by Kyle Golik
When Southern California head coach Lincoln Riley was at Oklahoma, he was “Mr. November,” guiding the Sooners to a 17-1 record in five seasons.
Crosstown rival UCLA secured the Victory Bell in a 38-20 victory this past Saturday and gave Riley his first three-game losing streak in his head coaching career, with his record in the month of November at Southern California dropped to 4-6.
“Just extremely disappointing to finish this way with obviously how well we started the season. I know our guys are disappointed, coaches are disappointed, I’m disappointed, I know our fans are disappointed, and they should be. There’s no excuses,” Riley said following the UCLA defeat, his fifth loss in six games after starting the season 6-0 and ranked in the Top 5.
“It’s below what we expect here. It’s below the standard. I’ve got to do a much better job. I own all of that, and I’m going to fight my ass off in every single way to make sure this thing gets to where it’s supposed to be.”
— USC Head Coach Lincoln Riley
USC coach Lincoln Riley had never lost more than 3 games in a seasons at Oklahoma.
At Oklahoma, Riley was 17-1 in November.
At USC, Riley is 4-3 in November and 0-for-3 this November.
— RJ Young (@RJ_Young) November 18, 2023
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Great Expectations
Where Southern California was supposed to be was vying for their first College Football Playoff berth, claim the final Pac-12 Championship, and potentially have reigning Heisman Trophy winner quarterback Caleb Williams be the first repeat winner since Ohio State running back Archie Griffin.
Williams held up his end of the bargain, finishing in the Top 10 in every major quarterback metric that led the potent Trojans offense that was the No. 3 scoring offense at 41.8 points per game and 469.7 yards of total offense.
It was arguably the worst Southern California defense in the history of the school that cost not only Williams an opportunity to repeat as Heisman Trophy winner but was the main reason the primary objectives of playing for a Pac-12 Championship and College Football Playoff berth weren’t reached. The defense surrendered 34.9 points per game, ranking 124th in the nation.
The often scrutinized defensive coordinator Alex Grinch was relieved of his duties following the Trojans’ 52-42 loss to Washington, where they also surrendered 572 yards of total offense to the Huskies. Riley’s inability to motivate Grinch to improve the defense may have wasted Williams’ career, as he is the first prized quarterback under Riley not to make either the College Football Playoff or win a conference championship.
When Riley was asked about the potential of Williams’ final game if he chooses to opt for the NFL next season, “He’s done a lot, like a lot of these guys have here. He came here and took a chance on this place and took a chance on being a part of restarting this program and getting it going, and he’s obviously been a good player for us, a really good leader for us. Like a lot of guys have in that locker room, so he’s a special player, special competitor, and obviously we’ll see where it goes from here.”
Remember when I told you that Alex Grinch isn’t the problem https://t.co/F5RLAGVEkf
— DuckZone503 (@DuckZone503) November 19, 2023
Riley enters uncharted waters as Southern California will enter Big Ten play. The Trojans, in their last 14 games, are 7-7. “We’ve already made one pretty big change, so you go back and look at everything, and you do it whether you’re 7-5 or whether you’re 10-2. You do that all the time. That’s a constant here. The reality is there’s going to be things to fix. Like I’ve said a few times, you go change three plays this year. We probably won three more games. And had we made those plays, there were still the issues that were there that had to improve were still going to be there. So we’ve got to continue to do a better job of growing in every area. We knew this was going to be a climb. We knew that was what we signed up for, like I told you guys, and we’ve got to keep climbing. Everybody wants the clean, smooth road to the top, and that’s for the movies, man. The road to the top is jagged, and it’s going to take its different twists and turns, especially coming from where this was, but we’ve got to stay together as a program, we’ve got to stay together as a fan base, we’ve got to stay together as a university. Like, this is the tough times that you push through for the great things on the other side of it. Most people, if you’re willing to push through it, you get to those opportunities. And ours are coming.”
Changes Needed on Defense
The news out of Troy is that the Trojans expect to fill the defensive coordinator vacancy by the end of the week, with former Wisconsin defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard and former Florida and Mississippi State defensive coordinator Geoff Collins as lead candidates.
Whether it is Leonhard, Collins, or someone else, they need to have a vision for a defensive program and the ability to recruit high-end defensive talent, something I had outlined previously in Riley’s coaching woes.
The first and most important thing Lincoln needs to address are the lines. Will get absolutely bullied in the Big 10 next year if there aren’t improvements ….drastic ones!
— Matt Leinart (@MattLeinartQB) November 18, 2023
Former Southern California Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback and FOX analyst Matt Leinart has been vocal about the poor play of the Trojans this season, stating on Twitter the first thing Riley needs to address is the offensive and defensive lines.
Murky Future
Riley is already behind Clay Helton‘s pace during his first two full seasons at Southern California, where Helton won 21 of 27 games, a Pac-12 Championship, and two New Year’s Six bowl berths with a Rose Bowl win. He needs to evaluate every aspect of his program. With heavy use of the transfer portal, the question of a Southern Cal culture is a fair one. Riley feels he has a good foundation, but there is still work to be done.
There is no guarantee former five-star quarterback Malachi Nelson will play at the same level as former Riley pupils. Not being able to maximize the time Riley had with Caleb Williams is extremely disappointing. The Trojans are producing mediocre results; they need to find a defensive identity and a leader of the defense, and the Big Ten move is upon the Trojans.
If Riley wants to be successful and not a coaching bust, how he executes this pivotal transition period is paramount. Riley’s offenses will always be potent, but whoever coaches the defense and develops defense, the offensive lineman that allows Riley’s playmakers to execute his offense to the fullest is important.
Regardless of Williams’ intent to return or go to the NFL, Riley has to figure it out. This is the first major obstacle in his career.
With no luxury of the Oklahoma infrastructure that helped Riley dart to a 55-10 record in his transition from Hall of Fame coach Bob Stoops, Riley doesn’t have the same luxury.
For better or for worse, the Trojans will be in the image of Riley. It is only a matter of time before his brand of football is successful — or falls completely flat.
