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CFP Fact or Fiction: Ohio State Woes, Texas in Trouble, Who’s the Favorite?

CFP Fact or Fiction: Can Ohio State overcome recent struggles, what is Texas’ outlook, and who is the favorite

Staff| December 10, 2024 (Updated: July 24, 2025)
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Oregon Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel (8) throws a pass Saturday
Oregon Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel (8) throws a pass Saturday

By Cole Kruger


In today’s Fact or Fiction – CFP edition – I look at three more transfer topics and decide whether the statement is indeed FACT or FICTION.


1. Ohio State will overcome its home woes against Tennessee

My Take: FICTION

The Buckeyes finished the season with an abysmal home loss against Michigan, resulting in them being left-out of the Big Ten Championship and leaving them with a home playoff game against the Tennessee Volunteers. Now, a home playoff game against an SEC opponent is not necessarily good for Ohio State, especially with Ryan Day at the helm. Day is 0-3 versus the SEC in his three games against the conference and will look to turn the tide against the Vols.

Given how Ohio State looked at home against Michigan, it is hard to believe they will bounce back in front of their home crowd, who will still be upset by the loss, even though it is a primetime game. The question still remains, can Ryan Day win a big game, and he can finally answer that question on December 21st versus a big-time SEC opponent?

Ohio State University football coach Ryan Day tries to join the team to sing Carmen Ohio after the Michigan game Saturday, November 30, 2024 in Ohio Stadium. As he was standing here, the melee was starting behind him as Michigan players tried to plant a flag at midfield.

2. Texas is in trouble

My Take: FACT

When Texas was ranked number one before their matchup against Georgia in October they had serious championship aspirations, but things have changed. Texas is coming off a loss in the SEC Championship, once again losing to Georgia, in a game where the Longhorns did not take advantage of their opportunities, and backup QB Gunner Stockton led the Dawgs to victory.

Many believed that the fifth seed in the CFP was the easiest route, but I think that couldn’t be farther from the truth. Texas will face Clemson in the first round, and with Dabo Swinney‘s experience on big stages, that will be a tougher matchup than many anticipate. Even if Texas wins that one, they would face a hot Arizona State team and one of Ohio State/Tennessee/Oregon. It is extremely hard to see Texas coming out of that side of the bracket, given how they’ve looked against top competition.

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Maybe next year with Arch Manning, Longhorn fans…

Texas Longhorns quarterbacks Arch Manning (16), left, and Quinn Ewers (3) throw passes while warming up ahead of the Longhorns' spring Orange and White game at Darrell K Royal Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas, April 20, 2024.

3. The Oregon Ducks are the overwhelming favorites to win it all

My Take: FACT

Surprise, surprise the number one team in the nation is the favorite to win the National Championship. The Oregon Ducks, coming off a Big Ten championship in their first year in the league, will have a first-round bye before facing the winner of Ohio State/Tennessee. Dillion Gabriel and the offense looked incredible against a top-notch Penn State defense last week, and it is hard to imagine there is a defense in the playoff that could stop that offense.

The Ducks also have one of the easiest paths to the Championship, as their side of the bracket is the easier of the two. The main concern with the Ducks is their defense – specifically the run defense – as Penn State had their way with them. I would trust this Oregon offense and Dan Lanning against anyone in the bracket, and they should be the overwhelming favorites to win it all. 

Dec 7, 2024; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Oregon Ducks running back Jordan James (20) reacts after rushing for a touchdown against the Penn State Nittany Lions during the fourth quarter in the 2024 Big Ten Championship game at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Category: College Football, Fact or Fiction, NewsTag: Big Ten, College Football Playoff, Dabo Swinney, Dan Lanning, Dillon Gabriel, Georgia Bulldogs, Gunner Stockton, Oregon Ducks, Ryan Day, SEC, Tennessee Volunteers, Texas Longhorns
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