By Rock Westfall
Several coaches are hanging by a thread as prominent ex-coaches have little incentive to return.
The 2023 Coaching Carousel Spinning at Full Speed
Recently, the Coaching Carousel has examined the trials and tribulations of such current coaches as Lincoln Riley (USC), Chip Kelly (UCLA), and Sam Pittman (Arkansas). Today, we look at other coaches who do not have dates with the firing squad just yet but could one year from now. Also, we examine two prominent names that often come up, almost always without reality-based justification.
PJ Fleck (Minnesota), Bret Bielema (Illinois), and Dave Aranda (Baylor) will be under intense pressure in 2024. Meanwhile, Urban Meyer and Dan Mullen are rumored for almost all vacancies, usually for the clickbait, which brings up the topic of why any coach living large on a big buyout would return to the insane grind that college football has become.
https://twitter.com/will_whitson2/status/1729621567632445832
The Sinking Boat of PJ Fleck
The Minnesota Golden Gophers finished 5-7 but are likely to go bowling because of strong academic performances and the lack of qualified teams to fill slots. But many Golden Gopher fans are so tired of head coach PJ Fleck that they are using that bowl back-in as more fuel for the fire against him.
Since his arrival, Fleck has been a lightning rod. He annoys many with his carnival barking and sloganeering ways. Yet he has also impressed with an overall solid record (49-34) and a season for the ages in 2019. He is more substantive than what meets the eye (and ears).
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Fleck was coming off 9-4 seasons in 2021 and 2022. To his credit, Fleck took advantage of the extra COVID year of eligibility for superstar marquee men Tanner Morgan (QB) and Mohamed Ibrahim (RB), along with an outstanding offensive line and competent defense. But this year, the fiddler had to be paid.
Minnesota suffered through a rebuilding season with inexperienced players and was decimated by injuries. Fleck admits nobody on the outside cares about the injuries, and he is correct, legitimate as the issue is. Closer to the truth is Fleck’s belief that Minnesota must step up mightily in NIL or face competitive oblivion.
In 2019, before NIL and when college football was relatively “even,” Minnesota went 11-2 and beat Auburn in the Outback Bowl for its greatest season since 1961. At that moment, Fleck punched through the program’s gravity. And those aforementioned 9-4 seasons showed Minnesota as a quality program.
However, this year brought absurd losses that stunned fans. Minnesota blew a 31-10 4th quarter lead at Northwestern in a 37-34 loss. They led Illinois 26-21 late in the 4th quarter but lost 27-26. And then they were routed in a ridiculous 49-30 loss at a bad Purdue team.
Minnesota remained close despite the injuries and inexperience. On the other hand, Fleck lost three winnable games against mediocre programs.
After a season-ending loss to Wisconsin, Fleck said QB Athan Kaliakmanis was “inconsistent.” While true, the comment came off as throwing his player under the bus. In response, Kaliakmanis entered the transfer portal on Tuesday. Perhaps it won’t make a difference for an offense ranked 125th in the country. But it’s a bad look on the outside.
Fleck is running out of allies and slogans. Although Athletic Director Mark Coyle still fully backs him for now, fans and donors are tuning out. And with the end of Big Ten divisional play Minnesota faces an even tougher season ahead in 2024 without an experienced QB.
PJ Fleck only recruits academically successful players because that's the only way he can get to a Bowl Game pic.twitter.com/RvhHmOOjam
— Robin Adams (@theotherRobin19) November 26, 2023
Bret Bielema’s Big Step Back
Like Fleck, Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema is a polarizing figure, though he is popular with the media. Last year, Bielema went 8-5, including 5-4 in the Big Ten. But as previous coach Lovie Smith’s recruits leave the program, the wins are going with them.
The Fighting Illini (5-7, 3-6) stumbled out of the gate with four losses in their first six games and weren’t good enough to dig out of the hole. Illinois ranked 84th for scoring offense and 95th for points allowed. Indeed, there was no there, there.
