When the announcement came over a year ago that Southern Cal and UCLA were going to join the Big Ten, my immediate reaction after the shock of that seismic move was that it would be a matter of time that Oregon and Washington would be in the conference.
From all aspects, it gives West Coast anchors of Southern Cal and UCLA to the conference. Now, they own the Pacific Rim and add impressive markets to the portfolio in Portland and Seattle. Add in the academic and athletic prestige of these schools, and it was fait accompli.
I did not expect this to accelerate so soon, and a number of factors led to that acceleration, but here we are 18 teams in the Big Ten.
Now what is next for the Big Ten?
#1: Schedule Makers Need to Redo the 2024 Schedule and Beyond
I am willing to bet the only folks out of the Rosemont headquarters not popping the champagne are the schedule makers.
Having to redo schedules is a giant pain point, and finding a proper balance will be key.
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I also have to assume that Oregon and Washington will be a protected game on the schedule, you can read about that rivalry right here, which I wrote about last season. Would the conference try to mix UCLA and Southern Cal into a protected game or integrate them with the Midwestern teams?
Then does the Big Ten try to add a “Big Ten After Dark” now to the slate? Who will be subject to those games? Would it be fair to send Rutgers or Maryland all the way to play a 10:00 PM EST game? And conversely, what about West Coast teams in a Big Noon Kickoff on the East Coast? Oregon and Ohio State had a Big Noon Kickoff game in 2021, I think analyzing that is a good spot to maximize their exposure.
Schedule makers have a lot of questions to answer over the next several weeks.
#2: The SEC’s Response
If you think the SEC is going to not react, you’ve got another thing coming.
I firmly believe what Commissioner Greg Sankey said at 2023 SEC Media Days: that the conference is primarily focused on onboarding Texas and Oklahoma into the conference.
For those that may not fully get what that means, the SEC is trying to maximize the new arrivals and strategically place them in key spots. Look for promo materials and branding initiatives to hype their arrivals. On the inside, there is a lot of SEC Policy that goes into this and standards that both programs are going through during this very hectic transition period.
I also believe what Paul Finebaum said and other SEC Insiders that the conference has eyes on two key assets: Notre Dame and North Carolina.
Sankey is going to monitor the Florida State situation. I think we are several years from FSU cracking the ACC Grant of Rights clause, which will essentially take paying an absurd amount of money to the ACC in exchange for their freedom to leave.
I think the conference is resolute in maintaining its regional brands.
At the moment, in my opinion, the football revenue vertical is close to being exhausted. There is wiggle room to grow. So how many brands remaining in the ACC really shift that needle? Florida State, and Clemson do to a degree, but they are in very small markets that the SEC already owns. Miami has brand cache and a Top 20 market but hasn’t really done much worth writing about in football in two decades.
Basketball is the last revenue-generating sport, and the SEC does not want the Big Ten to have the likes of UCLA, Oregon, Indiana, Michigan State, Michigan, Maryland, North Carolina, and Duke in their rival conference.
With the Raleigh-Durham TV market in the Top 25, the brand values of Tar Heels and Blue Devils in basketball, and the fact that it would add the state of North Carolina (the 9th most populous state in the union), the addition of the tobacco road rivals would be a boon for the SEC.
I expect if Florida State breaks free, Sankey focuses his attention on getting UNC and Duke out of the ACC before even looking at Clemson and Florida State – it makes business sense to do that.
#3: Florida State’s Future
Florida State made no bones about it in their recent Board of Trustees meeting; they aren’t happy, they want more money, and if they don’t get that money they will leave.
Their defiant posture towards the ACC and how far they are willing to go. It is one thing to air and say you aren’t happy; it is another to fully act on it.
Florida State has already begun to push that envelope with news of the school investigating a potential partnership with JPMorgan Chase & Sixth Street, a private equity firm, to raise the necessary capital to leave the ACC.
Should the Seminole brass continue to pursue this track, they are going to leave a blueprint of how to leave, will others want to follow is a question I cannot answer.
One thing to keep an eye on is the school’s relationship with their broadcast partners. TV networks like FOX and ESPN have significant influence on the expansion carousel. With ESPN being a partner with both the ACC and SEC, this is where it gets dicey.
ESPN has to balance the needs and wants for two of its partners and the network does have significant investment into both.
If they meddle too much the wrong way, Florida State will be in the Big Ten.
If they keep a centered posture in this rift, when Florida State breaks free, it could push the Seminoles toward the SEC.
