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The Investor Class: Week 10 Board Room Angles

The Investor Class has an outstanding Week 10 lineup of feature games and betting angles to go with them.

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Sep 4
Sep 4

By Rock Westfall

The Investor Class has an outstanding Week 10 lineup of feature games and betting angles to go with them. The day begins with Dabo Swinney and Clemson’s last stand against Notre Dame. Also featured is Kansas State at Texas, Missouri at Georgia, Washington at USC, and LSU at Alabama.

Dabo and Clemson’s Last Stand vs. Notre Dame 

Notre Dame (7-2) at Clemson (4-4, 2-4) +3

12 p.m. ET, ABC

Notre Dame opened as a three-point favorite, and the line has stayed steady.

Clemson coach Dabo Swinney is beginning to crack under fire in a lost season caused largely by his defiant loathing of the transfer portal and NIL.

Notre Dame has paid in eight of its last ten away games. The investor class is disgusted with Clemson’s recent lack of board value (2-7 against the spread). Clemson came up empty against the odds in four of its last five as a dog. And the Tigers are 2-5 ATS as home dogs. However, Notre Dame cashed the winning ticket in only one of its last six as road favorites of four points or less. 

Clemson’s plodding offense (64th scoring) does not match well against Notre Dame’s 10th-ranked scoring defense.

There will be the hype of Clemson circling the wagons for Dabo at Death Valley. But plenty of gamblers wonder if it will matter against coach Marcus Freeman’s soaring Notre Dame team. Dabo’s recent rants are not inspiring confidence.

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And yet, Notre Dame is too public of a brand on its best days. Public sentiment is against Dabo and Clemson. Teams often offer the most value when the masses turn on them. And Saturday’s Clemson board value could double based on the Fighting Irish’s recent form and iconic brand, which are baked into the price.  

Clemson had Florida State on the ropes earlier this season in Death Valley. The Tigers are not without talent and program pride. And Notre Dame, while improved, is still short of the trusted power program status.

Texas and Kansas State Clash For Big 12 Supremacy

Kansas State (6-2, 4-1) at Texas (7-1, 4-1) -5

12 p.m. ET, FOX

FOX Big Noon Saturday heads to Austin for a Big 12 showdown with championship implications.

Texas opened as a five-point favorite, and the line has not moved.

Kansas State is rolling with three consecutive blowout wins and covers. The Wildcats have covered four of their last five games. But Kansas State saw the payout window in just three of its last eight as a road dog of seven points or less. Texas has paid in four of its last seven as home favorites in that range. Texas has won and covered its last three games against KSU. The Horns hooked K-State for the money in four of their last five home games in this series.

Texas QB Quinn Ewers remains out indefinitely (shoulder). Last week, redshirt freshman Maalik Murphy was serviceable (15-25, 170 YDS, 2/1 TD/INT), replacing Ewers in a 35-7 Texas win over BYU.

Texas’ defense ranks 15th against the rush and for points allowed. That could pose problems for the 5th-ranked K-State rushing offense and dual-QB threat of Will Howard and Avery Johnson.

Missouri Seeks Upset at Georgia For SEC East Lead

Missouri (7-1, 3-1) at Georgia (8-0, 5-0) -16

3:30 p.m. ET, CBS

Georgia opened as a 15-point chalk and was bet up to -16.

Last year, Missouri had Georgia on the ropes deep into the 4th quarter before losing 26-22. The Tigers are coming off a bye week. Georgia routed Florida last week 43-20 in its best performance of 2023.

Mizzou failed to cover five of its last seven as road dogs of 14+ points. Georgia’s lack of value at Sanford Stadium greatly concerns the Investor Class. UGA saw the payout window in only five of its last 20 games as home chalk of -14+ points. Mizzou has covered six of its last eight against Georgia and four of its previous five trips to Sanford Stadium. There will be a flood of casual money on the powerful Bulldog brand for this matchup.

Georgia’s massacre of Florida last week could be an indicator that they are finally ready to roll. The Bulldogs should be focused and ready for a good Mizzou team that almost got them in 2022. Coach Eli Drinkwitz and Missouri could be rusty with its momentum stalled after a week off.

USC Hosts Washington In Redemption Opportunity

Washington (8-0, 5-0) at USC (7-2, 5-1) +3.5

7:30 p.m. ET, ABC

Washington opened as a three-point road favorite and was bet up to -3.5.

The powerful USC image and brand may not reflect reality, but it still draws considerable wagering activity from the masses.

USC’s horrible defense and sloppy soft play are well-documented. The Troy Boys have busted bankrolls with six consecutive losses to the oddsmakers. However, Washington has failed to get the money in its last four matchups.  Washington is 4-2 vs. the odds as a road favorite of four points or less. But USC got the money in its last three home games as a dog in that range. Washington got the cash in eight of its last 11 games vs. USC, including two of its previous three trips to the LA Coliseum.

Washington’s defense ranks 99th overall and 118th against the pass, which could open a path of opportunity for USC QB Caleb Williams. But the godforsaken Troy Boy defense could well be lit up by Washington QB and Heisman Trophy candidate Michael Pennix Jr.

USC has not shown the character or toughness to beat good teams in 2023. But Washington’s value has been fading. And the Huskies are coming off a near disaster at Stanford (a 42-33 win) last week.

Alabama Seeks Revenge on LSU in Death Valley

LSU (6-2, 4-1) at Alabama (7-1, 5-0) -3

7:45 p.m. ET, CBS

Alabama opened as a four-point favorite but was bet down to -3.

The revenge angle is getting plenty of play for this rivalry showdown. LSU upset the Tide 32-31 in a home overtime thriller last year to win the SEC West Division. Both teams are coming off bye weeks. LSU coach Brian Kelly lives to beat Nick Saban. In turn, Saban is obsessed with getting even for last year.

Alabama has covered two of its last three on the rare occasion they were a home favorite of seven points or less. As favorites of three points or less at any location, the Crimson Tide lost only once in their last nine times vs. the odds. By contrast, LSU paid in just two of its last seven games as road dogs of four points or less. LSU got the money in four of its last six against Alabama, including two straight. The Bayou Bengals have also come away with the cash in their last three visits to T-Town.

LSU’s defense is improving but still ranks 92nd overall and 77th for points allowed. That may offer some opportunities to the pedestrian Alabama offense, ranked 81st overall and 51st for scoring. Of course, LSU brings the top-ranked scoring offense in the country, which may keep things interesting against the Tide’s 16th-ranked scoring defense.

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