In almost a yearly occurrence, Alabama continues to dominate under the guidance of Nick Saban. It is never the case of rebuilding. It’s constantly reloading in Tuscaloosa, and it’s no different in 2023. A similar feat can be said for the LSU Tigers and Brian Kelly, as he enters his second season in Baton Rouge and tries to keep pace with the Crimson Tide.
Despite the two tycoons at the top of the division, the SEC West has been competitive historically. Can Texas A&M make noise? Will Auburn earn a bowl bid in the first year of the Hugh Freeze experiment? Will Mississippi State keep rolling despite the passing of Mike Leach?
All those questions will get answered, and a lot more as the conference shifts from CBS-based coverage to ABC and ESPN this fall.
My SEC West predictions
7. Auburn – 2023 record prediction – (4-8, 3-5 SEC)
Auburn enters a new era with the recent hiring of Hugh Freeze away from Liberty. With a new coach also comes new pieces. After missing a bowl bid in 2022 and finishing 5-7, the Tigers face a problematic SEC slate and many question marks on both sides of the ball.
What isn’t a one, however, is the quarterback position. The Tigers finally found a pocket passer in Payton Thorne from Michigan State, who was a prominent piece of the Spartans’ 2021 Fiesta Bowl victory against Pittsburgh. Thorne demonstrated why Michigan State was high on him to begin his recruitment, as he finished 29-of-50 passing with 354 yards and three touchdown tosses.
Despite a down year in 2022, the Tigers bring in a signal-caller who is seasoned in winning close games and has postseason experience. The Tigers have not sniffed a bowl berth since 2021 and have not reached the national title game in nearly a decade. The addition of Thorne could change those fortunes, though the same realities of the SEC West also remain a factor.
Elsewhere, the Tigers will be led by their top running back, Jarquez Hunter, who enters his junior season. Although the Tigers’ offense finished 11th in the SEC in scoring a season ago, Hunter was still productive, as he rushed for 675 yards while tailing seven touchdowns. With so much turnover within the program, including the addition of offensive coordinator Phillip Montgomery from Tulsa, Hunter will have to balance a pass-heavy Tigers attack that didn’t crack the FBS’ top 100 a season ago.
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The receiving corp is practically brand-new. Auburn hit the transfer portal hard in the winter and spring to fix the offense. Its most significant addition is Caleb Burton from Ohio State, and despite the Buckeyes’ on-field success a year ago, Burton never saw playing time in his freshman season. The former four-star prospect will look for a fresh start with the Tigers, as fellow portal standouts will also join him. Most notably, tight end Rivaldo Fairweather transferred in from FIU and wideout Nick Mardner was a top target for the Cincinnati Bearcats in 2022.
Defensively is where Auburn might struggle mightily. Like the offense, the Tigers are led by a new coordinator in Ron Roberts, whose previous spot saw him lead the Big 12’s Baylor Bears defense to a top-four conference finish, according to Sports-Reference.
Despite that, the SEC West is a different beast, as Auburn will have to face highly-touted teams in Alabama, LSU, and Georgia, all of whom have great defensive fronts in their own right. Nonetheless, Auburn will have to claw its way to six wins, which might be easier said than done in Freeze’s first season.
https://twitter.com/auburnfootball/status/1672590529551319040
6. Mississippi State – 2023 record prediction – (5-7, 4-4 SEC)
Similarly to Auburn, the Mississippi State Bulldogs are going through a coaching change of their own, an unexpected one at that. Mike Leach, a staple of college football for several decades, spent his final three seasons with the Bulldogs before tragically passing away ahead of their’ January ReliaQuest Bowl victory against Illinois in Tampa, Fla.
Despite finishing 9-4, the Bulldogs would have to go through internal changes to move forward with their on-field progress. In doing so, they promoted three-year defensive coordinator Zach Arnett as the program’s 35th head coach.
Though that might seem like the right move on a surface-type level, the Bulldogs will have to overcome much more than just a new coach.