Another factor in play will be timing when Florida State breaks away from the ACC, the more immediate, I feel it may be a “shotgun” wedding for the SEC kind of like how Oregon and Washington just happened for the Big Ten.
What to watch for is when that happens are key Big Ten targets.
North Carolina is as much a priority to the Big Ten as the SEC. Again for the same reasons I mentioned above. I think either league if it looks to add North Carolina, you have to add Duke. I cannot and I would hate to see both North Carolina and Duke in different conferences.
The other major targets are Virginia, Clemson, Georgia Tech and Miami.
Virginia caps the DMV (DC, Maryland, Virginia) market and brings prestigious academics, excellent athletics especially in basketball, and likely has to bring Virginia Tech with them as well.
Clemson and Miami have both invested a lot in their academic portfolios, especially Miami becoming an AAU school
Georgia Tech is the Big Ten’s Notre Dame for the SEC, you add in a very prestigious academic school, in a great market in Atlanta, and the key word is the Big Ten flag flies in the unofficial capital of the SEC.
#4: Stanford & Notre Dame
Two interesting targets that the Big Ten will pursue during this process are Stanford and Notre Dame.
Stanford, I feel, is in a holding pattern. I think the Big Ten needs time until their contract renews to see what the money will look like to add more teams and see what happens with potential ACC targets.
With news of the Pac-12’s viability not known as of this writing, I expect the conference to fold or merge with another conference – most likely the Mountain West.
I think Stanford will become Independent in all sports until a Big Ten invite is extended.
Notre Dame will never join a conference unless it absolutely has to. It played as an ACC member in 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic gave them no other option to.
It will either join the SEC or Big Ten, to me, when a few factors happen. They will probably end up with no guaranteed spot in an expanded College Football Playoff and their opponents have likely have no room to put Notre Dame on the schedule with conference expansion. But I think the real reason Notre Dame will eventually join a conference will be when the networks won’t pay competitive money to Notre Dame and the financial gap is too substantial.
#5: The Road to 24
I feel the sweet spot for the Big Ten if the ACC gets raided is 24 schools.
To me four schools to me would be “Big Ten locks” on the way to 24 schools:
- Stanford & Cal – Stanford is the best athletic department in the country, as they are winners of 26 of 29 Directors’ Cups. The program boasts 134 national championships, winning one for 47 consecutive years since 1976, and has nearly 300 Olympic Medals from alums. Cal has just as much success winning 42 national championships. Both schools proximity to San Francisco, the No. 4 market in the United States, boosts their cause as well.
- Virginia & Virginia Tech – Virginia is the ideal target, I think a lot of political pressure will be had to ensure that both schools are a package deal. Virginia Tech might not be at the Big Ten level of academics, but they will grow into it. The key add is capping the DMV market and adding the state of Virginia to the Big Ten portfolio.
The last two spots depend on Florida State’s next move.
If Florida State becomes a Big Ten member, I firmly believe you will see Miami become a Big Ten member as well.
Miami’s emphasis on wanting to be a Public Ivy, its recent addition to becoming an AAU school, and having Florida State in the same conference influences them landing in the Big Ten more.
If Florida State does not become a member this opens the door in a different direction.
I think Boston College becomes viable here. Boston College academically fits the Big Ten well, it is the missing piece in the Bos-Wash megalopolis (Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Washington DC metropolitan areas) the Big Ten doesn’t have.
The final piece to me is then a toss up between Miami and Georgia Tech.
Miami isn’t 100% out of the picture without Florida State, but it becomes more of a tossup. If it was older Miami regimes that were very concentrated on academics I would be more confident in them being in the Big Ten no matter what.
Georgia Tech because they left the SEC before over academic policy and I feel they would only go back to the SEC if it were their only option. If the Big Ten is in play, they already play, in my example, Boston College, Virginia, Virginia Tech, and would add back into the fold Maryland. Rutgers is right in line with travel. That is five conference opponents that the travel doesn’t break them. Penn State is in line with them so it makes sense from a travel perspective.
I don’t feel Notre Dame at this time in the future will decide to join a conference or be forced to. If they decide they want to be in the Big Ten, and the conference is at 24 schools, they will always add for Notre Dame.
I do feel in the future by 2050, Notre Dame will be in a conference. The lack of media revenue will eventually catch up to them.
This should all play out over the next decade, this will be an interesting to see where college sports is at that time.
