By Rock Westfall
Championship weekend offers some potential hidden gems and reality checks.
Pac-12 Championship – Oregon’s Mulligan
Oregon (11-1, 8-1) vs. Washington (12-0, 9-0) +9, 55.5
8 p.m. ET, ABC (Friday)
Oregon opened as a -7.5 point favorite and was bet up to -9 at most books.
Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas will host this game.
The 2023 coaching carousel rages on, but this weekend opens with a potential Friday night instant classic from the Pac-12.
Key Matchup: Washington’s 96th-ranked defense (124th vs. the pass) against Oregon’s 2nd-ranked offense.
Speaking of matchups, the Heisman Trophy quarterback duel between Oregon’s Bo Nix and Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. is a noteworthy one.
More Sports News
Oregon is the more balanced and complete team. But there is legitimate concern about too much casual money and conventional “wisdom” raising its price too high.
The Ducks have been a superb value this season with ten payouts in 12 games. By contrast, Washington got the money only five times in 2023.
Oregon and head coach Dan Lanning have often lamented losing at Washington 36-33 on October 14 because of reckless 4th down gambles. Now they get their shot at proving they are the better team. The public certainly sees it that way, which may offer value to Husky backers.
MAC Championship – A Hidden Gem
Miami-OH (10-2, 7-1) vs. Toledo (11-1, 8-0) -7.5, 44
12 p.m. ET, ESPN
Toledo opened as a -6.5 point favorite and was bet up to -7.5 at most books.
Ford Field in Detroit is the host venue.
This matchup between two excellent MAC teams with tradition is not to be missed. It could be the hidden gem on the Saturday card.
Key Matchup: Miami’s 102nd-ranked offense vs. Toledo’s 28th-ranked scoring defense.
Toledo has the firepower advantage, ranking 20th for scoring offense. Both teams are strong defensively. Toledo coach Jason Candle is a rising star on the 2023 coaching carousel.
Miami got the cash in nine out of its 12 games this season. But Toledo is in top form with four payouts in its last five games. Toledo won at Miami 21-17 on October 21, covering as -2.5 point chalk.
Big 12 Championship – Pistols Firing at Sark the Shark
Oklahoma State (9-3, 7-2) vs. Texas (11-1, 8-1) -14.5, 55
12 p.m. ET, ABC
Texas opened as a -11.5 point favorite and was bet up to -14.5 at almost all books. The Texas brand is much more appealing to squares, and the price reflects that. Bargain hunters may shop tenacious OSU at its enhanced price.
AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX, will host this matchup.
Key Matchup: Oklahoma State’s 115th-ranked defense vs. the 14th-ranked Texas offense.
Public perception and casual betting have increased the Texas price by a field goal in just a couple of days. Oklahoma State is one of the country’s most underrated teams, but the Longhorns have the more talented and deeper roster.
Oklahoma State covered its last four games as a dog, including a 27-24 upset win as 6-point home pups to an Oklahoma team that beat Texas in the Red River Shootout.
These teams did not meet in the regular season.
https://twitter.com/BradenBush21/status/1728581005202669672
SEC Championship – Battle of the Mega-Brand Titans
Georgia (12-0, 8-0) vs. Alabama (11-1, 8-0) +5, 53.5
4 p.m. ET, CBS
Georgia opened as a -4 point favorite and was bet up to -5 at most books.
Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta is the host venue. This matchup is the final SEC broadcast on CBS, which ends a historic and iconic partnership that began in 1996.
Key Matchup: Alabama’s 49th-ranked offense vs. the 6th-ranked Georgia scoring defense.
Certainly, Georgia is the more complete team here. The line would likely be higher if not for the public power of Alabama’s brand on the board. These teams did not meet in the regular season. Alabama is coming off its Grave-Digger miracle win at Auburn last week. Is there anything left in the tank? But is it ever wise to bet against Nick Saban?
Alabama covered five of its last seven games as an underdog. Georgia failed to get the money in three of its last four as a chalk of -6 points or less.
https://twitter.com/CBSSportsCFB/status/1729689292279083046
ACC Championship – The Missing Link
Louisville (10-2, 7-1) vs. Florida State (12-0, 8-0) -2.5, 48.5
8 p.m. ET, ABC
Florida State opened as a -6.5 point favorite and was bet down to -2.5 at most books. Most squares are scared to take FSU without the injured star QB Jordan Travis. Thus, casual money is flooding the betting windows for Louisville, offering value potential to FSU.
Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte will host this matchup.
Key Matchup: Florida State backup QB Tate Rodemaker vs. the 19th-ranked Louisville defense.
Louisville was ignored by the masses most of the year, which helped put the Cardinals in the black at season’s end. Florida State was a popular public brand that lost steam, failing to cover three of its final four matchups.
These teams did not meet in 2023. Louisville’s Jeff Brohm was the key piece in last year’s coaching carousel and has led a major rebuild.
Louisville covered five of its last seven games as dogs of +3 points or less. But FSU paid in three of its last four as favorites in that price range.
https://twitter.com/barstoolsports/status/1728625703388869089
Big Ten Championship – How Will Iowa Score?
Michigan (12-0, 9-0) vs. Iowa (10-2, 7-2) +23, 35.5
8 p.m. ET, FOX
Michigan opened as a -23 point favorite and has maintained that price at most books.
Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis is the venue.
Key Matchup: Iowa’s 133rd-ranked offense vs. Michigan’s 1st-ranked scoring defense.
It is legitimate to ask how Iowa can score against Michigan’s rock-ribbed defense outside of kick returns, turnovers, or flukes that might set them up.
Of major concern is the price. The oddsmakers set the number high in anticipation of public perception and the lack of brand appeal by Iowa. Michigan can grind this game out in a dominant fashion without covering the number. Yet Iowa’s lack of offense makes them a hard sell to stay within the spread.
Iowa failed to cover its last five games as double-digit dogs. Michigan saw the payout window in four of its last six as favorites in that price range.
Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh returns to the sidelines after a three-game suspension.