Although Will Rogers returns as quarterback for Mississippi State, he will be tasked with adapting to a new, balanced style of play as compared to the Air Raid offense Leach famously ran everywhere he went. Kevin Barbay is now at the controls as offensive coordinator, but fortunately for the ex-Grambling State quarterback, he also serves as Rogers’ position coach. This could potentially make the relationship much more fluent, along with an ease of transition. Rogers won’t be all alone, however.
Joining him on offense is a wealth of experience, which includes more touches for senior running back Jo’quavious Marks, who rushed for nearly 600 yards while tacking on nine touchdowns. To compliment Marks, Rogers has the benefit of getting back star wideouts Jaden Walley and Lideatrick Griffin, who also enter their senior seasons, respectively. Combined, both men found the end zone seven times and will look to continue their big-time play routine this coming fall.
Upfront, the Bulldogs remain one of the best lines in the SEC, while defensively, they bring back the two-headed monster in NFL linebacker hopefuls Jett Johnson and Nathaniel Watson. The pair led the SEC with a whopping 228 tackles between them a season ago.
The biggest knock the Bulldogs have, hence their lower placement in the SEC West’s projected standings, is their schedule. A brutal, potential season-defining stretch beginning in late September will seem them away from the comfort of Starkville in three out of five games. These include traveling to South Carolina, Arkansas, and Auburn. Not to mention having to host a national title contender in Alabama, along with an always tricky Kentucky team led by Mark Stoops.
https://twitter.com/hailstatefb/status/1671611696773832704
5. Texas A&M – 2023 record prediction – (7-5, 5-3 SEC)
The Texas A&M Aggies enter the 2023 season with a clean slate and high expectations to reclaim their one-minted SEC glory. Jimbo Fisher understood the assignment after finishing tied for dead last a season ago. Everything that went wrong did go wrong, resulting in one of the worst seasons in program history
A productive off-season sees signs of progress in College Station, as Fisher reloaded with several pieces to get over the hump and earn a bowl berth.
A common theme within the SEC West is the influx of coordinator changes. The Aggies are no different, as Bobby Petrino will lead an Aggie offense with a lot of talent, which includes several breakout stars, including quarterback Conner Weigman. Weigman saw action in five games but the team struggled immensely when it mattered most, all thanks to several injuries on both sides of the ball.
Similarly to Nebraska a year ago, the Aggies were also done in by close, one-score games, as six of their losses came down to the fourth quarter. If one of those goes their way, they would have extended their season by one game, but it wasn’t meant to happen. Those concerns are in a position to go away thanks to the likes of wideout Ainias Smith and his return from a leg injury. The running back room remains uncertain, as does the offensive line with several new faces.
The Aggies also made improvements by returning their two defensive stalwarts in McKinnley Jackson and Demani Richardson, who both struggled to find consistency a year ago.
For a team who only averaged 22.8 points per game in 2022, a lot will have to go right for the Aggies to earn a bowl bid.
Going undefeated in nonconference play, which includes a Power Five opponent in the Miami Hurricanes in Week 2, will be paramount for the rest of the season. The Aggies face a difficult midpoint which includes road games against Arkansas and Tennessee but host the likes of Alabama and Mississippi State. To go bowling or sniff a potential ranking, they’ll have to win at least two of those four in that stretch.
Texas A&M finishes the regular season with a road game in Baton Rouge on Thanksgiving weekend, which could very well be a must-win to keep LSU’s SEC West hopes alive.
https://twitter.com/aggiefootball/status/1674594240159006720
4. Arkansas – 2023 record prediction – (8-4, 6-2 SEC)
Arkansas capped off a challenging 2022 season with one of the most electrifying bowl games in recent years, outlasting the Kansas Jayhawks in a 55-53 overtime thriller to give the Razorbacks a plus-.500 record.
The Razorbacks have steadily improved under Sam Pittman in nearly every year the 61-year-old has been there. From the looks of it, there are no signs of slowing down, as the team is coming off back-to-back bowl appearances after finishing 3-7 in 2020.
