By Ty Scheiner
The margin for error in wins and losses is so fine in college football that a few bounces the wrong way, a turnover here, or a penalty there can be the difference between wins and losses. For some teams, it can mean the difference between becoming bowl-eligible. While some teams build on their previous successes, others struggle to maintain momentum due to various challenges such as coaching changes, the transfer portal, and tougher schedules. As we look ahead to the 2024 season, here are five teams that made a bowl game in 2023 but are likely to miss out on the postseason this year.
UCLA Bruins
UCLA is coming off an 8-5 season, finishing strong by beating Boise State in the LA Bowl. However, heading into the 2024 season, the Bruins face significant challenges. With the loss of their head coach, key players to the draft and the portal, and a move to the more challenging Big Ten conference, the outlook for UCLA making it back to a bowl isn’t great. Rookie head coach Deshaun Foster will be overseeing a rebuild, especially on defense, where nine starters and their coordinator, D’Anton Lynn, have departed from a unit that ranked eighth in the FBS for expected points allowed per play.
Although Foster is assembling a promising staff, this year appears to be a rebuilding one. The offense boasts a deep wide receiver group with J. Michael Sturdivant and Logan Loya, and with Eric Bieniemy calling the plays, TJ Harden will be the focus in the running game. Ethan Garbers, a reliable game manager, will be under center. The bigger concern is the defense, likely to regress due to significant losses. With one of the toughest schedules in the FBS, including road games against LSU, Penn State, Nebraska, and Washington, and home games against Oregon and Iowa, the Bruins face an uphill battle to reach six wins.
New Mexico State Aggies
New Mexico State is coming off its second-best year in school history, but with the retirement of head coach Jerry Kill and the departure of starting QB Diego Pavia to Vanderbilt, the Aggies face a challenging 2024. Pavia led the team in rushing with 923 yards last year, so they’ll need to replace that production. The transfer portal didn’t help, as their leading wide receiver, Kordel David, returns, but with only 203 yards last season, the Aggies will need to find additional receiving threats.
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The defense, one of the best units in Conference USA last season, lost significant production to the portal at all levels. While new head coach Tony Sanchez has brought in some talent, it remains to be seen how the new players will perform. Their schedule is tough, and with a new coach and the loss of a majority of last year’s ten-win team, a significant step back seems likely. Three wins last year were by one score or less. Games against Liberty, Fresno State, and Texas A&M appear to be out of reach. Even in winnable games against UTEP, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee, and Western Kentucky, regression might set in, and the Aggies might not replicate last year’s success. It looks like a rebuilding year for Sanchez and the Aggies.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Despite Brent Key’s promising start in his first year, Georgia Tech might take a step back this year, although they might be the best team on this list based on returning talent. Key did an excellent job in his first year, getting the most out of his team, with unexpected wins against Miami and UNC, and unfortunate losses to Louisville and Bowling Green.
They return a significant amount of production with Haynes King at QB and Jamal Haynes at RB, along with an offensive line that led the ACC in rushing last season. However, turnovers were an issue, with 21 last year and those will need to be addressed. Defensively, they allowed an average of 29.5 points per game and lost several top playmakers to P4 schools via the transfer portal. The schedule doesn’t set up well either, with games against Florida State, an improved Syracuse, Louisville, Duke, UNC seeking revenge, Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, Miami, NC State, and Georgia. They have clear wins against Georgia State and VMI, but finding four more wins in 2024 might be a challenge.
Oregon State Beavers
Oregon State had a rough offseason following the Pac-12 conference realignment. They lost head coach Jonathan Smith to Michigan State, starting QB DJ Uiagalelei to Florida State, starting RB Damien Martinez to the Miami Hurricanes, key members of their coaching staff, and several players to the transfer portal. Additionally, they are essentially on the outside looking in when it comes to finding a conference home.
While their schedule may be slightly easier compared to last year, the loss of talent cannot be ignored. The Beavers face a tough season in the Mountain West. Their only sure win appears to be their first game against Idaho State; the rest of the schedule features challenging matchups such as at Oregon, at California, and at Boise State. Reaching six wins this year looks unlikely for Trent Bray and the Beavers.
Old Dominion Monarchs
Old Dominion plays tough under coach Ricky Rahne, who has consistently gotten the most out of his players. Unfortunately, this G5 success often leads to losses in the transfer portal, and the Monarchs were heavily impacted. In addition to the portal losses, the offensive line, one of the weakest units last year (allowing 62 sacks, ranked dead last in the nation), hasn’t significantly improved.
Their out-of-conference schedule looks challenging with games against South Carolina, East Carolina, Virginia Tech, and Bowling Green. Within the Sun Belt, they face Coastal Carolina, Georgia State, App State, and Arkansas State on the road. Even home games against Texas State, Georgia Southern, JMU, and Marshall will be difficult. With a drop in talent and a demanding schedule, achieving bowl eligibility will be a challenge for Old Dominion.
Every season brings new surprises and unpredictability in college football. While some teams may exceed expectations, others will inevitably face setbacks. UCLA, New Mexico State, Georgia Tech, Oregon State, and Old Dominion are all encountering significant challenges in the 2024 season, making bowl eligibility unlikely for them. This isn’t a reflection of the program’s long-term potential, but given their current situation, I don’t see them returning to a bowl game next year as they did in the previous season.
