By Alec Nederveld
In the expanded 12-team College Football playoff, five auto bids were built in for the highest-rated conference champions. Playoff seeds 1-4 are reserved for the “four highest-ranked conference champions”. That language doesn’t guarantee which conferences will be represented, but it became a near certainty that the four teams would come from the Power Four.
There is technically nothing stopping a Group of Five team from getting a bye, but there was nothing stopping a Group of Five team from making the four-team playoff, something that happened only once in 10 years.
Many don’t think a team from the Group of Five even has a chance in the CFP. A Group of Five-only playoff has been proposed, and nearly every playoff prediction puts the Group of Five team as the 12 seed. From there, they would be predicted to be blown out by the five-seed, likely Georgia, Texas, Oregon, or whoever the second-best SEC or Big Ten team is.
Still, with some special teams in the Group of Five and a Big 12 that lacks a dominant team, I believe a Group of Five team could claim the four seed above a Big 12 team if everything goes according to plan. How can this happen though?
Elite Group of Five teams in 2024
Boise State and UNLV are the two most probable teams to get a bye in 2024. UNLV is currently #25 and 4-0 with road wins over Houston and Kansas. Additionally, with QB Hajj-Malik Williams taking over, the Rebels’ best football looks to be ahead of them. In his first start, he accumulated 301 total yards and four touchdowns en route to a dominant 59-14 win over Fresno State.
With games against Syracuse, Boise State at home and trips to Oregon State, and a solid San Jose State team, UNLV has the strength of schedule and reputation to be ranked high enough if they win out.
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Boise State does have a loss, but it’s arguably the second most impressive loss of the country behind Georgia’s to Alabama. The #21-ranked 3-1 Broncos lost by only three on the road to Oregon, a game they held a lead in the fourth quarter and probably would have won without two return touchdowns for Oregon. They’re led by Ashton Jeanty, the top RB and maybe the best player in the country. He ran for 192 yards and three touchdowns against the Ducks and is on pace to break Barry Sanders’ single-season rushing record.
In addition to the Oregon game, Boise State handed Washington State their only loss 45-24, and also face Oregon State and San Jose State. A rematch against UNLV in the Mountain West championship game is also a possibility and could be another ranked win for either team.
Three other teams in the Group of Five have a fighting chance at hosting a playoff game, but it’s less likely than Boise State or UNLV. Army and Navy are both 4-0 for the first time since 1945 and are both receiving votes. Neither team has played a team with a pulse besides Navy, who played a close game against Memphis, but every other game for both teams has been a dominant win.
Unlike the Mountain West teams, Army and Navy have fewer chances to impress with their schedule. Army will play Notre Dame at Yankee Stadium, but besides that and the annual Army-Navy game, their only tough game looks to be on the road against North Texas. Navy also gets to play Notre Dame, this time at Metlife Stadium. Additionally, they will go to a solid South Florida team and host Tulane, one of the best programs in the AAC.
If either team can win out with a premier win over Notre Dame, like Cincinnati in 2021, they’d be in a great spot to get a bye.
The last team I think has a chance at a playoff bye is James Madison. They’re also 4-0 and have played their best football after a slow start to the year. Two weeks ago, they embarrassed UNC and Mack Brown with a 70-50 win. Against Ball State last week, they dominated 63-7.
Bob Chesney‘s team has looked impressive, but I’m not sure they will have the schedule to get a bye week if they win out. Assuming any of the other four teams goes undefeated, I would also rank them over James Madison.
A wide-open Big 12 could beat up on each other
Since the Big 12 reintroduced its Conference Championship game in 2017, five of the seven championships have been won by Oklahoma and Texas. And the replacements have only added to the competitive balance of the conference.
Coming into 2024, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, and Utah were seen as the Big 12 favorites. Each team has at least one loss, and some teams are looking even worse. Kansas for example is 1-4. Oklahoma State is 3-2, while Kansas State and Utah were both upset in double-digit losses to BYU and Arizona respectively, although those are their only losses.
Iowa State and BYU are the only two undefeated teams in the conference. The Cyclones are 4-0 with a comeback win over Iowa and a shutout over Houston. Ranked 16th, they’re the highest-ranked team in the conference. BYU is right behind them at 17th, including an upset at SMU and a dominant 38-9 win over Kansas State.
The Big 12 is wide open, I would still classify Kansas State and Utah as contenders, alongside one-loss Colorado, Arizona, and Texas Tech. These teams all play each other, and teams like West Virginia, UCF, and Arizona State can all pull an upset.
If the Big 12 conference champion is 10-3 or 11-2, and one of the Group of Five teams mentioned has won out, the Group of Five team may end up getting the bye, as shocking as that sounds.