The good news for Arkansas is it has a quarterback it can count on to keep them in every game it plays in. KJ Jefferson won’t just be one of the conference’s best gunslingers this year, but one of the nation’s best. Jefferson threw for over 2,000 yards and 22 touchdowns a season ago while connecting on nearly 70% of his passes. Not to mention the fact he rarely turns the ball over, as he only threw four interceptions all season.
The Razorbacks also return Raheim Sanders who rushed for over 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns, along with deep threats in Jadon Hazelwood and Matt Landers, as the pair combined for 10 touchdown catches.
Zach Williams led the Razorbacks with 4.5 sacks and will help anchor a defensive front that struggled to stop teams from chugging up yards, as they nearly gave up 500 per game.
Arkansas has a favorable schedule and benefits from home games against Texas A&M, Auburn, and Mississippi State. It will have to find road wins against Alabama or LSU to have a shot at reaching a potential eight-game win total.
https://twitter.com/razorbackfb/status/1670197416010629120
3. Ole Miss – 2023 record prediction – (9-3, 6-2 SEC)
Ole Miss sticks with Lane Kiffin in 2023 after a disastrous conclusion to the 2022 regular season. The Rebels looked well on their way to a College Football Playoff appearance in 2023 after a 7-0 start but lost five of six to end the regular season.
Ole Miss eventually lost the Texas Bowl but now has a clean slate.
Though there is uncertainty as to who will start at quarterback, all three candidates are suitable options. The Rebels most notably brought in Walker Howard, a top transfer quarterback from LSU who was a highly-touted recruit out of St. Thomas Moore High School. He is also competing with the likes of Jaxson Dart, who appeared in 13 games and threw for over 600 yards in 2022. The Rebels also have Spencer Sanders, who spent time at Oklahoma State before transferring to Ole Miss in the spring. Nonetheless, the quarterback battle will be one to watch as fall camp gets underway.
What is not uncertain, however, is who is getting touches for the Rebels in the backfield. Quinshon Judkins is back after an electrifying All-SEC freshman campaign that saw him chug up over 1,000 yards and 16 touchdowns, which is a program record. Chances are, opposing defenses will have to be careful in game-planning for one of college football’s best-skill position players.
The Rebels can also batter teams on the outside as well. Although they lost their two best receivers from a year ago in Malik Heath and Jonathan Mingo, the Rebels got help from the transfer portal to fill the void with the addition of Tre Harris from Louisiana Tech.
Defensively, the Rebels have a new face in Alabama’s Pete Golding as coordinator. The Rebels struggled immensely with keeping leads, as they gave up 35 points per game and lost several tight games late in the year.
Jared Ivey and Cedric Johnson return for their senior seasons at defensive end, as they will anchor a unit that has gone through a ton of turnover in recent months.
The Rebels have a tough schedule but have the benefit of only having one ranked nonconference opponent in No. 16 Tulane. Ole Miss hosts LSU and Arkansas but will have to travel to Alabama and Georgia. Three of the final six games are on the road, which includes games against Auburn and a Thanksgiving date with Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl.
https://twitter.com/olemissfb/status/1670191645567102976
1. and 2. Alabama/LSU – 2023 record prediction – (11-1 and/or 10-2, 8-0, 7-1 SEC)
A first of its kind with this series – Alabama and LSU in the same category. Both of these teams are the class of the division and have a chance to go undefeated until they meet in Week 10. Whoever wins this game wins the SEC West and has bragging rights for 364 days. It’s a battle of the titans between Saban and Kelly, two of the most polarizing coaches in America.
Not to mention the fact that the quarterback matchup has elite potential with Monroe vs. Daniels, plus every other position group imaginable.
It is potentially the game of the year, and the countdown is on to November 4.
No. 17 vs. No. 5.
https://twitter.com/awfulannouncing/status/1589094592305324032
My SEC Championship Prediction
Georgia vs. Alabama, again. It’s too early to pick a winner, but it will be a “game of the year” candidate with the winner ending up in the national championship.
