By Kyle Golik and Scott Salomon
Scott Salomon:
It is well-known that I tend to take the unpopular position on most things. I have said in this space that Coach Prime would fail at Colorado. I then said that Brian Kelly would have his fall from grace at LSU this season as they are not as good as advertised. Colorado fans and LSU fans have come out in droves to tell me that I was wrong.
Buckle up. Here’s the deal. Caleb Williams will not repeat as the 2023 Heisman winner.
Williams is not going to reproduce the ostentatious and gaudy numbers that he posted last season. In 2022, he threw the ball around the yard for 4,537 yards, 42 touchdowns, not including the 10 that he added with his legs.
Buckeye Fans, your beloved Archie Griffin will remain as the only player to win the award two years in a row.
Kyle Golik:
Let me preface my defense by acknowledging that the task of repeating is nearly impossible, let alone winning multiple Heisman Trophies.
Still, the Buckeye faithful shouldn’t be popping champagne bottles just yet.
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Caleb Williams is still the best quarterback in the country.
This is meant to be no disrespect to other challengers like Drake Maye from North Carolina, Michael Penix Jr. from Washington, Jordan Travis from Florida State, Bo Nix from Oregon, or Jayden Daniels from LSU, but none of them are as polished as a passer as Williams.
The critics will point out that Daniels led the nation with an 83% catchable pass rate, or Maye led the nation with 45 big-time throws (according to PFF). Williams possesses the talent to do all this with an equal ability.
Salomon: I’m not even convinced he’s the best quarterback in his own conference. Michael Penix Jr. will prove to be the best signal caller in the Pac-12 this fall.
Penix, Jr. wants to show that he is the best quarterback in the Pac-12. At the 2023 Pac-12 Conference Media Day, he said his concentration is on being the best player he can be and helping Washington win more games than they won last season. They want to compete for the entire enchilada.
Penix drove the Huskies to an 11-2 record last season, and he returns seven starters on an offensive team that was ranked number two in total offense at 516 yards per game. The Huskies were number one in passing offense, averaging 369 yards per game.
“Yeah, for me, I always keep the main thing the main thing. I always make sure that I’m putting my team first, I’m doing whatever I can to help my team win football games,” Penix, Jr. said. “All the outside noise, if it’s good or bad, I never get too high or too low in moments like that. I always stay levelheaded.”
Golik: Still, the USC offense is entirely built around Williams and tailored to what he does best. It’s true that I have been critical of Southern Cal’s Lincoln Riley about his shortcomings as a coach, but that doesn’t take away from the fact that his offenses prioritize the QB above all else.
In Riley’s six seasons as a head coach, the quarterbacks have averaged 3,967 yards passing, completing 68.8% of their passes and throwing 36 touchdowns a season.
This isn’t going to slow down this season. In fact, I’d argue that’s the main reason he’ll be able to repeat. His ability to continue to grow in his third year at the helm will be the reason for the Trojans’ ultimate success.
Salomon: The problem with that is that he’s playing with a huge influx of new players with whom he has zero chemistry.
Williams is going to huddle up with many new players who were not at Southern California last season. For example, South Carolina transfer MarShawn Lloyd is currently the number one tailback on the depth chart. Lloyd would take over for last year’s starter Austin Jones, who was a good blocker and ran for 705 yards and five touchdowns. Jones could be bench-bound.
At the aforementioned media availability at Pac-12 Media Days, Williams was asked about losing players like first-round pick, all-everything Wide Receiver Jordan Addison to the NFL.
”Team-wise, offense-wise, O-linemen, wide receivers, running backs, tight ends, we’ve all gotten a lot faster, stronger in that sense of the weight room,” Williams said. “On-the-field stuff. We got a lot of explosive guys, whether it’s the new guys coming in with Deuce (Robinson), with Ja’Kobi Lane, Dorian Singer, MarShawn Lloyd. We got a bunch of new O-linemen, Jarrett, E-man. We got Mike, Big Tarq. We got a bunch of guys, real-deal guys, that have come this year that is going to make us a lot better offensively.”
Golik: You could say he did the same thing last year. And I will grant that the team is still lacking on defense. What ultimately makes up for that is Williams.
With a favorable schedule, Williams will be able to beat up on the opposition and put up gaudy numbers once again. NFL scouts will continue to tout him, and we will find the Trojans in the college football playoff for the first time.
Salomon: I wouldn’t be so fast to call the schedule easy. To me, the Heisman will be decided on October 14, when the Trojans travel to South Bend.
Williams will struggle against Notre Dame. He does not have his weapons, and Notre Dame always plays USC tough at home with their ball-hawking defense. Notre Dame also has their own quarterback who will be mentioned in Heisman talk: Sam Hartman. Hartman did not transfer from Wake Forest to play second fiddle in his home stadium. This will be a nationally televised game, and you can look for Hartman to out-duel Williams in a shootout.
“He’s everything that’s been written about him,” said new Fighting Irish offensive coordinator Gerad Parker to Athlon Sports. “He’s been in the lights and has made a lot of throws under duress.”
Golik: The flip side of that is that Southern Cal takes on their rivals at the perfect time in the schedule. Following their annual tilt with the Irish, they’ve got a slate of games that, while tough, can cement him with our old pal Archie.
The Heisman Trophy usually gets decided early in November. And in that timeframe, he gets the opportunity to play in back-to-back weeks against Penix Jr. and Washington at home on November 4, then the following week a road game on November 11 at Autzen Stadium against Bo Nix and Oregon.
Last season, Southern Cal and Williams missed both Oregon and Washington in league play. And while both teams have elite offenses, last season both struggled against elite quarterbacks like Williams.
Oregon played nine opponents who had Top 50 passing offenses, and those passing games faced little to no resistance in those games. The Ducks passing defense allowed an average of 303 passing yards in each of those games and let opposing quarterbacks complete 66.7% of their passes.
Washington, against seven Top 50 passing offenses, did not fare any better. Teams completed 68.1% of their passes against Washington and averaged while still allowing 303 passing yards per game.
And Caleb Williams is a much better talent than any quarterback that those teams faced last year.
I feel this not only enhances Williams’ chances to repeat but also serves as “knockout rounds” of Nix and Penix Jr’s Heisman chances. When Williams does that, Archie Griffin will have to make room at the table for another two-time Heisman Trophy winner.
Salomon: I’ll still take the field. But let the debate begin…
