won everywhere and looks poised to build something special at Nebraska. I don’t know if he leaves this early in his time in Lincoln. Both Klieman and Rhule would be good hires almost anywhere. Josh Heupel isn’t leaving Knoxville for Gainesville. Almost nothing about that move would make sense to me. Florida is a better job than most people think, but Heupel is also in a pretty good spot right now.

Brent Venables as the next Gator head coach would be a shock. He’s had one good year and one bad year as the head coach of a blue blood program. I think 2024, his first year in the SEC, will see him slightly above .500, which is hardly the success rate Florida will want. Lance Leipold is another coach no one could fault Florida for hiring. What he’s done at Kansas is remarkable. He won’t be Florida’s first choice, but like Key, he could find himself in the mix if a few candidates turn the Gators down. 

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