The Investor Class: Week 9 Board Room Angles
By Rock Westfall
The College Football Investor Class has an attractive lineup of opportunities, including the Cocktail Party, Prime Time in Prime Time, An Angry Lions Den, the Game of the Week, and much more.
Rock Chalk Balk vs. OU?
Oklahoma at Kansas +10 (5-2, 2-2), 12 p.m. ET, FOX
The line has stayed at its opening price of Oklahoma -10.
The Sooners got the money in their first six games before failing to cover their 31-29 win over UCF last week. Kansas QB Jalon Daniels is questionable (back). But his backup, Jason Bean, has been effective. The Kansas defense (97th) failed to hold a 32-27 4th-quarter lead in a 39-32 loss at Oklahoma State. KU is coming off a bye that followed that defeat.
OU failed to cover four of its last five as road favorites of 10 points or less. KU is 5-3-1 against the spread as home dogs of 10 points or less. Kansas covered five of its last six against Oklahoma.
On the other hand, Kansas is losing board value (3-8 ATS last 11) due to its greater public notoriety and opponents taking them more seriously.
Hoosiers Limp Into Angry Lions Den
Indiana (2-5, 0-4) at Penn State -32 (6-1, 3-1), 12 p.m. ET, CBS
The Nittany Lions are angry and motivated after their 20-12 loss at Ohio State. And it’s fair to ask how the putrid Indiana offense (118th) will score against the Penn State (1st) defense.
Penn State has covered five of its last six games after losing. Also, PSU is 9-5 ATS as a home chalk of 28 or more points. Indiana is 5-5 ATS as a road dog in that range. The Nits got the cash in four of their last five home games against the Hoosiers.
The motivational intangible belongs to coach James Franklin and Penn State. It’s a matter of Big Game James keeping his foot on the gas.
Dirty Dana Defenseless Against Wildcat Strike?
Houston (3-4, 1-3) at Kansas State -17 (5-2, 3-1), 12 p.m. ET, ESPN2
Of major concern is the Cougars’ clawless defense (114th). Also, the Cougars have no ground game (108th). Head coach Dana Holgorsen reached a new level of frustration in last week’s close home loss to Texas.
Resurgent K-State has kicked into gear with its two QBs, Will Howard and Avery Johnson, splitting time. The tandem leads a dynamic rushing attack (4th). Kansas State does not turn the ball over but ranks 112th against the pass.
Houston is 4-4 ATS as a road dog. K-State is a reliable 7-3 ATS when laying 14+ points at home.
Oregon Steps Into the Muss Against Utes in Game of the Week
Oregon (6-1, 3-1) at Utah (6-1, 3-1) +7, 3:30 p.m. ET, FOX
Oregon opened as a -5-point favorite and was bet up to 7-points.
Initially, the Utah price looks attractive. How could the Utes be 7-point home dogs, even against a quality Oregon team? Well, Utah is down to junior Bryson Barnes at QB. Cam Rising is out for the season (knee), and redshirt freshman Nate Johnson was ineffective in a loss to UCLA. Yet Bryson was the hero in last week’s epic comeback win at USC.
Of concern is that Utah has covered only one of its last five as home dogs. By contrast, Oregon got the money in its last five as a road chalk. The home team saw the payout window in the last five meetings between the Ducks and Utes.
Ultimately, the betting public is concerned about the matchup of Utah’s offense (100th) against Oregon’s defense (16th points allowed).
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Cocktails Anyone?
Georgia (7-0, 4-0) vs. Florida (5-2, 3-1) +14.5, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS
Georgia opened as a -14-point favorite, and the line has fluctuated between -14.5 to -15 points.
Georgia is a consistent overlay as one of the most public teams on the board. The Bulldogs have seen the cashier’s cage in only two of their seven 2023 matchups. Also, some investors are disturbed that All-World tight end Brock Bowers is out (ankle). He was a dominant element of the UGA attack. After failing to pay in four of their first five outings, Florida got the cash in its last two games.
Florida QB Graham Mertz has thrived with a 163 QBR, 1872 yards, and a 12-2 TD/INT ratio.
The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party in Jacksonville will draw massive attention and betting handle. Georgia should be more focused than usual. But Florida has recent momentum.
Despite the investor class complaining and its weak board value, Georgia flashes the metrics of a complete team (7th scoring, 7th points allowed). Florida has been forced to rely too much on Mertz.
With the national spotlight and quality rivalry opponent, Georgia may finally rise to the occasion with a strong performance.
Whiskey or Bourbon?
Tennessee (5-2, 2-2) at Kentucky (5-2, 2-2) +3.5, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN
Kentucky has had two weeks to stew after a 31-28 home loss to Missouri. It was its second straight failure to pay. Tennessee was embarrassed by its inability to finish in a 34-20 loss at Alabama last week.
Big Orange Nation and gamblers are frustrated with Tennessee QB Joe Milton III. Tennessee’s passing attack (76th) is no longer an asset. But Kentucky’s air game is even worse (105th). And the U of K defense ranks 106th against the pass, perhaps offering Milton a shot at redemption.
Still, Kentucky fans will be fired up for the prime-time ESPN affair against the hated Vols. The game is a chance for Kentucky coach Mark Stoops to change the narrative after a bad month.
Tennessee covered only two of its previous six as a road favorite of 4 points or less. Kentucky returned with the cash in two of its last three as home dogs in that range. And the Wildcats are 6-1 ATS as home pups overall.
However, Tennessee fully manages the cashier’s cage in this series with 13 covers in their last 16 games against Kentucky.
CU in Prime Time Saturday Night!
Colorado (4-3, 1-3) at UCLA (5-2, 2-2) -17, 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC
UCLA opened as a 15-point favorite and was bet up to -17.
This matchup is Colorado’s first game since their catastrophic 46-43 home loss to Stanford, in which they blew a 29-point lead. Colorado is the ultimate Fan Boy, casual, square’s commodity and has had the value bet right out of them. The Buffs covered their first two games but have since paid in only one of their last five outings.
CU’s interior lines are another liability to its value. The Buffs rank 128th for rushing offense and 133rd for defense. They are one of the most penalized teams in college football.
Last week, UCLA easily covered a 42-7 win at Stanford in stark contrast to common opponents. The Bruins rank 9th for rushing offense and 10th for points allowed. Head coach Chip Kelly has a quietly solid program, which is just how he likes it.
The visit from Coach Prime and the Buffs will spike ticket sales and betting activity. NBC is thrilled to get Prime Time in Prime Time. No doubt sportsbooks are happy about the circumstances, too.
If Colorado is to get back on track for a bowl quest, this game would be the one. But can the Buffs overcome their own gravity?
