By Patrick Weider
The Big 12 had a successful first year in the 12-team College Football Playoff, when Arizona State won the conference championship and made to advance to the CFP. The Sun Devils made it the No. 4 seed and eventually lost in overtime against Texas, but most people came away impressed with Arizona State as a program. It showed that the Big 12 earned some much-needed respect.
The Big 12 might not be a conference that ever wins a championship in the CFP era, but it is a conference that does not have any true-blue blood programs and is going to be wide open most years for teams competing to win the conference. Below are four teams that could take a step back next year.
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No. 1 Arizona State Sun Devils
Arizona State had one of the best seasons in school history when they won 11 games last year in Kenny Dillingham’s second year leading the program. A great turnaround for an Arizona State program that has been down for decades, but history tells us the Sun Devils cannot maintain that level of success. They will also be losing Cam Skattebo, the do-everything running back. He was the best player who made a lot of plays on offense for Arizona State. I expect Dillingham to continue to build a good program, but eight or nine wins seems more possible next year.
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No. 2 Colorado Buffaloes
Under Deion Sanders, Colorado quickly built a strong program in two years. I doubted him as a head coach, and I have been proven wrong every step along the way. Going from four wins to nine wins at Colorado is incredible. He has also created excitement around the program that I don’t think we have ever seen at Colorado. I still expect Colorado to fall back next season, and they might even struggle to make a bowl game.
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They are losing Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter and quarterback Shedeur Sanders, two of the stars who helped Colorado improve the program over the last two years. Losing both players will be hard for Colorado and Coach Prime to overcome because they made so many clutch plays for Colorado. Especially Hunter, as he was a difference maker at wide receiver and defensive back. Winning seven or eight games next year might be a successful season.
No. 3 Iowa State Cyclones
Matt Campbell has done an amazing job turning around Iowa State, and they are a legitimate threat every year to win the Big 12. Winning 11 games last year was an impressive effort by the Cyclones and should be applauded for the effort by Campbell and the program. I think they will fall back to earth and win between eight and nine wins next season. Part of the reason is that they won three games by three points or less. Those three games could have easily ended in losses.
Especially considering they beat Iowa 20-19, that could have been a loss to their rival. I expect Iowa State to be in the mix again for the Big 12 title, but falling back from an 11-win season seems like a good possibility.
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No. 4: BYU Cougars
BYU has built a strong program under Kalani Sitake. After a down season in 2023 when BYU won just five games, they bounced back in a big way when they won 11 games last year.
I think BYU will compete for the Big 12 title again, but I expect they might lose a few more games along the way. Like Iowa State, they won three games by three points or less. That is a small margin for victory. You flip any of those games in the other direction and the Cougars have three more losses. BYU is a good program under Sitake, but fewer victories are possible next season.