Now Bielema faces the prospect of having to recruit and hit the transfer portal hard. Such activities were never considered his strengths. And there is the perception that his early Illinois success was built on Lovie Smith’s recruits.
Since leaving the then-stable Wisconsin program, Bielema has shown wild inconsistency at Arkansas and Illinois. As is the case with Fleck and Minnesota, Illinois will not be able to hide in a putrid Big Ten West Division anymore. The upcoming Big Ten season brings the addition of USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington to make it impossible to find refuge or comfort.
Bret Bielema is on the clock.
https://twitter.com/IlliniFB/status/1728527086699032634
Aranda’s Last Stand in Bear Market
Two years ago, Baylor head coach Dave Aranda was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. Aranda led Baylor to the 2021 Big 12 championship, and in the fertile recruiting area of Texas, the sky seemed the limit. But Baylor slipped to 6-7 in 2022 and then crashed to 3-9 in 2023. Had Aranda not been so respected by the Baylor administration, he would have been shown the door.
The one advantage Aranda has over Fleck and Bielema is a less competitive Big 12 Conference and a vastly richer recruiting footprint. Thus, Baylor has the opportunity for a quick improvement. But can Aranda deliver? He has one last chance to show that he can.
Dave Aranda after the 34-31 loss to WVU:
“This year is not acceptable, and it starts with me.” pic.twitter.com/1LooMszTvx— Cam Stuart (@realcamstuart) November 26, 2023
Why Would Urban Meyer Dare Return to the Insane Grind?
This week, the transfer portal was unleashed. Quality players abound, including Kansas State QB Will Howard. So, we have the combination of recruiting, the 2023 coaching carousel, the championship games, bowl preparation, and the portal all at once. And you see why college coaches pine for more structured and stable NFL gigs or, if possible, the links and the beaches.
Urban Meyer has been mentioned as a candidate for numerous jobs since his brief NFL tenure ended in humiliating and scandalous failure. Now Meyer is living the life as a FOX Sports analyst. He looks relaxed and content to count his millions and spend time on family and business interests, which is why the prospect of him taking a job at Michigan State was absurd on its face.
If Meyer returns, it will be to a turn-key national championship-type program. If Lincoln Riley fails, USC makes the most sense. Meyer’s recruiting cache and dominant record at Florida and Ohio State would make him a natural for the Trojans.
But does Meyer still have the fire and desire for a sport that is out of control with a 24/7/365 grind?
Watching Charles Woodson celebrate in Urban Meyer’s face never gets old 〽️
— JD 〽️ (@MGoJDBlue) November 26, 2023
Dan is not Mullen Mid-Level Program Openings
Over the past week, former Mississippi State and Florida coach Dan Mullen was mentioned as a potential candidate for the Syracuse job. That was never going to happen.
Mullen is living large as an ESPN TV analyst and secure with his hefty 2021 buyout from Florida. He is an addicted golfer and loves watching his kids play sports while hanging with his wife. Mullen is living the life and is not interested in returning to the grind.
Still, Mullen continues to look better each hour that Florida flounders under Billy Napier. It was absurd that Mullen was fired less than one season after nearly beating Alabama in the SEC championship game. The Gators would likely be in a better spot had he been allowed to work his way through one bad campaign.
And if Mullen did hop on the coaching carousel, it would not be at a place like Syracuse. Syracuse is nowhere near committed to serious championship football. They have a small market budget and aspire to win seven games. Mullen isn’t giving up the good life for that- nobody with any sanity would.
Like his old Florida boss Urban Meyer, the only potential of Dan Mullen returning would be at a turn-key natty-type program. And why not? Life is too good for him now to bash his head against a wall at lesser programs.
Dan Mullen met with Syracuse's AD on Wednesday according to @TommySladek
Sorry @BFW pic.twitter.com/o6GDGMcdup
— Unnecessary Roughness (@UnnecRoughness) November 24, 2023
